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Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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 Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:15 am Post subject: McCain-Obama race may be decided early; watch VIRGINIA |
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20081104/pl_bloomberg/amxtbxva0ssi;_ylt=AgCuo_nRHdKSa_1BAuW29pBsnwcF
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Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama and John McCain will be carefully watching Virginia early tonight. Television viewers should, too.
The state is in the first wave to close polling places, at 7 p.m. Washington time. The results will be telling. Obama has pushed hard to flip the state, which hasn't backed a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and he led in pre-election polls.
``An Obama win in Virginia would be a sign the race is over,'' said John Fortier, a research fellow at Washington's American Enterprise Institute who wrote a book about the U.S. Electoral College. ``If he wins Virginia, he is likely to be doing well elsewhere.''
Virginia's results may signal a tidal wave of states turning Democratic after backing Republican President George W. Bush in 2004. Another on the watch list at 7 p.m. is Indiana, which also hasn't backed a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won in a nationwide landslide 44 years ago.
Ohio follows Virginia and Indiana with a scheduled poll closing time of 7:30 p.m. Washington time. In 2004, the state and its 20 electoral votes remained too close to call until the next day, when Democrat John Kerry conceded. For McCain, the state is critical: No Republican has ever won the White House without claiming Ohio.
Red States Close
North Carolina and West Virginia, two other states Obama is contesting that went Republican in the last two elections, close at the same time as Ohio.
Half an hour later, at 8 p.m., the biggest of the battleground states, Florida, is slated to close all its polls, along with those in Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
``It is nearly impossible for McCain to win without winning Ohio, Virginia, and Florida,'' Fortier said. Bush won all three in 2004, ending up with 286 Electoral College votes. A candidate needs 270 to get to the White House.
The first poll closings may also offer early clues on Senate and House races. Kentucky's balloting is due to finish by 7 p.m. and attention will be on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's efforts to hold his seat. A loss for the Republican would bolster Senate Democrats' chances of getting to the 60 seats they need to block a filibuster.
`Important Signal'
McConnell's race will ``be a very important signal,'' said Rogan Kersh, a public service professor at New York University. If he loses, ``that likely means a Democratic surge across the board: a `tsunami election.'''
In the 8 p.m. hour, a major Senate race to watch is in New Hampshire, where Republican John Sununu is struggling against a challenge from former Governor Jeanne Shaheen. A Sununu victory may mean Republicans will be able to limit their losses.
The full picture in the Senate won't be known until after polls close in Oregon and Alaska, where two Republicans are defending their seats. In Oregon, where polls close at 11 p.m., Senator Gordon Smith is suffering from the voter backlash against Bush; Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is on the ropes after being convicted last week for failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts. Alaska's balloting ends at midnight Washington time.
Democratic chances of adding two dozen or more seats to their majority in the House of Representatives depend on gains in populous states such as Florida and Ohio. Results for House races typically lag behind statewide races for Senate and president.
Battle for Pennsylvania
The first returns from Pennsylvania, one of the few Democratic ``blue'' states that McCain actively fought for in the final days of the campaign will come at 8 p.m. Washington time. A McCain victory there would be a major boost for the Republican's chances.
While results in key states such as Virginia and Ohio may mean the race is all but over, no candidate will have enough electoral votes to claim victory until 9 p.m. at the earliest.
Obama, 47, an Illinois senator, could surpass 270 at that time by winning all of the states Kerry claimed and a handful of the states that backed Bush in 2004 and where he held a pre- election lead in polls. Among those so-called red states are Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.
McCain, 72, an Arizona senator, would need to win all the other Bush states from 2004 -- mounting what polls suggest would be an upset in several of them -- and pick up a vote-rich Kerry state such as Pennsylvania, or a few of the smaller blue states.
Many states will be too close to call right away. The Associated Press and television networks use a combination of data including returns in selected precincts, previous voter polls and exit polling on Election Day when making their calls.
2000 Debacle
Networks became more cautious after the debacle in 2000, when they had to retract declarations first that Vice President Al Gore had won Florida and then that it had fallen into Bush's column. The AP often holds back a bit longer than the networks; the newswire never called Florida for Bush in 2000. The state's vote, and thus the winner of the election, wasn't settled until more than a month later when the U.S. Supreme Court blocked further ballot recounts.
Both candidates are assembling squadrons of lawyers in case the contest for the White House isn't settled on Election Day. They are being dispatched to monitor voting and be ready to file challenges over potential fraud or voter intimidation. In Florida alone, Democrats have assembled almost 5,000 lawyers.
Election officials, meanwhile, are bracing for a huge turnout, and some states may opt to extend polling hours because of long lines or ballot problems, delaying election results.
The finale will come in Alaska. While the Stevens senatorial race will be closely watched, the state shouldn't play a major role in the presidential campaign. McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, figure they can count on those three electoral votes.
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: |
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Citizen activists watching Virginia:
SUBJECT: Fairfax VA memory cards did not work Election morning
VIRGINIA: Article on CNN - of particular concern is: "Fairfax County, Virginia, General Registrar Rokey Suleman said a handful of memory cards did not work when machines were started Tuesday morning. He said replacement memory cards already have been sent to those precincts with problems."
Replacing memory cards on election day? Does Virginia law allow for this?
And also in Willingboro, New Jersey:
"Dugan said a mechanic was working on the machines and they are expected to be repaired soon. In the meantime, voters were being given emergency ballots."
Voting machines being serviced on election day in New Jersey?? Sounds rather fishy.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/voting.problems/index.html
Bev Harris
Board Administrator
Username: Admin
Posted on Tuesday, November 4, 2008 - 7:45 am:
Thanks for catching this. Please note, readers, that memory card replacements may or may not have gone through the check and balance of Logic & Accuracy testing, and voting machines serviced by technicians in the middle of the election definitely bypass the L&A test checks and balances. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:31 am Post subject: |
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Kentucky's balloting is due to finish by 7 p.m. and attention will be on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's efforts to hold his seat. A loss for the Republican would bolster Senate Democrats' chances of getting to the 60 seats they need to block a filibuster.
`Important Signal'
McConnell's race will ``be a very important signal,'' said Rogan Kersh, a public service professor at New York University. If he loses, ``that likely means a Democratic surge across the board: a `tsunami election.''' |
Its not a signal of anything. McConnell is not exactly beloved, but his Democratic opponent Lunsford is regarded as a crook.
When I just voted, I wrote in for KY's US Senate seat. I suppose that's a bad sign for Lunsford. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: |
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I agree that returns in Pennsylvania and Virginia will largely confirm B. Obama's victory.
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Canuckistan: you are becoming like IGTG, spamming your message on all threads, beating us over the head with it. How about this: I agree with you; these do not represent mere glitches; rather, the sky is falling and we are all going to die. Can we move on and follow the election now? |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: |
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| Can we move on and follow the election now? |
You cannot follow the election without following the memory cards, tabulators, or middlemen and their servers who see the counts before everyone else. They are the election. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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I figure we should know by 11am (Wednesday - Korean time) whether Obama will get a landslide win - or Republican cheating will cause another mudslide that will bury the democratic process ...
(Either way, "Canuckistan" should then be lobbying for getting us back our picture-posting privileges  ...) |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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CNN reported 5 hour lines in Virginia.
Rteacher, by the way, I've asked about that too and was hoping to get the image function back today so we could post maps and charts. |
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Enrico Palazzo
Mod Team
Joined: 11 Mar 2008
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Does anyone go on that intrade sight? I heard it's very popular. There is a good chance Obama will take Virginia, but it won't be easy. It would be good to have a decisive victory. |
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ReeseDog
Joined: 05 Apr 2008
Location: Classified
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Looking good for McCain in VA just now. |
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cheeseface
Joined: 13 Jan 2008
Location: Ssyangnyeon Shi
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:15 pm Post subject: |
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| ReeseDog wrote: |
| Looking good for McCain in VA just now. |
Consolation prize? |
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ReeseDog
Joined: 05 Apr 2008
Location: Classified
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:19 pm Post subject: |
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| cheeseface wrote: |
| ReeseDog wrote: |
| Looking good for McCain in VA just now. |
Consolation prize? |
No, it would be a good win for the right. However, Florida is looking iffy. A pessimist would go to bed right now... |
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traxxe
Joined: 21 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:25 pm Post subject: |
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My friend from college is running the dem side of things in the north half of virginia. He just commented that it looks good for Virginia for the dems with the remaining reports still coming in.
Anyway, Ohio went Obama. It's over. Even Fox News is starting to admit it is over shy of a Jesus intervention. |
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Kikomom
Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: them thar hills--Penna, USA--Zippy is my kid, the teacher in ROK. You can call me Kiko
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Virginia's turning into a squeaker. But PA and OH are being called for Obama. So as Katie Couric just said, "The cake is baked." |
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ReeseDog
Joined: 05 Apr 2008
Location: Classified
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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I know what Fox is saying. It's not over yet. That is, Ohio doesn't mean the end of things, though it's looking bleak. New Mexico will seal the deal.
Virginia is still in the air.
Last edited by ReeseDog on Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:30 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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Ohio was just called for Obama by MSNBC. They have it at 195/85.
States too close to call which have been closed for awhile:
Virginia
Indiana
North Carolina |
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