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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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 Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:59 pm Post subject: Electoral shenannigans in Alaska? |
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Linked to this through Andrew Sullivan, who is giving it some credence...
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Four years ago, 313,592 out of 474,740 registered voters in Alaska participated in the election-a 66% turnout. Taking into account 49,000 outstanding ballots, on Tuesday 272,633 out of 495,731 registered Alaskans showed up at the polls; a turnout of 54.9%. That�s a decrease of more than 11% in voter turnout even though passions ran high for and against Obama, as well as for and against Sarah Palin! This year, early voters set a new record. As of last Thursday, with 4 days left for early voting, 15,000 Alaskans showed up-shattering the old record set in 2004 by 28%! Consider the most popular governor in history-and now the most polarizing-was on the Republican ticket. Consider the historic nature of this race; the first African American presidential candidate EVER! The second woman to ever make a presidential ticket; and she�s one of our own. Despite that, we�re supposed to believe that overall participation DECREASED by 11%. Not only that, but this historic election both nationally and for Alaska HAD THE LOWEST ALASKA TURNOUT FOR A PRESIDENTIAL RACE EVER!!! That makes sense. REALLY??? Something stinks.
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| Pre election polls had both Mark Begich-D and Ethan Berkowitz-D solidly beating incumbents Senator Ted Stevens and Congressman Don Young by at least 6-10 points. Stevens is currently ahead by 3,353 votes with 49,000 ballots left to count. Berkowitz, however, is behind by 16,887 votes; a 51-43 margin. Are we to believe Don Young came from an 8 point average polling deficit to win by 8 points-a whopping 16 point turnaround??? Remember how historic the pundits thought Hillary Clinton�s come from behind New Hampshire Primary victory was? She trailed Barack Obama by 9% in the pre primary polls and ended up winning by 2 points. It was called the most �stunning comeback in political history.� On Election Night, Don Young topped Hillary Clinton�s startling and unprecedented comeback. Furthermore, there were nearly three thousand Alaskans, (2,783) that voted yet left the hotly contested congressional race blank. In the highly publicized senate race, complete with a nationally covered trial that ended with seven felony convictions for the incumbent, 1,392 Alaskans submitted a ballot and failed to register a vote in the senate race. I�m not sure statistically what that means, but it strikes me as odd that well over a thousand Alaskans would wait in long lines and not cast a vote in either the senate race or the congressional race-especially since there was only one ballot measure. In addition, this particular election had an extra high degree of local interest with Governor Palin on the national stage |
http://tinyurl.com/5ovzc9
FiveThirtyEight also has an analysis of the stats...
http://tinyurl.com/5dbr83 |
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khyber
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Compunction Junction
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| Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't know. I trust Ted Stevens! I'm sure things are on the up and up. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| It does smell fishy, doesn't it? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Definitely grounds for suspicion. Although Andrew barks at just about every disturbance, Nate Silver is a poller of the online reality-based community. |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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Sounds like something out of a banana republic. I think the elections need to become more standardized and federal and there needs to be a paper trail and independent people examining the ballots.
They should have an equal number of people from both parties counting and responsible for tabulating things. It only makes sense. They could also add someone from a third party. If the polls show you are losing big time, then you should be expected to lose, not win. |
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ernie
Joined: 05 Aug 2006
Location: asdfghjk
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| Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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| maybe it's because by the time most alaskans were to vote the election was pretty much over. in 2004 and 2000, the vote was close so every electoral vote mattered. this year obama won in a cakewalk. |
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