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brento1138
Joined: 17 Nov 2004
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Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: North Korea - My Theories on Current Events... |
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I believe that everything we see North Korea doing is absolutely 0% affected by the outside world. I believe it all has to do with inside, internal politics. Here are two examples.
The purported South Korean-led assassination attempt.
I think that Kim Jong Il truly had an attempt made on his life as the North Korean broadcasts reported. However, I think it was an inside job and they tried blaming the South as a propaganda strategy. There was probably lots of inner party turmoil building up and it was seeping out more than ever ... just before the hard, cold winter hit. The Party doesn't want any citizens knowing that there is inner turmoil going on inside of the party. That would lead to further instability. Blaming the South is a great propaganda move since it would generate more anger at South Korea, helping unite the people more, while deflecting the idea away that someone in their own country would actually try to kill the Dear Leader. Also, I believe that they found all those responsible and had them executed. If it was just one person, I'd truly be surprised... If they've only caught one person, I bet that there is a mass investigation going on.
Is he dead?
I don't think he is dead. I think if he died, we'd know about it since I think the party would split into a few factions and cause a small civil war between different ideological factions in the army. I don't think we'd see a stable North Korea at all. It would be a highly confused situation and word would spread fast that he died. Top people in the military all have different ideas. Groups of men would conspire to shoot their commanders if they disagreed with their ideas, and anarchy would build up.
The A-bomb "two-step."
Most defectors when interviewed had only good things to say about Kim Il Sung. When it comes to Kim Jong Il, they say pretty bad things. They hate the guy. His time, many of them said, would come to an end in 2000 or so. It didn't. Why? I believe it was because he had one great success: the A-bomb. Finally Kim Jong Il could hang onto power a little longer since he has the bomb card. I don't think this "dance" of co-operate then don't co-operate has anything to do with their distaste for the outside world. We see them using any little excuse they can get to co-operate or stop co-operating. They've given crazy reasons like how the South has a bad attitude, so they stop co-operating. It's a cycle. Make promises, then don't follow through. Then make the promises again. Then backstep. They bribed the USA out of lots of energy aid and South Korea out of tons of rice. That kept the country going...kept the people in high places (aka the army) happy. The A-bomb card provided them enough oil and rice to keep the people in power happy, and the army fed to a level where they wouldn't revolt. But I wonder how long this will last? I believe it's Kim Jong Il's last card. And his clock is ticking.
With this A-bomb card, what good does this bomb do when they can already destroy Seoul in 30 minutes? Well... this is where it gets interesting, I think. I believe that the officials closest to Kim have been told that if they try anything, and Kim's life ends, Kim has the power to A-bomb Pyongyang. That's right. I believe he actually has somehow held onto power by driving the fear of destroying "the world" (aka Pyongyang) if he is driven from power. I know this sounds crazy, but I think we could actually expect this from Kim Jong Il.
"If we lose, I will destroy the world."
- Kim Jong-Il
"One is pleased to see the bugs die in a fire even though one's house is burned down."
- Kim Il-Sung
I'm just wondering if there's any place on the net where people can discuss all about North Korea. I'm quite interested in the subject. I've just almost finished all 700 pages or so of "Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader" (currently on page 610) and really recommend it. A must read for anyone interested in North Korea. I've pondered travel to Pyongyang, but now since I know more about the situation there, I wouldn't dare.
Oh, and has anyone here been to North Korea or taught students from North Korea?? I know one teacher who says he has two students who recently defected from North Korea. How interesting...
Anyways, why does it interest me so much? My favorite book was George Orwell's 1984. It amazes me to this day how that society depicted in 1984 really exists today just a few kilometers north.
But I think the clock is ticking... |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003 Location: I walk along the avenue
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Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 9:54 am Post subject: |
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I'm just wondering if there's any place on the net where people can discuss all about North Korea. I'm quite interested in the subject. |
http://www.dprkstudies.org/ |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong
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Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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I recommend The Aquariums of Pyongyang. When I get a chance I'll see if I can find the book you are reading.
One of my coworkers went and she said it was a pretty good tour. Now with the boarder closed, it's not possible. If things improved, I might consider going. My father-in-law is from a city near Kaesong and fought in the Korean War. The poor guy hasn't seen most of his family in 60 years. It's quite sad on Lunar New Year to watch him bow before his ancestors. |
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brento1138
Joined: 17 Nov 2004
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Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:08 am Post subject: |
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Milwaukiedave wrote: |
I recommend The Aquariums of Pyongyang. When I get a chance I'll see if I can find the book you are reading.
One of my coworkers went and she said it was a pretty good tour. Now with the boarder closed, it's not possible. If things improved, I might consider going. My father-in-law is from a city near Kaesong and fought in the Korean War. The poor guy hasn't seen most of his family in 60 years. It's quite sad on Lunar New Year to watch him bow before his ancestors. |
Ah ha! I just started reading it today, as I just finished all 715 pages of that other book. So interested in North Korea now... wanna visit Pyeongyang just to see it... |
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