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[Ya-ta Boy]

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama jumped to his biggest lead since late July in public opinion polls, after his Aug. 28 speech...

Obama leads McCain 49-41 percent in the most recent Gallup Poll daily tracking survey, which measured voter sentiment during a three-day period ending Aug. 28. The presidential contenders had been tied at 45 percent in the last Gallup tracking results before the Democrats started their Colorado convention. A separate tracking poll by Rasmussen Reports put Obama's advantage at 3 percentage points.

The 8 percentage-point lead in the Gallup survey almost matches Obama's biggest margin of the campaign, a 9-point bulge in tracking polls conducted July 24-26, Gallup said.

Obama's Denver speech on Aug. 28 attracted 38.4 million television viewers, 57 percent more than the audience in 2004, when Massachusetts Senator John Kerry accepted the party's presidential nomination, according to Nielsen Co.

The party conventions historically give candidates a boost because of the media coverage they receive as more voters begin paying attention to the campaign. The post-convention bump in poll numbers for Obama is greater than the 3 percentage point average gain that Kerry got after the 2004 Democratic convention and is within the historical average.

In a separate USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Aug. 29, about 40 percent of respondents said they consider Palin, a 44-year-old first-term governor, qualified to be president -- the lowest level since President George H.W. Bush picked Indiana Senator Dan Quayle as his running mate in 1988. One-third of the people surveyed don't think Palin is qualified, and the rest had no opinion.

By comparison, 57 percent of Americans considered Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden qualified to take the top office if necessary, with 18 percent doubting his qualifications.

Palin may not attract large numbers of disillusioned supporters of Hillary Clinton. Only 9 percent of Democratic women said Palin makes them more likely to support the Republican ticket; 15 percent were less likely to back McCain. Among all women, 20 percent said Palin's selection made them more likely to vote for McCain and 11 percent were less likely.

Half of those polled had never heard of Palin before her selection, the Gallup/USA Today poll found.

Female Voters

In a Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, 35 percent of those surveyed said Palin's selection made them more likely to vote for McCain, while 33 percent said they were less likely to back the Arizona senator.

Most voters questioned in the Rasmussen poll had a good impression of Palin, who beat out more experienced contenders to join McCain's ticket.

Obama, a senator from Illinois, had a 47-44 percent advantage over McCain in Rasmussen tracking results through Aug. 30, the same margin he had a week ago, before the Democratic convention began. Including undecided voters who say they're leaning toward one candidate or another, Obama leads 49-46 percent, Rasmussen said.

[Ya-ta Boy]

To me, the most significant number was 57%. The number indicates how much more excited and interested voters are this year compared to 2004.

[W.T.Carl]

Can you say post-convention boost? And Obama overpolls by about 8%.

[bacasper]

If that is all the lead he's got right after the convention, and the Republicans have yet to hold theirs, I'd say Obama is in trouble.

I haven't weighed in on this two-horse race, as distasteful as it is to have to choose between the evil of two lessers, as I see little substantive difference between them.

There is however ONE area which must make me lead towards Obama: that would be for likely Supreme Court nominations. McCain has already said he'd appoint more people like Roberts and Alito (or was it Scalia?). Obama could not do worse than that.

[W.T.Carl]

Actually, it was Roberts. And he did get a bounce albeit a small one from the Palin VP pick. Obama lost points after he picked Biden.