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Won near IMF level. Contract time soon. Demand more?
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 12:34 pm    Post subject: Won near IMF level. Contract time soon. Demand more? Reply with quote

Here is a photo of the won vs. the US dollar during the IMF crisis. Does it look similar?

http://72.232.229.42/thumb/a/a1/KRW-USD_1989-.png/400px-KRW-USD_1989-.png

*And now added, thanks to the poster below, a more accurate day-by-day result of how long it took to dump during IMF:

11/10/1997 999.0 11/11/1997 990.0 11/12/1997 989.0 11/13/1997 987.90 11/14/1997 986.60 11/15/1997 986.60 11/16/1997 986.60 11/17/1997 986.0 11/18/1997 1020.0 11/19/1997 1035.50 11/20/1997 1133.0 11/21/1997 1080.0 11/22/1997 1060.0 11/23/1997 1060.0 11/24/1997 1100.0 11/25/1997 1120.0 11/26/1997 1113.0 11/27/1997 1115.0 11/28/1997 1166.0 11/29/1997 1166.0 11/30/1997 1166.0 12/01/1997 1175.0 12/02/1997 1246.0 12/03/1997 1265.0 12/04/1997 1152.0 12/05/1997 1220.0 12/06/1997 1233.0 12/07/1997 1233.0 12/08/1997 1333.0 12/09/1997 1430.0 12/10/1997 1430.0 12/11/1997 1430.0 12/12/1997 1740.0 12/13/1997 1715.0 12/14/1997 1715.0 12/15/1997 1663.0 12/16/1997 1405.0 12/17/1997 1488.0 12/18/1997 1485.0 12/19/1997 1621.0 12/20/1997 1580.0 12/21/1997 1580.0 12/22/1997 1680.0 12/23/1997 1967.0 12/24/1997 1840.0 12/25/1997 1835.0 12/26/1997 1516.0 12/27/1997 1506.0 12/28/1997 1506.0 12/29/1997 1462.0 12/30/1997 1615.0 12/31/1997 1695.0 01/01/1998 1695.0 01/02/1998 1695.0 01/03/1998 1695.0 01/04/1998 1695.0 01/05/1998 1720.0 01/06/1998 1792.0 01/07/1998 1795.0 01/08/1998 1790.0 01/09/1998 1807.0 01/10/1998 1812.0 01/11/1998 1812.0 01/12/1998 1740.0 01/13/1998 1756.0 01/14/1998 1700.0 01/15/1998 1618.0 01/16/1998 1624.0 01/17/1998 1624.0 01/18/1998 1624.0 01/19/1998 1584.0 01/20/1998 1644.0 01/21/1998 1720.0 01/22/1998 1745.0 01/23/1998 1750.0 01/24/1998 1748.0 01/25/1998 1748.0 01/26/1998 1686.50 01/27/1998 1682.0 01/28/1998 1690.0 01/29/1998 1690.0 01/30/1998 1566.0 01/31/1998 1528.0 02/01/1998 1528.0 02/02/1998 1557.0 02/03/1998 1569.0 02/04/1998 1604.0 02/05/1998 1613.0 02/06/1998 1578.0 02/07/1998 1557.0 02/08/1998 1557.0 02/09/1998 1555.0 02/10/1998 1592.0 02/11/1998 1604.0 02/12/1998 1628.0 02/13/1998 1624.0 02/14/1998 1623.0 02/15/1998 1623.0 02/16/1998 1638.0 02/17/1998 1711.0 02/18/1998 1706.0 02/19/1998 1702.0 02/20/1998 1651.0 02/21/1998 1661.0 02/22/1998 1661.0 02/23/1998 1658.0 02/24/1998 1661.0 02/25/1998 1644.0 02/26/1998 1656.0 02/27/1998 1640.0 02/28/1998 1635.0 03/01/1998 1635.0 03/02/1998 1572.0 03/03/1998 1546.0 03/04/1998 1569.0 03/05/1998 1587.0 03/06/1998 1640.0

Skipping ahead a bit:

03/27/1998 1382.0



We now have the won at over 1400 to 1 US dollar. Forecasts are for it to near 1600 soon. There is inflation, and prices on imports have skyrocketed in recent days. Have you taken a good look around? It's getting nutty. I'm of the opinion that we are in need of some kind of pay adjustment here.

On another note, when I came in 2002, Korean teachers at hagwons were making between 800,000 and 1.4 million won per month. I now have Korean teacher friends making 1.4 to 2.2 teaching at Korean hagwons. Waygook wages have not risen. I started at 2.2 over six years ago!

Now back on topic: during the IMF crisis in 1997, teachers began to leave Korean. I was not here, and am no expert, but I'd like to hear more from those who were here. At what point do you remember teachers leaving?

We're also at contract renegotiation time. As for my university, they asked me if I'd like to renew, and played the usual, "Oh.... we'll review your past year and get back to you..." game. Generally, they've taken their own sweet time to give us a contract. I am now of the opinion that this sort of thing could burn them badly this year.

Why? If other schools starting offering more, I might leave before they've locked me into a contract.

If the won dumps to 1600, then do you see teachers leaving jobs at unis and elsewhere? Will wages jump suddenly as we approach February and there is a teacher crunch? Dynamics are surely different than during the IMF crisis, and I'd like to hear your opinions on all of this.


Last edited by bassexpander on Fri Oct 24, 2008 7:14 pm; edited 3 times in total
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milspecs



Joined: 19 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm gonna make a nice chunk when I transfer my dollars to won next week Very Happy
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Notice that it took a good year for the won to go down from 1600 to 1200.

Given where we are at now, I don't see the won going back below 1200 in ... well... maybe years. Who knows? Nobody.


To keep this all in perspective...

If the average hagwon newbie were earning 2.3 million won per month, then this summer (950 to 1), you grossed $2,421 per month.

Right now, you are earning $1,625 per month. Your salary has dropped nearly $800 per month.

If the won goes to 1600 to 1 US dollar, as predictions are saying, then you're looking at $1,437. That's a loss of $1,000 per month!


Last edited by bassexpander on Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

milspecs wrote:
I'm gonna make a nice chunk when I transfer my dollars to won next week Very Happy


1,000.00 CAD = 1,120,518.93 KRW

That's not bad for Canadian. Hope that rate holds next year when I'm a tourist in Korea.
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Jeff's Cigarettes



Joined: 27 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
We're also at contract renegotiation time. As for my university, they asked me if I'd like to renew, and played the usual, "Oh.... we'll review your past year and get back to you..." game. Generally, they've taken their own sweet time to give us a contract. I am now of the opinion that this sort of thing could burn them badly this year.


Are you sure you didn't ask them? Laughing
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Harpeau



Joined: 01 Feb 2003
Location: Coquitlam, BC

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When I came in April 1997, Hagwons were paying about 1.2-1.3 mil. per month + housing & airfare. Unis were paying maybe 1.3 to 1.4ish, or were paying in US dollars.

People started leaving unis. around mid-Dec. They decided not to renew, or were no longer being paid in US dollars. I remember that being a difficult winter. By Feb. or so, people were starting to make 1.8-2 mi. or so in unis. Hagwons were paying about 1.5 - 1.8, if memory serves me. These are approximate. As the rate improved, it became better for the teachers.

(The Canadian dollar is now beginning to tank. Should make things really interesting!)
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call_the_shots



Joined: 10 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the link. The chart is not entirely correct, though. I checked oanda.com for 1997/98, and the won went above 1700 several times. Heck, it even closed above 1900 once.

bassexpander wrote:
Notice that it took a good year for the won to go down from 1600 to 1200.

Given where we are at now, I don't see the won going back below 1200 in ... well... maybe years. Who knows? Nobody.


That would make this crisis worse than the IMF crisis. Are things really that bad right now?
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Cheonmunka



Joined: 04 Jun 2004

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm surprised people are still here. Kangnam was devoid of caucasians in '97. I did meet a few Canadians in Jongno although even they were carrying their suitcases heading to the subway for Kimpo, citing as they walked, the exchange rate.
Many hagwons did close down. But, there was still a bit of work around but had to look quite hard for it.
I was a student at that time and needed part time work and did get some but it was no walk in the park. English since then has chnaged though. It's really in the national psyche now as a staple diet sort of thing so there might not be the exodus away from English in terms of Korean mothers taking their kids out of classes etc. It might shake the tree a lot though. And in eco rough times a lot of hakwon 'directors' might fall out of it.
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Harpeau



Joined: 01 Feb 2003
Location: Coquitlam, BC

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The exchange rate hit 2000 won to the
Canadian dollar around Christmas Eve.!
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sarbonn



Joined: 14 Oct 2008
Location: Michigan

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm really concerned because I just arrived here, and I was hoping to bank away some money, which I was having a lot of trouble doing back in the states.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sarbonn wrote:
I'm really concerned because I just arrived here, and I was hoping to bank away some money, which I was having a lot of trouble doing back in the states.


Well hang in there. Unless you have to send money home. Ride it out.
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sarbonn



Joined: 14 Oct 2008
Location: Michigan

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mindmetoo wrote:
sarbonn wrote:
I'm really concerned because I just arrived here, and I was hoping to bank away some money, which I was having a lot of trouble doing back in the states.


Well hang in there. Unless you have to send money home. Ride it out.


I'm trying, but I may have to start kicking back to Uncle Sam for my student loans next month.
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esetters21



Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah it pretty much sucks. I've only been here for a few years, so I got accustomed to a favorable or even exchange rate. I picked up after school classes at my school this time around to try and help things out a little. I'm making 500,000 more than at my old job, but still am losing $800 a month in conversion.

If I was up for a new contract or position change, I would definitely be looking for more money.

I'm pretty much resolved to this just being a year of living in Korea (ie..no real savings to speak of once it is up).

As many, many others have suggested. I plan on riding it out and reassessing my situation next year.
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JongnoGuru



Joined: 25 May 2004
Location: peeing on your doorstep

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 6:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Won near IMF level. Contract time soon. Demand more? Reply with quote

bassexpander wrote:
We now have the won at over 1400 to 1 US dollar. Forecasts are for it to near 1600 soon. There is inflation, and prices on imports have skyrocketed in recent days. Have you taken a good look around? It's getting nutty. I'm of the opinion that we are in need of some kind of pay adjustment here.

Nearly every foreigner discussed this non-stop during the IMF Crisis. For a few months the exchange rate (and what to do about it vis-a-vis begging Korean employers for a salary adjustment) seemed the only topic of conversation at every table in every waegook pub, club, chicken hof in the country. From the moment you walked in until hours later when you went home, the discussion would never stray far from how rat-fkked most waegooks were by the events of the day.

And all the while, the news media was feeding us a steady diet of nasty shocks and grim surprises. This went on for months (each one felt like an eternity, one of those 'time seemed to stand still' sort of things) and with no apparent end in sight.

Well, that's a bit of an exaggeration, it wasn't "the only" topic of discussion. We did punctuate the gloom & doom with snickers about the latest chaebol to go mammaries up, or the army of IMF-ed salarymen we'd see every morning -- all dressed up for the office jobs they no longer had, reading magazines on subway station benches all day long, just to delaly the inevitable shame when family & neighbours realise they're unemployed.

One friend's antics:

Whitey wanted K-boss to make up some of his FX losses. K-boss wouldn't budge. Whitey received his next salary, withdrew it in 10,000 won notes, walked up to K-boss and shook it in the guy's face: "I'm working for toilet paper now. This is TOILET PAPER!! Mad" This was in front of a mixed crowd of Korean & foreign staff & management. It accomplished... absolutely nothing. But it's important to keep one's spirits up in difficult times.

Another friend tried to reason with his boss, via his boss' lackey & resident whitey-wrangler:

Yank Friend: Mr. Kim, salaries generally rise with inflation. Inflation is calculated by monitoring the prices of a fixed basket of goods. The single largest "good" in my "basket" -- accounting for well over 50% of the entire basket's value -- is US Dollars. As we all know, the "price" of US Dollars in Korean Won has nearly doubled in the past X months. Now, what is the company prepared to do to make up for my *real*, *actual* cost-of-living increase?'

K-lackey: But.... you live in Korea. Confused Why you caring about Won and Dollar exchanging rate? Confused My boss never can accept you story. No Korean ever can accept you story. It is a nonsense.

Quote:
If the won dumps to 1600, then do you see teachers leaving jobs at unis and elsewhere?

I wondered about this myself, not about that specific exchange rate per se, but just ... at what point along the Won/[insert your currency here] scale do people have to change their plans or make new ones? If Korean employers are as opposed this time as they were during the IMF to shelling out more for whiteys, what happens? Job prospects back home seem far bleaker today than during the late '90s. But then, Home always has the edge over Korea in terms of social safety networks, foodbanks, not to mention the support of family & friends, if things here ever do go to hell. In a handcart.

Is teaching English in Korea becoming a profession best left to the independently wealthy who work for the sheer love of it, and a sideline for military housewives to earn their pin money?


Last edited by JongnoGuru on Fri Oct 24, 2008 6:29 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Davew125



Joined: 11 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

my girlfriend and i are currently saving for a move to Australia. What with all this shite with the won we've had to put our plans on hold for another 6 months-year so we can save the amount that we wanted. Just about to start negotiations for a new contract and you can be sure we're going to be making some big demands - 30% pay rise , new apartment, more holiday next year.....cant think we'll get exactly what we want but we figure that if we ask for more than we want then we might be met half way. We're pretty lucky in the fact that we have a pretty good director who's very friendly and a head foreign teacher who's a really good fella and on fantastic terms with our boss. added to this are school is always having trouble with new teachers and their visas, people pulling out of contracts etc we could be on to a winner, especially if the rate gets back to anything like reasonable by this time next year......but we'll see.
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