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Intrade (Political Stock Market) Predicts Palin Drops
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 2:44 pm    Post subject: Intrade (Political Stock Market) Predicts Palin Drops Reply with quote

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/prediction-market-starts_n_123136.html

Quote:
***UPDATE***
As of 5:29pm Tuesday, traders on the Intrade prediction market are selling the chance that Palin will drop off John McCain's ticket at 11.6. Check here for more updates as the market moves.

***UPDATE***
As of 1:45pm Tuesday, traders on the Intrade prediction market are selling the chance that Palin will drop off John McCain's ticket at 13.9. Check here for more updates as the market moves.

---
The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether "Sarah Palin [is] to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election." At 8:55 am, Tuesday morning, the market is selling the prediction at 18 a share and rising. That means 18 percent of traders think there is a chance that Palin will be removed from the ticket.

Intrade predicted Joe Biden would be Barack Obama's running mate in August and its traders were also correct about every Senate race in 2006. It fell flat in predicting a Democratic majority.

Keep checking back through out the day for updates on the trading numbers.


I think they're off their rocker, here. Palin will not jump ship unless scandals push her off. Even then the political fallout vis a vis the question of McCain's judgement would likely keep her on.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those numbers will go up when they read that Todd Palin twice registered with the Alaska Independent Party. (See link on the Sarah Palin thread, page 24).

I posted yesterday that the pressure will build this week to dump her. I wouldn't be surprised if she out by the weekend.
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's even more odd is that though Palin remained a registered Republican she attended the AIP convention in 1994 with her husband. Perhaps not a glaring admittance to sympathy, as this happens all the time with pols, but odd nonetheless.

Hell, I'd love it if she came out hard for state's rights. That part of the Rep party platform is one I can get behind.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Czarjorge wrote:

Hell, I'd love it if she came out hard for state's rights. That part of the Rep party platform is one I can get behind.


Oh, no. Now Ya-Ta is gonna give you a tongue-lashing for your Southern secessionist sympathies. Because being against Federal Drug laws and de facto Federal control of drinking age makes you a Deep South sympathizer!
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can be sure it will rise above 14%. If you have a couple hundred bucks laying around the system is easy to use.
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
Czarjorge wrote:

Hell, I'd love it if she came out hard for state's rights. That part of the Rep party platform is one I can get behind.


Oh, no. Now Ya-Ta is gonna give you a tongue-lashing for your Southern secessionist sympathies. Because being against Federal Drug laws and de facto Federal control of drinking age makes you a Deep South sympathizer!


I really hope a journo of merit asks her about marijuana laws in her state and how she would apply that rubric to the nation at large.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Oh, no. Now Ya-Ta is gonna give you a tongue-lashing


And deservedly so. If you can't argue the merits of a policy without dragging in John C. Calhoun's ideas, you deserve to be lashed with something a lot stouter than a tongue.
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did I mention Calhoun?
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Czarjorge wrote:
Did I mention Calhoun?


Guilt by association, son. That's Lincoln's way!
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What if I support the right of municipalities to make laws that supercede those of the state and federal government as long as they don't prevent fundamental human rights? Am I still a closet racist?

Wait... what?
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Did I mention Calhoun?


Yes. States Rights.

Quote:
What if I support the right of municipalities to make laws that supercede those of the state and federal government...


If you really meant to say 'supercede' then you are tinkering with States Rights. I never said anything about States Rights equaling racism. That's Kuros' personal interpretation (as far as I know). I equate it with chaos, doom and some other nasty things.
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I respect most of your input Ya-ta, but I call shenanigans on your view of state's rights.

It would be state's rights for California to allow for medical marijuana. It's odd that the Feds don't mess with Alaska in that regard.

It would be state's rights for some states to choose not to participate in the welfare to work system. Would that be so bad?

It's really too bad that your view of the US causes you to dismiss the right of individual states to make laws that supercede federal laws. As I said no state or municipality should be able to override the inalienable rights of any individual, but states should be allowed to make laws that allow their citizenry to do as the majority sees fit.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Would this be a fair approximation of your position?

�Sir, as to the doctrine that the federal government is the exclusive judge of the extent as well as the limitations of its powers, it seems to me to be utterly subversive of the sovereignty and independence of the states. It makes but little difference, in my estimation, whether Congress or Supreme Court are invested with this power. If the federal government, in all, or any, of its departments, is to prescribe the limits of its own authority. and the states are bound to submit to the decision, and are not to be allowed to examine and decide for themselves, when the barriers of the constitution shall be overleaped, this is practically government without limitation of powers." The states are at once reduced to mere petty corporations and the people are entirely at your mercy.�
Senator Robert Haynes, South Carolina Jan. 21, 1830

The next day Senator Daniel Webster, Massachusetts replied: "Let it be remembered, that the Constitution of the United States is not unalterable. It is to continue in its present form no longer than the people who established it shall choose to continue it. If they shall become convinced that they have made an injudicious or inexpedient partition and distribution of power between the State governments and the general government, they can alter that distribution at will..

If any thing be found in the national Constitution, either by original provision or subsequent interpretation, which ought not to be in it, the people know how to get rid of it. If any construction, unacceptable to them, be established, so as to become practically a part of the Constitution, they will amend it, at their own sovereign pleasure. But while the people choose to maintain it as it is, while they are satisfied with it, and refuse to change it, who has given, or who can give, to the State legislatures a right to alter it, either by interference, construction, or otherwise? Gentlemen do not seem to recollect that the people have any power to do any thing for themselves. They imagine there is no safety for them, any longer than they are under the close guardianship of the State legislatures. Sir, the people have not trusted their safety, in regard to the general Constitution, to these hands. They have required other security, and taken other bonds. They have chosen to trust themselves, first, to the plain words of the instrument, and to such construction as the government themselves, in doubtful cases, should put on their own powers, under their oaths of office, and subject to their responsibility, to them just as the people of a State trust their own State governments with a similar power. Secondly, they have reposed their trust in the efficacy of frequent elections, and in their own power to remove their own servants and agents whenever they see cause. Thirdly, they have reposed trust in the judicial power, which, in order that it might be trustworthy, they have made as respectable, as disinterested, and as independent as was practicable. Fourthly, they have seen fit to rely, in case of necessity, or high expediency, on their known and admitted power to alter or amend the Constitution, peaceably and quietly, whenever experience shall point out defects or imperfections. And, finally, the people of the United States have at no time, in no way, directly or indirectly, authorized any State legislature to construe or interpret their high instrument of government; much less, to interfere by their own power, to arrest its course and operation."
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W.T.Carl



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It ain't gonna happen.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
states should be allowed to make laws that allow their citizenry to do as the majority sees fit.


I entirely agree--on issues that are under state control, marriage for example. I would also argue that legal drinking age should be under local control and that the system of blackmailing states to comply with a national standard is over-reaching by the federal government.

But there are other issues, issues properly under federal control, that cannot be allowed to be nullified by the state governments--that would be tyranny of the minority. Minority? Yes, because we are one people when we speak through Congress. The Senators and Representatives of all 300 million have spoken for the majority of all the citizens. State governments represent only the citizens in their locality...a minority of all citizens.

When any issue comes before Congress the first question should always be: Is this a State or a National issue and who properly has jurisdiction? I'm all for vigorous state governments and the division of power between the States and the National Government.

The crux of the States Rights view is that we are a collection of States and not One People. That disagreement was settled at Gettysburg and Vicksburg, Shiloh and Antietam. You have every right to say the national government has become overweening and enfringes on states' constitutional authority to deal with local matters, but to claim that state governments have the right to supercede federal law is to spit on the graves of our ancestors. As Webster pointed out, there are mechanisms in the Constitution to deal with mistakes.
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