Korean Job Discussion Forums

[seosan08]

8 really, really scary predictions
cnn.com

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/index.html

Dow 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about the future is frightening.

We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse.

Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.

For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too.

Continued.......................
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/index.html

By Beth Kowitt, Jon Birger and Brian O'Keefe

[sojourner1]

I knew it was coming. The ultimate reason for economic system failure surrounds over use of credit, especially with the US government selling treasury notes to China and other countries. The gigs up when China doesn't want to continue purchasing unlimited amounts of treasury notes like the way they are still doing. The US government is acting like it's an unlimited free cash to just throw around on stupid shit like wars, over policing average American people just trying to live, over financing banks to lend too much to consumers, and putting CEO's on welfare. They needed to finance smart investments that lead to profitable innovative products which supports good jobs while promoting for consumers to live within their means. Debt is only good for a mortgage out for a home in your range and for investing that's highly likely to produce positive results instead of a causing dependency and abuse like an addictive drug addict. America is one credit addict and will hit bottom hard when China says, "No more, this has gone far enough." This is when shit really hits the fan.

It's too bad Obama doesn't address the single most underlying problem: out of control US debt from China while continuing Bush's debt based economic model instead of turning it around into a positive cash flow earned based system dependent on good jobs and profitable companies that innovate good products to support positive results. Many of you say Korea lacks innovation, but it's not surprising to me that Korea is doing more than America. We need an economy based on profitable companies that offer good jobs and good products made in the USA; not more debt.

[talltony4]

Interesting.

Especially that guy who said "buy commodities". I think he's right, commodity prices will go up, but he said it's because farmers and miners can't borrow money to expand production. Whereas I think it's because we have reached peak production in a lot of areas.

That's the one thing that these financial people don't seem to get, that there are limits to economic growth. Is it just so far outside their paradigm that they can't understand it?

[Cornfed]

As things get worse I wonder if necessary steps to pull us out of the sewer will be taken, like sacking all the incompetent affirmative action women and minority hires and replacing them with competent people. Or giving all the PC bullshit artists in universities and businesses their marching orders. Or rewarding intelligent people who speak out against the system instead of firing and blacklisting them. Thus far it hasn't happened. Indeed, the worse things get the more afraid people are of speaking out and losing their crappy jobs so the worse things get and so on. However, you would hope the process would reverse itself before we all starve.

[Thewhiteyalbum]

[Perceptioncheck]

^^^^ Naw, it's cuz he's totes ridics.

[Rusty Shackleford]

So you say stay in cash like assetes. The US government is basically inflating it's way out of this by printing money. Where do you think all the cash for the bail outs is coming from? Holding cash would be a silly idea.

My advice would be to slowly buy into the DOW. They may keep dropping, but you can buy more at the lower price. Then when the recovery comes, you would've had yourself a bargain.

Your predictions are well and nice, but you know as much as the next guy which even for the top guys isn't that much. Predicting doom and gloom is well and good but pretty much arbitrary.

I'm just going to arbitrarily predict a bright and rosey future. Undoubtedly in the long term I will be proved right.

[Ultimo Hombre]

DYSTOPIA OR BUST!!

[samd]

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