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Fishead soup
Joined: 24 Jun 2007
Location: Korea
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 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Whatever happened to that big exodus predicted? |
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What happened to big exodus everyone was expecting. Kinda like Moses leading the Hebrews out of Isreal. I think we all just swollowed out pride and jumped through the hoops for the new regs. I guess the only people who left were the people with real criminal records.
It was a big cash grab for the Canadian embassy. Hire a flunky Kyopo and make a stamp. 10 000 won at the local stationary shop . |
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Faunaki
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:37 pm Post subject: |
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| The same thing happened with TALK program. Everyone was like it's so stupid, no one will do it. blah blah. But once again everything turned out just peachy. |
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Fishead soup
Joined: 24 Jun 2007
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Faunaki wrote: |
| The same thing happened with TALK program. Everyone was like it's so stupid, no one will do it. blah blah. But once again everything turned out just peachy. |
I guess these days people are too cool for welfare. |
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jlb
Joined: 18 Sep 2003
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:04 am Post subject: |
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| The hoops weren't really so hard to jump through? |
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Frankly Mr Shankly
Joined: 13 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:13 am Post subject: |
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| Notice how many unfilled jobs there are now? Recruiters charging 2 million where they used to charge one? Wages going nuts? Demand is outstripping supply. |
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Yaya
Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:38 am Post subject: |
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| Yep, yet another case of doomsday predictions that the Korea haters love to make, whether plausible or not. |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:55 am Post subject: |
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| Faunaki wrote: |
| The same thing happened with TALK program. Everyone was like it's so stupid, no one will do it. blah blah. But once again everything turned out just peachy. |
Actually most people were predicting that of the people who were signing on a large percentage would not finish the contract. And THAT is too early to tell yet. |
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Yu_Bum_suk
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:23 am Post subject: |
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| TheUrbanMyth wrote: |
| Faunaki wrote: |
| The same thing happened with TALK program. Everyone was like it's so stupid, no one will do it. blah blah. But once again everything turned out just peachy. |
Actually most people were predicting that of the people who were signing on a large percentage would not finish the contract. And THAT is too early to tell yet. |
Well, there are TaLK positions for hundreds of people and I've only come across one on this site and don't know anyone who's met one in real life, so perhaps it has been a bit underwealming.
And I know of at least a couple of people who have had a hell of a time finding teachers lately. |
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Troll_Bait
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: [T]eaching experience doesn't matter much. -Lee Young-chan (pictured)
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:33 am Post subject: Re: Whatever happened to that big exodus predicted? |
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| Fishead soup wrote: |
| What happened to big exodus everyone was expecting. |
I'm not sure who this "everyone" who was expecting a big exodus is. Not me. However, I do predict that they might have trouble replenishing their numbers. Only a minority of people re-sign their contracts their stay here, and so I think there will be a slow bleeding away of teachers. I met a woman in Canada who has been offered jobs here, and after several months, she still isn't coming. Every time, the bureaucratic paperwork wasn't finished in time, and so the job opportunity fell through. |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:39 am Post subject: |
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Many of us were "exempted" from the hoops when we renewed last spring (got in before the March 15 deadline).
Many (most?) of the people I know (myself included) are NOT staying beyond the end of their current contracts.
I personally think the brown stuff will hit the fan next spring when the current crop of teachers leaves rather than jump through the hoops.
This may well be mitigated by the current state of the economy in the states (where many students are stuck between large student loans and no jobs) so the application pool may actually increase with applications from there.
. |
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aka Dave
Joined: 02 May 2008
Location: Down by the river
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:46 am Post subject: |
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When I and my co-worker quit my hagwon for a new job last Feb., we were offered personal use of a car and more money. We both left for Uni.jobs. I don't know if they managed to replace us. It was a new school.
I think it will have an effect, inevitably, but whether it's a dramatic effect I have no idea. |
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jdog2050
Joined: 17 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:06 am Post subject: |
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| Yaya wrote: |
| Yep, yet another case of doomsday predictions that the Korea haters love to make, whether plausible or not. |
No...you're wrong, sorry.
First, when I went to the embassy the guy blatantly told me that they were having a hell of a time filling spots.
More Hagwons have crashed in the past 6 months than my 2.5 years here.
It happened, it just didn't happen to *you*. |
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Skippy
Joined: 18 Jan 2003
Location: Daejeon
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:19 am Post subject: |
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Simply put why you have not seen the exodus is TIME.
It has only really been since March15, 2008 that things got weird. You need to wait for more people to finish their jobs/contracts. As those people finish - some will be lost do to past deeds (crime, health). Others will simply put deem it not worthy to renew. And others will get messed around with the red tape, throw hands up in air and walk away from korea. Simply put will not see the full effects till March 15th, 2009 and beyond.
Same with the Talk program. Yep it started, it got the required amount of people and you have to see what happens. Some people are saying give it a month or two and you will start seeing people start running. Remember I think the program school year has not started yet. |
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Ruraljuror
Joined: 08 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:23 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Yep, yet another case of doomsday predictions that the Korea haters love to make, whether plausible or not. |
Well I certainly don't hate Korea...I love it here. But there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that it is getting harder to fill spots.
And the good news is, the wages have very obviously gone up. It seems like most places pay at least 2.5 if you have experience, and noobs can expect 2.2 - 2.3. There are also many high end jobs advertising for 2.7 and up...and even a few for 3.0 and up. This was *definitely* not the case 12 months ago.
The wages HAVE gone up, there is no doubt about it. There are of course other factors, such as inflation here and hagwons dealing with increased hiring competition from public schools, but I think it's clear that the new visa policy is the engine driving the salary increases. And the trend is not leveling off, and next Spring and Summer is going to be a scary time for hagwon owners as the rush of people who re signed in early March (I know at least half a dozen myself) really weigh whether or not they want to spend another year here. I would anticipate salaries to rise for the next 12-24 months. At that point the shortages are not temporary, but endemic, and the market will correct itself either in mass hagwon closings, lowering demand, or hagwon owners will start bringing in Filipinos, raising supply.
I suspect that in time we will use the phrases "Pre-CPN" and "Post-CPN" the way Koreans use "Pre IMF" and "Post IMF".
Last edited by Ruraljuror on Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:27 am; edited 1 time in total |
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fruitcake
Joined: 18 Apr 2004
Location: shinchon
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:25 am Post subject: |
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| ttompatz wrote: |
Many of us were "exempted" from the hoops when we renewed last spring (got in before the March 15 deadline).
Many (most?) of the people I know (myself included) are NOT staying beyond the end of their current contracts. |
184 days and counting! |
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