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Whistleblower

Joined: 03 Feb 2007
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:49 pm Post subject: Is the 2nd IMF Going to Happen Here |
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I was chatting to some fellow Koreans at work and they are really stressed at the moment due to house prices being inflated, debt soaring and jobs being cut.
One guy in particular, whose wife owns a restaurant, has so much pressure with regards to rental price, etc increasing and is considering closing the place.
I get the feeling that Korea's economic bubble is going burst very very soon and when it does, it will surprise all Koreans. Do you think that Korea will return to the days like during 1997? Will hagwon still be around in a year? Seriously people, have a backup plan 'cos this place may sink in a year. |
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sojourner1

Joined: 17 Apr 2007 Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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Dang, you just blew the whistle. I hope not. Paying 1200 to 2000 won for a $ is messed up. I tell you in today's economy, we're just getting jacked from all ways. |
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640x480
Joined: 02 Apr 2008
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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My cousin from the states is telling me how crappy it is in the states right now. Everyone's feeling this one...
BTW, this is exactly why teaching jobs are so coveted in Korea...IMF or not the schools have to keep running. I heard teacher's here get tenure right away, job security anyone? |
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Cheonmunka

Joined: 04 Jun 2004
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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Speculation in real estate in Seoul/Kyongi is one of the most nefarious things about the economy and the money spin.
Most people I know buy apartments only on expectations of (high) capital gain. They do interest-only loans and need 15% year on year up-valuations to keep their investment positive. In recession when gain isn't realized they moan and groan. Some even blow themselves and their families up with dynamite. Others sigh with them and share their misery, but I have no sympathy. You play the game and go for higher rewards.
I don't play the game. I will often be the quintessential loser - until ... 'pop goes the bubble.' |
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Whistleblower

Joined: 03 Feb 2007
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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I wouldn't expect your school to be around in a year. They would probably downsize during a bad economic period and would cut staff. Guys, I would advise you all to have a backup plan. Save your cash for a rainy day and able to buy your way back.
It is all a gloomy prospect next year. Don't forget you have been warned. |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:57 pm Post subject: |
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If IMF happened again, I don't think anyone would be bailing Korea out, because it's bad everywhere. |
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Yaya

Joined: 25 Feb 2003 Location: Seoul
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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Whistleblower wrote: |
I wouldn't expect your school to be around in a year. They would probably downsize during a bad economic period and would cut staff. Guys, I would advise you all to have a backup plan. Save your cash for a rainy day and able to buy your way back.
It is all a gloomy prospect next year. Don't forget you have been warned. |
It's gloomy but not a second IMF, as Korea still remembers the lessons from 1997. Yes, short-term debt is up and consumption and exports are down, but well, I've heard this "the sky is falling" cry before after the IMF crisis and it's highly unlikely.
Korea is a lot less dependent on the U.S. market now that it has diversified its export markets and has FAR more forex reserves (more than $200 billion) than it did before 1997 (around $55 billion).
Another report said Koreans tend to spend MORE on education in tough times. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:28 pm Post subject: |
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Ignore the warnings about losing your job. That is scare-mongering.
I was here during the '97 melt down. Only the small mom & pop hakwons with few students need to worry. Even then, there will be other teaching jobs available. The need for English will not go away. Just move to a public school if necessary. The demand in the public schools is higher than the supply.
It wouldn't hurt to keep enough money in your account to fly out of here if an emergency happens. That's common sense at any time.
As the economy contracts, watch for bargains but don't be foolish. |
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saw6436
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Daejeon, ROK
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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I got her in 98. WON was around 1,300 to the dollar. The Hagwon I started at hired me because of booming enrolement. Koreans tend to invest more money into education during hard economic times.
I'm not overly worried at this time for my self. I am a bit worried as my wife is pregnant with twins so were going to get a double whammy in a few months. |
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poet13
Joined: 22 Jan 2006 Location: Just over there....throwing lemons.
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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Twins wow. Congratulations. That has to be scary. We just had our second child, and I'm a little worried about how to keep everything afloat. |
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Typhoon
Joined: 29 May 2007 Location: Daejeon
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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:06 pm Post subject: |
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The IMF is not going to happen again. The world is going into depression by the sounds of things. If that happens all countries will be in the same boat. Every country for themselves. |
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Harpeau
Joined: 01 Feb 2003 Location: Coquitlam, BC
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Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:03 am Post subject: |
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saw6436 wrote: |
I got her in 98. WON was around 1,300 to the dollar. The Hagwon I started at hired me because of booming enrolement. Koreans tend to invest more money into education during hard economic times.
I'm not overly worried at this time for my self. I am a bit worried as my wife is pregnant with twins so were going to get a double whammy in a few months. |
Well, I got here in 1997 and many places closed down, laid-off and downsized. And you kn ow what?! It can certainly happen again. |
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aka Dave
Joined: 02 May 2008 Location: Down by the river
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Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 1:02 am Post subject: |
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It's really scary. The European markets are falling apart as well ( http://www.lemonde.fr/ if you can understand French). This isn't potentially an IMF. It's potentially a global depression, which is far worse. One upside is China, Korean's top export market, is still chugging alont. However, to the huffingtonpost.com 6 in 10 Americans are predicting a depression.
I work at a Univ. I pretty much have been offered a job renewal starting March next year, however God knows how secure that is. My students aren't really talking about the economics stuff so it doesn't sound like they're having trouble with tuition.
Every day the news seems to get worse. I'm just gonna hold my won as long as I can, and that might be years atm. |
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Manner of Speaking

Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 1:24 am Post subject: |
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I have been planning to enroll in a Korean language course at one of the big unis for the next year or so full-time...stop working. With things the way they are, do you guys think I'd be ok to take the course, or would I be better off to keep working and stashing the cash? |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 1:40 am Post subject: |
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MOS, if you have been seriously planning it -- take the course. If you happen to have money overseas, you could probably live off of that via ATM and do pretty well. hahaha
To learn Korean is good, if you can do it. |
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