Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Bemused]

I had an interesting conversation with one of my students who is an executive at Hynix. He said that he's very worried about the economy more now than in '97. None of the chaebol, with the exception of Samsung, are recruiting university graduates, which is unheard of. And, where before Hynix managers and engineers avoided having to do a 3 year tour of duty at the Hynix plant in Wuxi, China, now they are feeling lucky if they get placed in the duty rotation. He said that many of the engineers and managers that he knows are frantically studying English so that they can compete for hi-tech jobs in western countries because they really believe that no matter how many years of experience they have, their jobs are in jeopardy.

Has anyone else heard of this sort of thing?

[Nemo]

I talked to a former Korean VP of Salomon Smith Barney in Korea and he was of the opinion that the current crisis isn't nearly as bad as the IMF crisis in 1997-8.

That said, I know that many of the Korean banks and other financial institutions have not given annual bonuses and in some cases, even made pay cuts to employees across the board.

[Ya-ta Boy]

It's entirely anecdotal on my part, but it doesn't feel 'bad' here, not at all like in the winter of '97-'98. By 'bad' I mean people aren't refusing to go to foreign movies because that would be money lost to the country; people aren't turning in their gold to save the country; people aren't warning people not to push the close button on elevator doors because that teeny bit of electricity would be wasted. People are still smiling on the streets.

[IlIlNine]

[Captain Corea]

I don't think it is as bad as some are making it out to be.

[GoldMember]

The big differences are these:
97 Financial Crisis

People had substantial savings too fall back on.
Foreign investors were keen to invest in Korea, so there was a flow of capital into Korea.
World economy was still strong.

Now
Korean households are up to their eye balls in debt.
Foreign investors are fleeing Korea, so there is a flow of capital out of Korea.
World economy is weaker.

Give it time. Shipyards are busy completing current orders, BUT many future orders have been cancelled.
Western companies lay off workers as soon as their is a downturn, Korean companies are unable to do so, they lay off people once they are totally clapped out.

[Captain Corea]

[JongnoGuru]

Dave's Economic Tea Leaf Reading. I love these threads.

[GoldMember]

Legally it is difficult in Korea to lay off permanent workers. For this reason companies employ two pools of workers, temporary and permanent.
Its the temporary ones that get laid off first.

[Beej]

It's early yet. Give it time.

[sarbonn]

Personally, I don't think anybody knows how bad this crisis is going to be, or can be. Economists don't know. The people who got us into the mess are the same ones who are being asked to make predictions. They haven't a clue, yet they're doing what they always do: Guessing based on past performance, but the past is not proving to be useful in predicting the future here.

We're in uncharted territory here, and the problem is no one has a roadmap, so they're relying on hunches, yet those hunches caused entire countries to go into financial meltdown.

For all we know, it might be a blip and all might correct itself. Or it may continue to cause meltdown in unprecedented ways.

Part of the problem of a lot of claims is that there is also another element at work, and that's the "tell them all is okay so the economy turns around" factor. There are those who are investing in the economy getting better and understand that a part of that economy is based on how people feel, so they keep feeding the same positive news about the system in hopes that it will improve enough for either one of two things to happen: They make their profit and get out, or the system fixes itself. Unfortunately, people aren't exactly responding positively these days, so the wishful thinking strategy isn't working.

[hugekebab]

[Bemused]

This just off of Breitbart.com The numbers are supporting my student's anxiety over his job security.


South Korean exports fell sharply in November compared to a year earlier as the global recession began to bite, a government report showed Monday.

Exports dropped 18.3 percent compared to November 2007 to 29.26 billion dollars, the largest fall in percentage terms since December 2001, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said.

Imports fell 14.6 percent to 28.96 billion last month, resulting in a trade surplus of 297 million dollars.

"Some buyers are asking for delays, cuts or cancellation of their orders...export conditions will likely be very difficult going forward," the ministry said in a statement.

It said ship exports surged 34.7 percent year-on-year in November, but overseas shipments of all other major export items dropped by double digits.

Exports of auto parts and petrochemicals fell 30.8 percent and 36.6 percent respectively, while those for general machinery were down 24.4 percent.

The ministry, giving a regional breakdown covering the first 20 days of the month, said sales fell everywhere except in the Middle East -- where South Korea exported 30.6 percent more compared with a year earlier.

Exports to the US were down 6.2 percent during the first 20 days while those to China fell 27.8 percent. Exports to the European Union were 12.5 percent lower, while Japan imported 13.5 percent less.

South Korea's export-dominated economy is also suffering from stubbornly weak domestic demand.

The government's official 2009 growth forecast is four percent but local and international analysts see a far lower figure.

The International Monetary Fund predicts 2.0 percent and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts 2.7 percent growth.

[Yaya]

Hard to say if it's worse or better than in '97. I was here in 1997, and well, the things that skyrocketed were the ranks of the homeless; unemployment; suicide; bankruptcies and other social ills. I remember going to the U.S. and people asking me if it "was really that bad in Korea." I was like, geez.

The biggest things I see now is a tight job market and sluggish home sales. Of course, if the experts are correct, we ain't seen nothing yet as Koreans are still going out and buying stuff (maybe not as much as before).

[Unposter]

There are a couple of differences between the '97 Asian economic crisis and the current one.

The biggest difference was '97 was a regional problem. The current one started in the U.S. and has effected the entire world economy. This has huge ramifications concerning how Korea can handle the crisis.

Another difference was there was outright panic in Korea in '97. Koreans had never experienced economic problems of this magnitude before. They thought the sky was falling.

You do not see any of that panic now because Koreans have already lived through '97 and seem patient to see the otherside of the downturn. And, if you think companies weren't hiring in '97 and '98, you don't remember well. Very few college graduates found jobs and plenty of people were laidoff, probably never being able to find work at a Chaebol again.

One of the probable winners of the current crisis is Japan. The Japanese are already examining Korean companies and realestate and buying up anything that seems reasonable at 30 -50% discounts because of the value of their currency. Some American companies did this in '97 but seeing as Americans are up to their eyeballs in debt they are not going to be able to take advantage this time.

If I were a Korean, I would be learning Japanese quick if they don't already, because the Japanese are going to buy all the viable companies they can. If you don't like that sure you can look for an international company that requires English but as most of those companies are laying off workforce too - good luck!

As others have said, the economy is moving into "uncharted waters." Who knows how this is going to play itself out? We are probably going to see a massive bailout of American companies and possibly pension funds by selling bonds and cheap stocks to the Chinese - and who knows?- maybe the Japanese. Hopefully, this "re-influx" of capital back into the U.S. will right the world economy. If not, we could be looking at a whole new world.

Korea is just along for the ride...there really isn't much it can do except hope that the economy rights itself and someone starts buying their products again. In the meantime, the way the currency rate looks, it will be cheaper than ever to buy Korean. Lets hope that keeps Korea afloat.

One advantage Koreans do have is that most people have their houses paid for, rice is cheap and medical care is massively subsidized by the government (I've read that the government does not plan on raising insurance premiums and heating costs for the first time in many years - this should be a slight benefit to us compared to living in our home countries).