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arby
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
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 Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:50 am Post subject: sending money home, wait it out? |
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I have about 6 months left and just saw the won plummet about 4 cents in 2 days. Should I move this money before it drops further or just wait it out. Watching this exchange rate is breaking my heart!!!!!!!!
Anyone with any expertise in this kind of thing, we would all appreciate your advice. |
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bogey666
Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Location: Korea, the ass free zone
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:05 am Post subject: Re: sending money home, wait it out? |
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| arby wrote: |
I have about 6 months left and just saw the won plummet about 4 cents in 2 days. Should I move this money before it drops further or just wait it out. Watching this exchange rate is breaking my heart!!!!!!!!
Anyone with any expertise in this kind of thing, we would all appreciate your advice. |
if anyone truly had "expertise" at this kind of thing, they wouldn't be teaching English in Korea.. and the "experts" at investment banks who don't actually TRADE the currencies also don't have a fucking clue, they just know how to talk a good game.
I have experience in currencies, and told people 2 months ago, the US dollar would rally (you can check on this board  but I don't know much about the won and it's a somewhat exotic currency anyways.
my sense is this is overplayed, which isn't to say it won't get worse, before it gets better.. this is often the case.
but unless I see different things than I am seeing now, I am not sending any money into the US unless absolutely necessary. I'll ride it out and will plow money into Korean interest bearing accounts or cD's.
of course, I think I'll be renewing next year, so I can afford to take a longer view.
Last edited by bogey666 on Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:24 am; edited 1 time in total |
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sojourner1
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:10 am Post subject: |
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| I was going to transmit right now too, but holding off. I'm going to take the risk of waiting since I plan on being here at least until June which is 9 months from now. I'm just wondering if this Won devaluation has to do with decreasing demand for Korean products in the USA. If so, hold on for a long rough ride where teacher earnings come closer to being worth only the paper it's printed on. I sure hope not as that's most disappointing. |
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gabrielle
Joined: 28 Jun 2008
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:33 am Post subject: |
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| What if you're leaving in a few months? Should keep waiting and hope it goes up in the next couple weeks or send it all tomorrow? I'm watching the exchange rates and hoping that the won doesn't plummet. |
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jbpatlanta
Joined: 02 Jun 2007
Location: Daejeon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:47 am Post subject: |
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I'll ride it out and will plow money into Korean interest bearing accounts or cD's.
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What kind of accounts do you deposit into. The CDs that are offered at the banks, or do you invest through brokers.
Just wondering, I've got some money that I don't want to send out of the country yet. I can afford to sit on it for about 3 years. Trying to figure out the best place to let my money work for me. |
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OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:56 am Post subject: |
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Agree with Bogey, the experts aren't here, and they don't know much better than us most of the time.
Anyway, from a risk standpoint: The longterm pressure on the USD is down, at least until they can erase their huge current account deficit (2Billion a day, mainly oil.) Yet, that's irrelevant for the next few months.
You can a) either take a risk and send it all back at once.
b) send it back every month in even lots.
b) Will give you less volatility than a), but again unless you have some surefire way to predict currency movements (which are pretty difficult to do-short term) the expected difference between the two is zero. |
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bogey666
Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Location: Korea, the ass free zone
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:32 am Post subject: |
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| OneWayTraffic wrote: |
Agree with Bogey, the experts aren't here, and they don't know much better than us most of the time.
Anyway, from a risk standpoint: The longterm pressure on the USD is down, at least until they can erase their huge current account deficit (2Billion a day, mainly oil.) Yet, that's irrelevant for the next few months.
You can a) either take a risk and send it all back at once.
b) send it back every month in even lots.
b) Will give you less volatility than a), but again unless you have some surefire way to predict currency movements (which are pretty difficult to do-short term) the expected difference between the two is zero. |
the problem is that there was little correlation to the USD vs major global currencies and the won last year. The USD was getting killed vs the euro and other currencies, but was even or strengthening vs the won.
now as the USD has spectacularly rebounded against the majors (negating its spectacular fall in early 0 things may get interesting.
my sense is that the won is being driven by other factors, mainly energy and inflation costs (and as oil has tumbled and commodities tumbled, this should easy inflationary pressures on Korea)
the wild card is whether Koreans can continue to export things to the US and have their products bought there, as US domestic demand slackens under continuing economic pressures.
jbpatlanta... a broker??? what broker?
I was a fucking broker and I have yet to find one better than me
if a broker was really good, he'd be a trader. When I put away nestegg money I will save for a trading fund. (asian hours are perfect to trade London session, which is the only one that matters)
a broker will "invest" your money meaning what.. he'll buy Huyndai stock for you, or what? what services do local/Korean brokers provide exactly?
unless you're willing to play with the money, put in a bank CD.
Last edited by bogey666 on Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:35 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Join Me
Joined: 14 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:34 am Post subject: |
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I would say wait it out a bit. I think a lot of the movement right now is due to fear generated by the media. Most of the financial analysts are saying that the Korean economy is not in as nearly bad of shape as the media and foreign investors (who are taking cash out of Korea) seem to think. I think it will be quite a wait for the won to get below 1000 but I bet in the next 3-6 months as the fears prove unfounded it will venture back that way.
I also wouldn't rule out the Korean government taking another swing at correcting the direction of the won. They did this a month ago and the won shot to 1000. I ran to the bank and sent a nice chunk of change home. If I was leaving in 6 months I would have sent it all but I plan on sticking around a couple more years so I can wait this out. Keep an eye on the won daily and read the papers. When the government announces they are going to take action get ready to head to the bank. |
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bogey666
Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Location: Korea, the ass free zone
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:40 am Post subject: |
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| Join Me wrote: |
| I also wouldn't rule out the Korean government taking another swing at correcting the direction of the won. They did this a month ago and the won shot to 1000. I ran to the bank and sent a nice chunk of change home. If I was leaving in 6 months I would have sent it all but I plan on sticking around a couple more years so I can wait this out. Keep an eye on the won daily and read the papers. When the government announces they are going to take action get ready to head to the bank. |
oh I think you're right.. but they will try to line up their ducks a little better than last time, which worked wonders in a short period of time as the players were caught by surprise by how aggressive it was, but has failed miserably within a month's time.
it also cost them roughly 10% of their foreign reserves. |
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xCustomx
Joined: 06 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:57 am Post subject: |
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| Join Me wrote: |
I also wouldn't rule out the Korean government taking another swing at correcting the direction of the won. They did this a month ago and the won shot to 1000. When the government announces they are going to take action get ready to head to the bank. |
The government's intervention has created a lot of the problem IMO. Since the previous selloffs haven't worked, I don't think investors really believe that the government can intervene and have much of an impact. To get the won back to 1,000 the government would probably have to sell about $20-25 billion, which I don't see happening |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:59 am Post subject: |
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| For people who are leaving in a few months, it probably makes sense to send out money on a monthly basis so as to 'average out' the swings. |
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bogey666
Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Location: Korea, the ass free zone
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:04 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| For people who are leaving in a few months, it probably makes sense to send out money on a monthly basis so as to 'average out' the swings. |
actually that really makes sense for almost anyone who's completely unwilling to speculate on their money.
just do it on some predetermined time basis.. like monthly, bi monthly, quarterly, or whatever.
if you really believe the rate has overshot at your regular time, you can wait a little longer and speculate at least a little this way.
entirely "up to you". |
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OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:12 am Post subject: |
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And the last thing one can do is send it all home just before you go, and then reinvest in foreign currencies or stocks. It's effectively the same as keeping it here.
Oh and btw I'm a New Zealander. If you think the won is volatile, you should try ours. From 70c in 1996 to 40c in 2000 60c in 2006, back up to 80c last year then down to 67c and then back up to 77c before heading down to 69c just now.
Small market, open economy and a Reserve bank reluctant to intervene=Rollercoaster currency.
Probably the most among developed countries. |
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bogey666
Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Location: Korea, the ass free zone
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:23 am Post subject: |
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| OneWayTraffic wrote: |
And the last thing one can do is send it all home just before you go, and then reinvest in foreign currencies or stocks. It's effectively the same as keeping it here.
Oh and btw I'm a New Zealander. If you think the won is volatile, you should try ours. From 70c in 1996 to 40c in 2000 60c in 2006, back up to 80c last year then down to 67c and then back up to 77c before heading down to 69c just now.
Small market, open economy and a Reserve bank reluctant to intervene=Rollercoaster currency.
Probably the most among developed countries. |
WRONG. Depends on what you mean by "foreign".
unless you reinvest at home in something like KF (Korea fund) or the won (impractical and difficult)
as to the Kiwi (the currency), your currency was victim to the carry trade and your central bank's high interest rates the last several years.
Any fucking meathead, and every rocket scientist at ANY hedge fund knew that borrowing money in Japanese yen at near zero percent and putting it in New Zealand to get 8% plus in a developed country/economy was a decent bet to make.
so much money piled into this trade, that when stock markets tanked and these trades unwound for liquidity reasons, the fall was even more drastic at times than the rise.
(plus all of a sudden econ data for NZ weakened on top of it all) |
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nuthatch
Joined: 21 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:30 am Post subject: |
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| sense/intuition says to send it as soon as you can, each time you get paid...it will only get worse |
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