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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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 Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:43 pm Post subject: The World's Future, According to National Intel Council... |
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A government report released Thursday paints an alarming picture of an unstable future for international relations defined by waning American influence, a fragmentation of political power and intensifying struggles for increasingly scarce natural resources.
The report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World," was drafted by the National Intelligence Council to better inform U.S. policymakers -- starting with the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama -- about the factors most likely to shape major international trends and conflicts through the year 2025.
"Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength -- even in the military realm -- will decline and U.S. leverage will become more constrained," says the report, which is the fourth in a series from the Intelligence Council.
The report argues that the "international system -- as constructed following the second World War -- will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors."
It argues that the world is in the midst of an unprecedented "transfer of global wealth and power" -- from West to East -- that is being fueled by long-term "increases in oil and commodity prices" along with a gradual shift of manufacturing and certain service industries to Asia.
And yet, while American power and influence are projected to decline, America's burdens are not.
"Despite the recent rise in anti-Americanism, the U.S. probably will continue to be seen as a much-needed regional balancer in the Middle East and Asia," the report notes.
The American military will continue to be expected to play a leading role in the war against global terrorism, though the United States as a whole will be less able to "call the shots without the support of strong partnerships."
America's biggest rival by 2025, the reports says, will be China... |
CNN Reports |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 1:18 am Post subject: |
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I just wonder how the US will continue to pay for policing the world.
It seems that we will have to close at least some overseas bases, reduce the number of imperial wars, and decrease our international policing in order to have any hope of a return to fiscal sanity. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:07 am Post subject: Re: The World's Future, According to National Intel Council. |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| Quote: |
A government report released Thursday paints an alarming picture of an unstable future for international relations defined by waning American influence, a fragmentation of political power and intensifying struggles for increasingly scarce natural resources.
The report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World," was drafted by the National Intelligence Council to better inform U.S. policymakers -- starting with the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama -- about the factors most likely to shape major international trends and conflicts through the year 2025.
"Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength -- even in the military realm -- will decline and U.S. leverage will become more constrained," says the report, which is the fourth in a series from the Intelligence Council.
The report argues that the "international system -- as constructed following the second World War -- will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors."
It argues that the world is in the midst of an unprecedented "transfer of global wealth and power" -- from West to East -- that is being fueled by long-term "increases in oil and commodity prices" along with a gradual shift of manufacturing and certain service industries to Asia.
And yet, while American power and influence are projected to decline, America's burdens are not.
"Despite the recent rise in anti-Americanism, the U.S. probably will continue to be seen as a much-needed regional balancer in the Middle East and Asia," the report notes.
The American military will continue to be expected to play a leading role in the war against global terrorism, though the United States as a whole will be less able to "call the shots without the support of strong partnerships."
America's biggest rival by 2025, the reports says, will be China... |
CNN Reports |
The US has fairly consistently encouraged the modernization and therefore the 'rivalry' of other states. Consequently, a relative decline is not a disaster but a plan (and acceptance) for the future where other states will exercise influence. |
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sojourner1
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug
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| Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:31 am Post subject: |
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This is not news to me. It's already my common knowledge and understanding of what's going on. Of course, this article doesn't elaborate as to why it says what it says.
It's fairly accurate, except the part about America remaining the single most important actor in the future. If we lose all our wealth to the East, then we don't have big power any more. I find it rather disturbing that the wealth and jobs went to the East when it didn't have to but the guys running America sold us out with the claim that American workers are too expensive and don't produce quality work. Americans should had never stood for it when we started to see this double whammy coming 15 years ago.
If you're from the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, South Africa, or Canada, how would you feel if the leaders of your country told you and your people are not good enough to be adequately employed nor deserve a living wage or salary and then set you and your country men up to an miserable difficult time later in life? |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:46 am Post subject: |
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Assuming nothing catastrophic happens in the next while we're going to be able to spot our first Earth-sized planet in another solar system around 2011 or so. With the exponential growth of extrasolar observation we're probably going to know of thousands if not tens of thousands of Earth-like planets by then, and we'll be able to image them directly in some detail.
Here's one proposed mission and Europe has another:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrestrial_Planet_Finder
Perhaps China or India will be more involved in this in the future too. |
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manlyboy
Joined: 01 Aug 2004
Location: Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
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| Posted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:49 am Post subject: |
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| These predictions of course hinge on the assumption the US will not achieve its goal of energy independence, at least not by 2025. |
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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sun Nov 23, 2008 12:12 am Post subject: |
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| sojourner1 wrote: |
| If you're from the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, South Africa, or Canada, how would you feel if the leaders of your country told you and your people are not good enough to be adequately employed nor deserve a living wage or salary and then set you and your country men up to an miserable difficult time later in life? |
Good grief. Why do you think so many Canadians are teaching in Korea? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sun Nov 23, 2008 9:59 am Post subject: |
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| sojourner1 wrote: |
| I find it rather disturbing that the wealth and jobs went to the East when it didn't have to but the guys running America sold us out with the claim that American workers are too expensive and don't produce quality work. |
Stop listening to Biden and Obama on this one. Its not true.
And even if it were, the East is entitled to what it can contract and distribute.
I'd post links disproving this claim, but really, since you made it I think its on you to show the claim is true. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Sun Nov 23, 2008 11:37 pm Post subject: |
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| If you're from the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, South Africa, or Canada, how would you feel if the leaders of your country told you and your people are not good enough to be adequately employed nor deserve a living wage or salary and then set you and your country men up to an miserable difficult time later in life? |
Who said they haven't already done that?
Plus we have to contend with our country as being promoted as a retirement village for uber wealthy individuals. |
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asylum seeker
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Location: On your computer screen.
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| Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:22 am Post subject: |
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| sojourner1 wrote: |
If you're from the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, South Africa, or Canada, how would you feel if the leaders of your country told you and your people are not good enough to be adequately employed nor deserve a living wage or salary and then set you and your country men up to an miserable difficult time later in life? |
New Zealand has lost a lot of it's manufacturing industry to Asian countries as well. I don't think you can just blame the leaders as it's kind of inevitable that companies will make their products where it's cheapest to make them. It's fair enough that Asia should have it's share of the wealth also as demographically it's a lot bigger than the west. Western countries have to focus on what strengths they have and competing where they can. Protectionism won't bring any jobs back at this point. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:52 am Post subject: |
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| asylum seeker wrote: |
| Protectionism won't bring any jobs back at this point. |
Protectionism could do a great deal to kick start domestic employment. The question isn't if it could stimulate employment but what would be the wider costs and outcomes. |
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