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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: Why the extended primary is good for the Democrats |
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The population of New Mexico and West Virginia are nearly the same.
NM contains 1.9 million people and is ranked the 36th most populous state in the nation; 49% of voters are registered Democrat
WV contains 1.8 million people and is ranked the 37th most populous state in the nation; 56% of voters are registered Democrat
NM was one of the crush of Super Tuesday states, so it did not get the attention it deserved. At least, not until it turned out to be a squeeker for Clinton.
Just under 150,000 votes were cast in the NM primary.
Turning to WV, we notice that as of this moment, 2/3ds of the precincts have reported, and Clinton has 133,000 votes, almost the combined total of all the votes cast in the NM primary.
But Kuros, you may argue, just because the Clinton voters have come out for Clinton does not mean they will come out for Barack in the Fall!
Good point, but the 2008 elections will feature more than just Presidential nominees. Jay Rockefeller (D) is up for re-election this year, as are all three Representatives.
As long as Hillary keeps away from attacking Obama, the continued primary participation can only be positive for the Democrats in the remaining states. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:26 pm Post subject: NRCC spends 20% of budget for election in MS; still loses |
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Mississippi is home to 3 million people and is the 31st most populous state in the union. 400,000 of the state's 1.7 million registered voters came out on March 11th to vote in the Democratic primary, the majority of which supported Barack Obama.
District 1 of MS just elected Childers (D) today in a special election. The results were close: 54 to 46.
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Obama held low approval ratings in the district, but the nearly $2 million that GOP groups poured into northern Mississippi failed to make the race a referendum on the national political landscape.
Republicans dispatched a lineup of heavy hitters in the campaign�s final week, including a pre-election stop Monday by Vice President Dick Cheney. President Bush, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and First Lady Laura Bush recorded automated calls urging voters to support Davis.
A GOP House leadership aide told Politico last week that �if we don�t win in Mississippi, I think you are going to see a lot of people running around here looking for windows to jump out of.�
The $1.27 million that the NRCC spent in the heavily Republican district amounted to nearly 20 percent of the committee's entire cash-on-hand. The committee has now spent more than $3 million to defend three conservative House seats, losing all three of them, and it is ill-equipped financially to compete fully in an ever-widening playing field for November. |
The enthusiasm generated by the Democratic primaries, manifested through increased voter turnout and registration, have been able to defeat the GOP's massive funding invested in conservative districts. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:10 am Post subject: |
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| But Kuros, you may argue, just because the Clinton voters have come out for Clinton does not mean they will come out for Barack in the Fall! |
You may be making a virtue of necessity.
While West Virginians are stirred up enough to come out and vote, we don't know how many people in other states have become burned out by this whole thing. Compare the interest on this board last January with the interest now.
If we are going to continue to stretch this thing into a 6 month process rather than the old 3 month process, we could rearrange it into having two states a week hold their primary/caucus. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 5:08 am Post subject: Re: Why the extended primary is good for the Democrats |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| As long as Hillary keeps away from attacking Obama, the continued primary participation can only be positive for the Democrats in the remaining states. |
I'd say as long as Hillary and her surrogates don't attack Obama, she has every right to stay in the race. Will that actually happen? I'm pretty skeptical about it. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 6:49 am Post subject: Re: Why the extended primary is good for the Democrats |
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| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| As long as Hillary keeps away from attacking Obama, the continued primary participation can only be positive for the Democrats in the remaining states. |
I'd say as long as Hillary and her surrogates don't attack Obama, she has every right to stay in the race. |
Considering she has just under half of the vote, she has every right to campaign her heart out up to the convention. But, I'm going to guess that many Obambites are not going be that grateful even after she lays off attacking Obama. Just a hunch.
Meanwhile, Broder adds his opinion.
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| The threshold for Obama now is no higher than what Reagan faced, but the mental exercise of placing Obama in the Oval Office requires more imagination than did moving Reagan from the silver screen to Pennsylvania Avenue. Obama's name, his face, his whole biography are precedent-setting. People need time to adjust. That's the reason it has been a mistake for him to all but avoid campaigning before skeptical voters in West Virginia and Kentucky. He has to earn the trust of voters such as those -- and he can't postpone that effort until the fall. |
And the converse is true as well, I would wager. Obama's vigorous campaigning in Pennsylvania and Ohio will help him in those states in the Fall. Well, Obama will have the political breeze at his back. Fair sailing, Obama. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 9:49 pm Post subject: Re: Why the extended primary is good for the Democrats |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| As long as Hillary keeps away from attacking Obama, the continued primary participation can only be positive for the Democrats in the remaining states. |
I'd say as long as Hillary and her surrogates don't attack Obama, she has every right to stay in the race. |
Considering she has just under half of the vote, she has every right to campaign her heart out up to the convention. But, I'm going to guess that many Obambites are not going be that grateful even after she lays off attacking Obama. Just a hunch. |
Again, you are missing my point. I'm merely agreeing with you. Please point to some place where I have said she should drop out?
*cricket*
Yep, that's what I thought.
I have always argued that the process should go on until the end of the primaries. Once the primaries are over, there is nothing to campaign for. The only thing left are superdelegates (and not very many that are undeclared). The notion that all of these superdelegates are going to flip is absurd. Personally I was hoping he would have 2025 by May 20th, but it looks like that won't happen. What he will have is a majority of the pledged delegates.
Second, if she enthusiastically campaigns for the nominee, I have no problem with her. Even Bob Shrum said on MTP said that he thinks most of the animosity will blow over once the nomination has been decided.
Third, she has just under half of the popular vote. Yes that is true. It's too bad that's not what decides the nomination. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 10:09 pm Post subject: Re: Why the extended primary is good for the Democrats |
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| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| As long as Hillary keeps away from attacking Obama, the continued primary participation can only be positive for the Democrats in the remaining states. |
I'd say as long as Hillary and her surrogates don't attack Obama, she has every right to stay in the race. |
Considering she has just under half of the vote, she has every right to campaign her heart out up to the convention. But, I'm going to guess that many Obambites are not going be that grateful even after she lays off attacking Obama. Just a hunch. |
Again, you are missing my point. I'm merely agreeing with you. Please point to some place where I have said she should drop out?
*cricket*
Yep, that's what I thought.
I have always argued that the process should go on until the end of the primaries. Once the primaries are over, there is nothing to campaign for. The only thing left are superdelegates (and not very many that are undeclared). The notion that all of these superdelegates are going to flip is absurd. Personally I was hoping he would have 2025 by May 20th, but it looks like that won't happen. What he will have is a majority of the pledged delegates.
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Yeah, I agree with that. The committee is going to decide what to do with the FL-MI delegates on May 31st. But with superdelegates trending heavily Obama, I doubt it would even matter. |
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