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Actual Risk to Seoulites from Second Korean War
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marlow



Joined: 06 Feb 2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 2:44 am    Post subject: Actual Risk to Seoulites from Second Korean War Reply with quote

If North Korea actually started bombarding Seoul, how serious would it be? It's not like Seoul doesn't have thousands of ready made bunkers in the form of subway stations and tunnels as well as underground parking garages.

Just wondering if the bombardment would be strong enough or fast enough to do anything serious before it was all brought to an end by American airpower.

I'm sure the attack would come during the middle of a work/school day, though, so that would **** things up. Maybe Koreans should do more defence drills.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

uh.. yeah. It'd be serious.
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Yesterday



Joined: 15 Aug 2003
Location: Land of the Morning DongChim (Kancho)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:31 am    Post subject: Re: Actual Risk to Seoulites from Second Korean War Reply with quote

marlow wrote:

I'm sure the attack would come during the middle of a work/school day, though, so that would **** things up. Maybe Koreans should do more defence drills.


The attack would be planned by the north to be on the same day as a defence drill - then everyone would just ignore it like they usually do.. or at 4 am whilst everyone is sleeping...

(the norths not that stupid)

p.s. - too late to start worrying now - you came here to live/work in a country that is officially still at war.. why start worrying now?
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Xuanzang



Joined: 10 Apr 2007
Location: Sadang

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I take it back. Nukes - Seoul would be the next Nagasaki or Hiroshima. The article said fierce battles with the DRPK planes? It`d probably be the same as with Saddam airforce. A good old fashion flogging.

Last edited by Xuanzang on Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:46 am; edited 1 time in total
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weatherman



Joined: 14 Jan 2003
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well there is this write up I remembered reading some time ago.

http://www.rjkoehler.com/2004/11/19/korean-peninsula-nuke-scenarios-seoul-strike-could-kill-125-million/

Not a pleasent thing to think about
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man_of_words



Joined: 18 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:47 am    Post subject: It could be the worst thing you've ever lived through Reply with quote

They have a lot of fire power... more military weapons than you think but from what I understand it's all Soviet era weaponry and they have virtually no night time capabilities so they would probably start early in the morning and they would have to essentially win a one day offensive. When night falls it would be, for all practical purposes, a one way pummel. US and South Korea would demolish every military target possible and Kim Jon Il would no longer be in power.
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Cohiba



Joined: 01 Feb 2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haha, well we wouldn't be nuked. They would nuke Japan first. We
would be the proud recipients of rocket and missile warheads full of
VX nerve gas. NK has freakin' tonnes of the stuff. This would result
in pretty close to 100% fatalities within about 50-100Km of the border.
Then, the NK army, emaciated as they are, would march unopposed
into a dead Korea. However, buildings and infrastructure would be
intact. They would then mop up any resistance south of Gyungi-Do.
Which wouldn't be much. I'm not sure what they would do with us
mighty whities. The global outrage would be such that killing us on
a piecemeal basis would pale in comparison. So don't expect the
dead members of your embassy to do to much. Happy New Year!
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blurgalurgalurga



Joined: 18 Oct 2007

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good link there, weatherman...
My armchair general's two cents:
It's possible that the north wouldn't actually be able to hit central Seoul (or Japan) with a big nuke. They'd have to drop it from a plane, I think, as their nuclear devices aren't small enough to put on one of their missiles. Yet. Penetrating the air defense grid would likely fail.

I think.

Or, they could maybe trundle a fat boy or two across the border through one of their so-far undetected tunnels, which are unfortunately quite likely to exist.

However, even with nukes aside; they do have a lot of missles that could hit Seoul, and elsewhere on the penninsula. The ROK and US airforce could shoot down many. Others would hit stuff. The big question is, what kind of warheads would they be carrying? The possibility of chemical or biological attack should be acknowleged.

Artillery probably wouldn't be able to hit downtown, as far as I know. Ujeongbu however could be, I've heard.

They're pretty dug in up there too, so there's no magic air campaign that's going to take them out quickly. They're honeycombed into the mountains and have more tunnels than they do people to put in them. Choosing which underground complexes to hit would be, well, hit and miss.

So, in conclusion, my highly valuable advice to all concerned parties is, do not start a war with the North. And hey, the Wicked Kim of the North--I know you're reading this--don't attack the South. It'd be a lose, lose, lose proposition.

And sure, the North would get crushed eventually, maybe even relatively quickly, but the South would get horrifically smoked as well. Also China would be jumpy about the whole scene too, and who knows what could happen there.

And my advice to Lee Myung-Bak, who is also undoubtedly reading this: appeasement is painful, but relatively speaking, a much better option than being belicose. Nobody knows how crazy those guys up there really are.
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Cohiba



Joined: 01 Feb 2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, I should have added that they would use artillery shells full
of VX for the shorter ranges of 40 or so kilometers to Seoul. Although
the longer range projectiles would be fired first so that the gas had
dissipated before contact with forward elements of resistance. The
initial thrust would be elite troops with chemical and biological equipment.
They could then then clear the millions of mines at the DMZ while the
US was still reacting to massive clouds of deadly VX.
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Xuanzang



Joined: 10 Apr 2007
Location: Sadang

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Leader would be smart to put a nuke onto a ship and dock it in Busan. Then do his chemical warfare mumbo jumbo. Might as well take out the area Daddy could never reach in 1950.
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Cohiba



Joined: 01 Feb 2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Xuanzang wrote:
Dear Leader would be smart to put a nuke onto a ship and dock it in Busan. Then do his chemical warfare mumbo jumbo. Might as well take out the area Daddy could never reach in 1950.


Haha, OK by me, as long as they don't blow up Wolfhound so I can drink
pints of ale and watch it on CNN.
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OneWayTraffic



Joined: 14 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cohiba wrote:
Actually, I should have added that they would use artillery shells full
of VX for the shorter ranges of 40 or so kilometers to Seoul. Although
the longer range projectiles would be fired first so that the gas had
dissipated before contact with forward elements of resistance. The
initial thrust would be elite troops with chemical and biological equipment.
They could then then clear the millions of mines at the DMZ while the
US was still reacting to massive clouds of deadly VX.


As I understand it, US policy is to respond to any weapon of mass destruction with nukes. And Obama would too, at least I wouldn't bet the house against it.

North Korea's conventional weapons are no match for the stuff that the South and the USA have obviously. There's a 30 year gap in quality at least. And I have serious doubts about the readiness of their stuff too. A nation that can't feed it's citizens is bound to have serious problems maintaining it's equipment. I'd bet that a lot of their strength is paper only.

Still a lot of people in Seoul would die for sure.
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Cohiba



Joined: 01 Feb 2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OneWayTraffic wrote:


As I understand it, US policy is to respond to any weapon of mass destruction with nukes. And Obama would too, at least I wouldn't bet the house against it.

North Korea's conventional weapons are no match for the stuff that the South and the USA have obviously. There's a 30 year gap in quality at least. And I have serious doubts about the readiness of their stuff too. A nation that can't feed it's citizens is bound to have serious problems maintaining it's equipment. I'd bet that a lot of their strength is paper only.

Still a lot of people in Seoul would die for sure.


NK Korea is one of the major proliferaters of missile and nerve gas
technologies on the planet. Ships are constantly being boarded and
searched with just the hint they have a NK connection. Why do you
think old Kim Jong-Il is still in power? It is because ALL the resources
of the country go to the the very few elite and the military. Of course
their conventional weapons are obsolete. That is why they have a
massive stockpile of very nasty, and easily weaponisable, nerve gases.
If the south is choking on nerve gas, all it takes is troops with assault
rifles and 30 year old tanks to overrun the place.
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Xuanzang



Joined: 10 Apr 2007
Location: Sadang

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guess the only thing you`ll be drinking at Wolfhounds is your own blood if Kimmie is going to do chemical weapons.
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RACETRAITOR



Joined: 24 Oct 2005
Location: Seoul, South Korea

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a hard time taking the North Korean military seriously. They'd probably mess it up somehow, like they did the time their sub washed up on the eastern shore.
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