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What's your cutoff limit?

 
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Murph



Joined: 31 Dec 2006

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:42 pm    Post subject: What's your cutoff limit? Reply with quote

I am just curious as to whether or not most of you have a figure (exchange rate) in your minds whereby if the won reaches that amount you'll decide that it's time to leave Korea. Personally I plan to stay here for another two or three years, so I am going to try to ride out the storm with the hope of an economic turn around before I leave. Which camp are most of you in?
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ccikulin



Joined: 23 Mar 2008
Location: Sunae-dong, Bundang

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm with you. Riding out the storm. I'll keep my won until the exchange rate gets back near 1000-$1. In in for the long haul anyway.
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Kimchieluver



Joined: 02 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^same
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xCustomx



Joined: 06 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't have a specific cutoff. I was planning to leave in March, but with 4 years of savings taking a 30% loss this year, I may sign on for another year and hope things improve.
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poet13



Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Location: Just over there....throwing lemons.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm excited about the faling won. I'm importing lots of dollars. By next week, I should have transferred in about 35KUS. I'm hoping the won/dollar rate hits 1400. 1350 will though and I will sell the dollars. When the won gets stronger, and eventually it will, I will buy dollars. Hoping for 900 in two years. If you think about this exchange rate in the right way, it's wonderful.
35,000$ X 1350 =47,250,000. 47,250,000won / 900 won to the dollar =
52,500$. About 33% in two years....not bad.

I think the difference between many of you and myself, is that we have no intention of taking our bucks back to Canada or the US.

Bought a 10 million won TD yesterday too at 6.3%. Post tax (15%) generates abotu 520,000won profit.

Damn, now if only all these won were dollars! Very Happy
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cruisemonkey



Joined: 04 Jul 2005
Location: Hopefully, the same place as my luggage.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I brought $10,000 USD back from summer vacation and have been trying to decide when to buy won... 1,350 sounds good. It's at 1,271 at the moment.
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Otherside



Joined: 06 Sep 2007

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cruisemonkey wrote:
I brought $10,000 USD back from summer vacation and have been trying to decide when to buy won... 1,350 sounds good. It's at 1,271 at the moment.


Don't miss the boat on this one! 1271 is a good deal and you know it! While 1350 is better, I don't think anyone knows with any certainity which way it's going to go. (My personal opinion is that now the won is heavily undervalued, people have been ditching emerging currencies based on emotion rather than fundementals, and it's due for a BIG correction, then question is when.) I'd play around the 1250 - 1300 band. Gets to 1250 sell, get's to 1300 sell. Perhaps even selling half now would be a good call, and then you can play with a bigger band for the other half (ps it's 1269 now Smile )
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Otherside



Joined: 06 Sep 2007

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:11 pm    Post subject: Re: What's your cutoff limit? Reply with quote

Murph wrote:
I am just curious as to whether or not most of you have a figure (exchange rate) in your minds whereby if the won reaches that amount you'll decide that it's time to leave Korea. Personally I plan to stay here for another two or three years, so I am going to try to ride out the storm with the hope of an economic turn around before I leave. Which camp are most of you in?


For me, the situation is a little different as I'm dealing with South African Rands. The won has been flirting with a 5+ year low vs the rand these past few days. (It's at 144 now, was at 146 last week which was a 5+year low). That being said, the fluctuations haven't been as dramatic as against other currencies. Except for a brief period last year where it reached a record high (118) the won has been trading at around 130-135 vs the rand, so the current drop is only about a 10% decline (It was 137 when I came to Korea, which is how I see whether I'm winning or losing). That being said, yesterday the Rand reached a 5 year low vs the US dollar, so it's a case of emerging currencies getting punished.

I believe a 10-15% fluctuation is par for the course in working abroad, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. However, once the drop starts to head in the 20%+ direction I'll start to get scared. It isn't helping that most of my money is tied up in equities which seem to be in freefall at the moment.
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pkang0202



Joined: 09 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regardless of the exchange rate, I'd want to stay til the end of my contract so I can collect the severance money.
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Zutronius



Joined: 16 Apr 2007
Location: Suncheon

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going to stick around Korea another year or two and hope for the best. The exchange rate sucks, but I will still be able to pay off my debts and save for some land if I stick it out. It sucks but it's not the end of the world.
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pidgin



Joined: 31 Jul 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3 bottles of soju (w/ beer) when out but at home......oh!...ooops....sorry Embarassed


Uh,....I' stayin' put. In for the looooong haul.
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sojourner1



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it appears the Won is taking a lengthy dump that's not going back up any time soon. The Korean economy is dependent on Americans buying their exports, but America is buying less and less as the strings on credit are pulled tight and job opportunities continue to decrease. Better get your Vaseline Intensive Care ready folks regardless of where you try to escape from the new Great Depression coming about.

Since the Won is declining, expect inflation to really set in on Korea as they have to import most everything as they have very little domestically. Instead of juice being 2,500 won, it'll probably be 3,000 or more before long. Expect many cut backs to come about on everything from government budgets to infrastructure projects to education to business development. The Asia boom is over and bust is right around the corner.

I would say to just stick it out; don't pull a runner, but eat the losses if it's still low when you're ready to leave Korea such as at the end of your contract.
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cruisemonkey



Joined: 04 Jul 2005
Location: Hopefully, the same place as my luggage.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2:54 pm Oct. 7 and it's at 1,332!
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Typhoon



Joined: 29 May 2007
Location: Daejeon

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm Canadian, I'm out of here this February with 9 years of savings....that is a lot of money. I am resigned to the fact that this is going to take more than a few month to correct...most experts are now saying it will take years and years to correct (maybe 20 years). I am just going to put my money into a couple of interest accounts here in Korea and let the money gain interest. If and when the exchange gets back into the 900-1000 range my wife will come back here and send the money to Canada. Until then it just isn't worth it to send home. The problem is it is looking it could take over 5 or 10 years to come back to where it was (20 is the worst I heard on MSNBC today). If you are waiting things out make a good plan and be sure that you have a back up plan. The "D" word is being thrown around a lot these days...in a world sense not an American sense. If the world goes into an economic despression Korea's export based economy is in big trouble, that is why the Won is tanking. It won't get better until the world economy gets better. That could take a long time. Be prepared.
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D.D.



Joined: 29 May 2008

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow it just lost 100 bucks in one hour. We are all doomed doomed I tell you doomed.
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