Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Ya-ta Boy]

Need to win: 270 of the 538 total (435 Representatives, 100 Senators +3 for DC)

Real Clear Politics calls the race this way according to their average of poll standings:

Obama has 228 electoral votes sewed up (a lead of more than 10%) (needs 42 more)
(45 of his votes are coming from states that are leaning�a spread of 5.0 to 10%)

McCain has 185 electoral votes sewed up (a lead of more than 10%).(needs 85 more)
(37 of his votes are coming from states that are leaning�a spread of 5.0 to 10%)

That�s 413 electoral votes out of play (if you consider the states that are leaning to be out of play)
.
That leaves 125 up for grabs.

The 10 Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
(a spread of under 5%)

Colorado (9) 45.2 44.8 Obama +0.4
Nevada (5) 44.3 45.3 McCain +1.0
Michigan (17) 46.0 41.7 Obama +4.3
Ohio (20) 43.3 44.5 McCain +1.2
Florida (27) 43.2 46.3 McCain +3.1
Virginia (13) 46.0 46.0 0
New Mexico (5) 47.3 43.0 Obama +4.3
New Hampshire (4) 44.0 43.7 Obama +0.3
Minnesota (10) 47.5 43.0 Obama +4.5
North Carolina (15) 42.8 47.0 McCain +4.2

These Battleground States have a total of 125 electoral votes.

There are 7 more states rated at Leaning (One candidate has a lead of more than 5% but less than 10%.

Pennsylvania (21) 47.4 42.4 Obama +5.0
Iowa (7) 49.3 44.0 Obama +5.3
Indiana (11) 42.0 48.7 McCain +6.7
Missouri (11) 42.7 49.7 McCain +7.0
Wisconsin (10) 48.0 40.8 Obama +7.2
Oregon (7) 48.7 41.7 Obama +7.0
Georgia (15) 43.7 50.0 McCain +6.3

Obama has the lead in states with 45 electoral votes
McCain has the lead in states with 37 electoral votes.

If you add in the Battleground States using the leads as they now exist, it would be Obama 273 and McCain 265.

[Ya-ta Boy]

I don't think it will be that close. When it comes down to it, a lot of people are going to want to be able to say they voted for the historic change but they won't see McCain/Palin as historic enough. Second banana just isn't good enough.

[Milwaukiedave]

Interesting analysis, especially when you add in the following for the battleground states:

Colorado (9) 2000 (R), 2004 (R)
Nevada (5) 2000 (R), 2004 (R)
Michigan (17) 2000 (D), 2004 (D)
Ohio (20) 2000 (D), 2004 (D)
Florida (27) 2000 (R), 2004 (R)
Virginia (13) 2000 (R), 2004 (R)
New Mexico (5) 2000 (D), 2004 (R)
New Hampshire (4) 2000 (R), 2004 (D)
Minnesota (10) 2000 (D), 2004 (D)
North Carolina (15) 2000 (R), 2004 (R)

With the exception NH and NM, each of the other 8 states have consistently gone one way or the other.

The Republicans are playing defense in a good number of those states. Bush won 5 electoral votes in 2000 and 25 in 2004, neither one is a landslide. In either case one or two states flipped would have changed the election.

[Kuros]

Obama should be winning either Ohio or Florida. Absent that, its too early to get complacent.

NH, NM, and NC are beyond the statistical error at this point, but you have to fight hard for Ohio and Florida.

[contrarian]

Palin as the VP pick and cancelling part of the Republican convention because of the hurricane is going to be a big boost for the Republicans. Among other things Palin revitalized the religious right for the Republicans. There is a core of 25% of the US that simply will not vote for a black.

[Czarjorge]

Conty, have you been following the news on Palin? I don't think McCain's people did enough research.

And why would the lack of coverage of the Rep convention be a boost? Obama got a serious numbers for his speech, that's proof a number of people were interested in hearing what he had to say, and given it was a good speech he probably won some converts. McCain would need to do the same, but he might not have a chance. How is that a good thing? And if it is a good thing, what does that say about Reps?

[Ya-ta Boy]

I notice two things about the list of battleground/leaning states.

Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia are now emerging as two-party states where the outcome is not automatic. Maybe the Civil War is finally over?

The Midwestern States are (mainly) where the final deciding votes will be cast: Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri.

[Czarjorge]

I would be shocked if Iowa doesn't go Obama, and we're pretty damn white.

[contrarian]

ESL teachers with liberal arts educations are notoriously biased on left - right issues. Can't see the trees for the forest.

North Carolina (I lived there for two years a long time back) is old confederacy and not as bi-racial as many might hope.

[ernie]

didn't ohio vote republican in 2000 and 2004?

[bucheon bum]

[huffdaddy]

[Ya-ta Boy]

Here's a link to a map that Kuros posted on another thread. It is FAR more favorable to Obama than what Real Clear Politics has posted with Obama at 293 and McCain at 227.

With the VeePs lined up in both parties and the conventions over, the numbers in several of the battleground states and leaning states should begin to clarify.




http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[W.T.Carl]

Obama overpolls by about 6%. Haven't you heard of the Bradley effect? Do the math.

[Ya-ta Boy]

Keep grasping at that straw. Maybe it will keep your head above water until November 4.