Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Kimchi Cha Cha]

What exactly is going on in North Korea? And, how do you think South Korea, the US, the remaining three members of the six party talks and the world as a whole should tackle the North Korea conundrum?

Likely no one outside of North Korea, and a very small number of elites within North Korea itself, knows the answer to the first question.

Is it on the verge of collapse? Are the trinkling amounts of communication from the outside world starting to have an effect on the local populace? Is it on the verge or in the middle of a major famine? Is the regime in jeopardy from a populist uprising? Is 'Lil' Kim' just jousting for more money? Is Kim Jong-il making one last suicidal roll of the dice? Or, is it merely business as usual?

North Korea has been unpredictable even by its unpredictable standards. It kicks out SK officials from one of its main cash cows, Kaesong. One week, it accepts aid from the US and then invites international media outlets to view its demolition of its nuclear plant's cooling tower only to shoot a middle-aged South Korean woman to the back a couple of weeks later.

Obviously, KJI ain't enjoying 2MB's tougher, no nonsense stance after sucking on Kim Dae Jung's and Roh Mu-hyun's teat for the past decade. He's already knocked back SK aid which would have unequivocally been taken from the last two Presidents. Saber rattling and name calling, the likes of which has rarely been seen in the past decade, has been on the rise ever since 2MB won office. Could this mean that the Geumgangsan victim was an unfortunate pawn in a new inter-Korean power struggle?

Where do we go from here dealing with the regime up north? Lil Kim's done a good job of playing the US off against SK in the past few months. Whilst, he's been nothing but a good boy to the US and won considerable leverage, aid and allowances by doing so, he's been a constant dagger in 2MB's side ever since the SK President entered office with some even arguing he's been playing his hand in the mad cow madness here in the south.

So, Geumgangsan has happened. It seems the south is going out of its way to divert attention by bringing out that old chestnut, Dokdo, to sway the masses. In the meantime, just what should they, the US, members of the six party talks, and the wider world do in regards to the DPRK? Freeze and isolate it? Continue with the carrot and stick approach? Revert to the Sunshine Policy, in the case of South Korea?

IMO, 2MB and South Korea needs to make up its mind whether it really wants North Korea back in the fold when it inevitably crashes. It will crash, most likely when or just after KJI dies, it just cannot continue to survive in its current state (although it's defied all predictions and precedents thus far).

South Korea needs to decide whether it really wants to absorb, with substantial economic and logistical help from the outside, the mess that is North Korea when it collapses. Unfortunately, South Korea with falter significantly and likely buckle under the weight of North Korea without (and most probably even with) substantial financial help from outside, the likes of which have never been seen. But, I believe now is the time to make the tough decision - whether reunification is truly the goal or empty rhetoric - and move forward with whichever decision is made. It appears at the moment that they genuinely do not wish reunification but dare not make their true feelings too obvious to both the local populous and outside world.

I believe the majority of South Koreans - rightly and wrongly - are not willing to sacrifice all their hard work and hardships of the past 50 years to absorb the North when it collapses. For this reason and numerous others, I predict North Korea will be a northeastern autonomous region of China within the next 20 years.

Your thoughts?