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How long will the U.S. dollar continue to strengthen?

 
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No_hite_pls



Joined: 05 Mar 2007
Location: Don't hate me because I'm right

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:37 am    Post subject: How long will the U.S. dollar continue to strengthen? Reply with quote

Anyone?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Impossible to know. Nobody knows what is going on day to day anymore.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why is it strengthening at all?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It, and government bonds denominated it in, are seen as the last totally safe spot on earth. If you have billions to watch over, the money market funds and banks aren't stable enough. Oddly, as global equity markets recover, the dollar should decrease in value.

Remember also that the dollar is gaining against other currencies. As oil gets cheaper (and other commodity prices deflate) other central banks have to worry less about inflation and can create more "liquidity" to save their banking systems and stimulate aggregate demand. Also, the "short dollar", "long energy" is unwinding.

But really. Who knows anymore. The whole system is a total clusterfuck right now.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I feel like I should be looking around for the most profligate, wasteful, irresponsible person I know and hand over my bank account number to him/her for safe-keeping...you know, just to keep in step with the best financial minds of the times.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I got thousands of bux in US. And I work in the Canadian software industry. So a strong $US is good for me. Really good.
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RJjr



Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Location: Turning on a Lamp

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure what's going on with the dollar. If I had to guess, I think it will strengthen over the short term, but eventually collapse under the weight of our debts.

One of my hobbies throughout my life has been to get boxes and bags of pennies from the bank to look for rare ones. Over the past four or five years, I've been hoarding all of the 95% copper ones too in an attempt to simultaneously hedge against both inflation and deflation. But a person has to really have a strong interest in numismatics for it to be worthwhile, since it's tedious.
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seosan08



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To quote Chris Laird in a recent article:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/oct232008.html

"........Since the resource correction this year, all the BRIC nations and commodity economies have taken big hits. That is causing sell offs in emerging markets, which drives demand for USD that repatriates back to the US. Everyone worldwide wants dollars as markets deleverage.

Hedge funds and big money market funds are having huge redemptions. That drives demand for dollars, and stocks are falling and will continue to fall. In short, as markets deleverage worldwide, and there is flight to US Treasuries by all, (and other good sovereign bonds) and demand for the USD rises..........."

In a nutshell, everyone is losing their ass and are having to sell assets to cover losses. The US$ is having a field day now, but it won't last long into 2009, at which time, the dollar will fall faster than a than a bitch slapped crack *beep*.

The fundamentals of the USA have not changed, except the US$ is temporarily strong. Bad debt, outsourced jobs, falling land values, etc... The US economy is going to crash, it's just having an Indian Summer before it does. Gold and silver prices are being suppressed on paper by COMEX, but there is a huge difference between paper and real world prices. You can't touch gold and silver for it's paper price.

The moral of the story is, a financial shit storm is coming world wide, and those with precious metals will come out ahead!
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

seosan08 wrote:

The moral of the story is, a financial shit storm is coming world wide, and those with precious metals will come out ahead!


Well, maybe. Or maybe not. After a period of deflation it is possible that central banks will raise rates. Volker is apparently one of the lead economic advisers to Obama.

But the long term outlook is likely strong. A growing India will make sure of that.
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