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KT: Wall Street Crisis to Shakes Korean Economy
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 4:09 am    Post subject: KT: Wall Street Crisis to Shakes Korean Economy Reply with quote

The KOSPI falls for one day, and the Korea Times is forecasting Armageddon.

Quote:
Wall Street Crisis to Shakes Korean Economy

Korea Times Photo
by Kim Ju-sung

American Financial Meltdown Said to Be Far From Over


By Kim Jae-kyoung
Staff Reporter

The Wall Street crisis triggered by the demise of U.S. investment giant Lehman Brothers is set to have a major impact on the Korean economy, with the fiasco* sending seismic shocks through the global economy and financial markets.

Market experts said the Korean economy and financial markets will experience a steep fall in the months to come in line with the collapse of U.S. markets that will be further scarred by additional bankruptcies of financial firms.


http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2008/09/123_31104.html

Listen to this:
Quote:

``The U.S. stock market is likely to slide by 10 or 20 percent before the end of 2008. Now the worry is the 250 to 300 smaller financial entities, which are in trouble. Most will probably go down,'' Mauro F. Guillen, director of the Lauder Institute at the Wharton School of Business, told The Korea Times.

``There is going to be a selling panic on the Korean stock markets. Currencies that evolve with the dollar will go down, at least in the short term. If the U.S. economy does not start growing again, Asian exporters, including Korea, will have trouble,'' he added.


Talk about screaming "Fire!" in a crowded theater.

Who is this "expert?"

He is a professor of management theory and sociology, with a PhD in sociology from Yale, who teaches at the respected Wharton School of Management.

I'm glad the KT finally figured out how to telephone experts in the U.S. (why couldn't they do this during the mad cow "fiasco?"). But wouldn't an economist or at least a specialist in exchange rates have been more appropriate than a sociologist?

Do you get the impression from reading the article that the Korean economy is going to collapse, and it is all going to be America's fault?

Wasn't President Lee vowing at the beginning of the year to stimulate the economy to restore the growth rate to, what was it, 6 percent? And just last week he was proposing a $50 billion stimulus package to buy hub caps for Korea.

The international economic storm clouds have been on the horizon for well over a year, at least since April 2007, although there had been warnings from experts in the American press beginning about three years ago, now.

The correct approach, when faced with prospects of such economic turmoil, is not to loosen credit, but to tighten it. Korea zigged when it should have zagged. The result is Korea is saddled with lots of debt, which has already sparked talk of a "September crisis."

It would be nice if the Korean press would ask at least some questions of experts about Korean economic policy, and whether it is appropriate for the current conditions, as well as how Korea is going to respond.

There are some other articles, including one with this quote from a Korean "expert."
Quote:

``As Lehman filed for Chapter 11, meaning that it has completely gone belly-up, it is highly likely that domestic firms exposed to the U.S. company will suffer considerable losses,'' said Hong Hun-pio, an analyst from Eugene Investment & Securities.


The Chapter 11 filing by Lehman Bros. means that it has filed for reorganization. A Chapter 7 filing is used when a firm goes "belly up" and is liquidating.

If the Korean economy does not go into a tailspin, I would be surprised, because the political leaders, protesters and union organizers seem to have done everything possible in the past year to destroy their own economy.

* * * * *

*fiasco: an utter and often ridiculous failure especially of an ambitious or pretentious undertaking.

Who is this reporter Kim Ju-sung? Is he also the Korea Times' theater critic? I'm sorry he didn't enjoy the show.
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JCISML



Joined: 06 Dec 2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 4:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Barclays in talks to acquire Lehman business, so not everything is lost yet


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/barclays-talks-buy-lehmans-core/story.aspx?guid=%7BE27A45D6%2D4A76%2D4CB3%2D952E%2D41FE73F9BC80%7D

AIG is said to be too big to be allowed to fail.
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 4:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good point, JCISML. But I believe Barclays is only interested in the British operations.

So, will any Korean businesses (or another Asian country?) make an offer to purchase Lehman Bros.' Korean offices?
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wylies99



Joined: 13 May 2006
Location: I'm one cool cat!

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 4:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This would be terrible for the US and South Korea-


AIG downgraded as it struggles to shore up books
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080916/ap_on_bi_ge/aig
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 4:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, I am feeling sorry for Korea that it is getting dragged down by the gross regulatory mismanagement of these investment banks by the U.S. government, as well as the housing crisis.

It's not just Korea affected. If you do a google news search, many countries are writing similar stories about their exposure to losses from Lehman Bros. And the potential international exposure to a failure of AIG seems to be even greater.

It is not completely surprising that American firms could be this stupid. But it is surprising that so many countries got sucked into investments related to home mortgages in the U.S. they had little or no expertise in, or at least less than the average resident of the U.S.

But if Korean investors panic, the KOSPI could see greater declines than the NYSE. And the Korea Times articles seem intent on stoking panic. We will soon see how sophisticated they are.

There is an important lesson here, but one that is likely to be learned too late. Korea is affected by the American economy, as is much of the rest of the world, far more than most foreigners seem to have realized.

This lesson is important because it is Korea that has tried to kick American business in the balls. It is like two chain gang prisoners chained together, with one trying to drown the other. While emotionally gratifying, the pleasure is bound to be short lived.
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skeeterses



Joined: 25 Oct 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So who is this "sociology" expert the OP is talking about? Most likely someone who knows all too well the herd mentality and the stupidity of people who "invest." For over 15 years, investing in America has less to do with economic fundementals and more to do with gambling on lottery tickets. When people invest in Wall Street, they don't do so with the expectation of Ford or GM selling more cars. No; they do so with the expectation of profits and stock prices magically going up without the company actually selling anything. Just look at the size of America's trade deficit, that alone ought to tell people something.

The real bubble is not the housing bubble even, although that's quite a big bubble in itself. The real bubble is the equities bubble that basically makes up most of the US Financial Industry. When Bill Clinton took office in 1992, the DOW Jones Industrial Average went from a measly 1000 points to over 8000 points by the time Clinton left office. And when George W. Bush took over, the DOW went to over 14,000 points. Now, in 15 years, did any of us see our incomes go up by a factor of 14? Did America sell 14 times as many products and actually fix that trade deficit that started under Ronald Reagan's time?
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komerican



Joined: 17 Dec 2006

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know! Let's blame the whole credit meltdown on confucianism! Quick find out if there were any confucianists spotted on Wall Street in the last few days. (typical herd-mentality bias you see on these pages)
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

komerican wrote:
I know! Let's blame the whole credit meltdown on confucianism! Quick find out if there were any confucianists spotted on Wall Street in the last few days. (typical herd-mentality bias you see on these pages)


Wow... some thin skin in here.
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The initial function of the stock market is to provide capital to companies.


It has turned into a gambling game.
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Kiarell



Joined: 29 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When the American economy sneezes the whole world catches a cold. It's only to get much, much worse.
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Yaya



Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 1:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kiarell wrote:
When the American economy sneezes the whole world catches a cold. It's only to get much, much worse.


And the Korean economy gets pneumonia.
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Gollywog



Joined: 14 Jun 2008
Location: Debussy's brain

PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But in Korea, don't they believe germs are good for you?

Here, Korea, have some of America's germs.
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spliff



Joined: 19 Jan 2004
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lax regulation has let the stock market to turn into a ponzi scheme. It was only a matter of time those in the know would take their mega profits. I think it also has a lot to do w/ the fear that a liberal might be elected as well. Things will settle down after the election.
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blaseblasphemener



Joined: 01 Jun 2006
Location: There's a voice, keeps on calling me, down the road, that's where I'll always be

PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 6:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

spliff wrote:
Lax regulation has let the stock market to turn into a ponzi scheme. It was only a matter of time those in the know would take their mega profits. I think it also has a lot to do w/ the fear that a liberal might be elected as well. Things will settle down after the election.


You mean McCain? From the party that supports deficit spending, welfare (corporate), big government (re: military expenditures). Not exactly Liberal, but not Conservative, either. Just Republican I guess.
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skeeterses



Joined: 25 Oct 2007

PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well you all know the difference between the Democrats and Conservatives;
One party is a bunch of tax and spend liberals and the other party is a bunch of tax and spend conservatives.
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