Korean Job Discussion Forums

[wylies99]

China set to take over North Korea

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1189482

The best way forward would be for the two Koreas to unify, but China won�t allow it, says analyst

HONG KONG; China will take control of North Korea directly or indirectly in a post-Kim Jong-il scenario, and while that may ward off a potential power struggle among military leaders in the nuclear weapon-armed state, it bodes ill for China and the region, says writer Gordon G. Chang.

In an interview to DNA from Toronto, Chang, author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World, noted that many of the military generals in North Korea had �very close ties with China� and would probably form a �collective military government� in the event of President Kim Jong-il�s death.

�North Korea will nominally remain an independent state, but China will have a great influence on how it operates; it will very much determine what happens there.�

While such an arrangement would enhance China�s leverage in Asia, Chang believes China would be �buying a lot of problems.� North Korea, he notes, �isn�t exactly a strong state, so when China exercises dominion control, it�s going to have to reconstitute a lot of North Korea � the economy, civil society and infrastructure.�

Which is why, he reckons, South Koreans �aren�t exactly dying to take over the North: it�s going to be troublesome for whoever takes over.�

There are times, says Chang, when nations do things that are not in their best long-term interests. �It may well not be in China�s long-term interest to take over North Korea either formally or informally, but China has always tried to exercise control over its borders, so I can see China doing something silly � like try to absorb North Korea or turn it into a vassal state.�

He says North Korea could end up being China�s Tar-Baby: a sticky situation that will only gets aggravated with further engagement. In his estimation, the best option is for the two Koreas to unify, �but China is certainly not going to want that.� In the long term, it will be a source of instability for the two to remain separate.

Home | World

[mises]

Well, after all the pissing and moaning about the United States/Japan I heard while in the ROK looks like the boogie man isn't Bushy at all but the Chinese. Dokdo is nothing compared to this loss. The Koreans are going to permanently lose half their "country". This has been widely assumed for many, many years and yet the Koreans get excited about mad cow and worthless rocks.

China will develop North Korea. They have experience in bringing openness, slowly, to closed societies. As long as order is preserved and the South isn't flooded with refugees I suspect a DPRK run by the Chinese is a darn good outcome.

[Ya-ta Boy]

The link in the OP doesn't work for me.


I don't doubt that when KJI goes the Chinese will make a play for a more amenable successor. Who wouldn't? Whether they pull it off is another story. I doubt the South Koreans will just be sitting around with their fingers crossed, hoping for the best.

The stroke that KJI had is a stroke of luck. It will allow the everyone some time to maneuver to get into the best position. Most likely the succession will go smoothly. And most likely the reformers will come out on top since both the Chinese and South Koreans want that.

The Chinese would only have an opportunity to move in if the succession goes badly. I'd bet that if the Chinese troops move across the border, the South Koreans will move across the DMZ and the race would be on for a new division somewhere half-way up the country.

I can assure you the Korean officer class is mentally prepared to fight to keep the Chinese off the peninsula.

[mises]

[NAVFC]

[mises]

Never heard of it.

Surely, the ROK wouldn't risk war with the PRC..??

[NAVFC]

[mises]

I'm a super nerd. If it ain't Star Wars, I ain't playing it.

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Gollywog]

Did you notice that South Korea signed a military alliance with China near the end of the Olympics?

My impression is that China has had ties to political leaders and opinion makers all along here. And I suspect that those ties involved financial gratuities, perhaps passed via North Koreans.

I think China has been slowly, quietly, playing a sort of cold war far stealthier than the Russians, trying to accomplish what they failed to achieve militarily during 1950-53.

I agree that it is likely China will bring North Korea into a closer sphere with China before long. And it probably would be an improvement, as pathetic as that sounds, over its current state.

And given South Korea's bellicosity and political immaturity (and the North, too), it is perhaps best that the two Korea's remain forever divided.

Don't be surprised if the official policy shifts from emphasizing English instruction to Chinese instruction before long.

[Kuros]

[Khenan]

If China takes over DPRK, what are the odds that they'll survive the ethnic cleansing program? They'll be shipping in Chinese immigrants by the trainload, and shipping out the natives for work in Tibet or God-knows where.

[Kuros]

[chris_J2]

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=17677

An extract from the above, that sets out some valid geopolitical advantages for China, in ending the status quo in North Korea.

"First, China does not wish to give Japan the excuse to develop its own nuclear arsenal. A nuclear-armed Kim Jong Il gives Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe a compelling reason to arm Japan with nuclear weapons. Japan has enough plutonium to build some 8,000 nuclear warheads and it has the technology to build the missiles to deliver them accurately to Beijing. It may also encourage other Asian powers to seek to acquire nuclear weapons; Taiwan being foremost among these.

Second, China believes it can work a transformational quid pro quo with South Korea�s leadership. The deal? China would topple North Korea in exchange for South Korea�s promise to eject all U.S. military forces from the peninsula. South Korea�s president, Roh Moo-hyun, is well-known for his strongly held anti-U.S. and nationalist beliefs. Reunifying Korea and removing all U.S. forces from Korean soil would cement Roh�s status as a truly historic Korean leader.

Third, reunifying Korea would effectively eliminate Korea as an economic competitor to China for two decades as South Korea would expend about $2 trillion to rebuild the North to bring it up to the South�s standards.

Fourth, a united Korea preoccupied with rebuilding the North would share a long and vulnerable border with China, forcing Korea completely into a Chinese tributary orbit, as it has been for much of its history. This would represent a strategic Chinese diplomatic victory and would represent a blow to Japan and the United States.

Fifth, and perhaps just as important as all the other reasons, a Korea reunited under the auspices of China would greatly strengthen China�s hand in demanding the same of Taiwan, even though the historical case for unification is weak while the moral case is nonexistent.

When considering what we might see in the coming weeks from China, let us not forget history. In late 1950 China quietly positioned more than 300,000 troops along its border with Korea in preparation to intervene into the Korean conflict. In November of that year, some 30 Chinese infantry divisions maneuvered south and attacked, achieving a major strategic surprise on the 425,000 member-strong UN command operating under Gen. Douglas MacArthur.

In 1979 there was another example of a massive Chinese surprise attack. China assaulted Vietnam to teach it a lesson over Vietnam�s actions in Cambodia and its close ties with the old Soviet Union. China fought on for 29 days, losing more men in less than a month than America did in some 12 years of fighting in Vietnam. China may be a modern and powerful nation today, but its leadership is largely of the same genus that existed 27 years ago. In other words, they are capable of bold, decisive, and, if necessary, bloody action.

China�s border with Korea is about 300 miles long. The vast majority of North Korea�s forces are massed on the border with South Korea. If the leaders in Beijing opted to remove the North Korean regime by force they could easily do so. The communist north would be wholly unable to resist the modern Chinese army whose advance into North Korea would probably not even be resisted, at least not effectively.

China can do the preceding with or without America�s approval. We need to plan for the unification of Korea and consider its aftermath, taking prudent steps to reinforce our relationship with the region�s democracies, including Japan and Taiwan.

North Korea�s suspected nuclear test and potential follow-on tests will likely change the region in ways that neither Kim Jong Il nor the U.S. leadership expects. China has the initiative and they will act when they think action is needed."

[caniff]