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jt24jess
Joined: 08 Dec 2007
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 Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:12 pm Post subject: US/KRW exchange rate forecast |
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Does anyone know what will happen with exchange rate? I'm not much an economist, so I'm not sure of all the factors that go into affecting it. However I do know US is an a severe depression right now and that definitely affects it. I THInk maybe the korean economy isnt doin so great either but i dont know much about it. I just want to know if it will be the same all year or if there's any hope for the future. Any insight is greatly appreciated!
Thanks,
Jessica |
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antoniothegreat
Joined: 28 Aug 2005
Location: Yangpyeong
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| Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:16 pm Post subject: |
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| a little birdy told me that citibank expects rates to rise until they are at 1750/dollar. but that was about a month ago and it has levelled off. not sure if there is another crash coming or it's not as bad as it seems. |
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Caro wack
Joined: 13 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:25 pm Post subject: |
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Depression? You obviously didn't major in Economics. During
the real Depression (1929-1936) unemployment in US hit
25%. It's about 7% now. |
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Caro wack
Joined: 13 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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Depression? You obviously didn't major in Economics. During
the real Depression (1929-1936) unemployment in US hit
25%. It's about 7% now. |
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Caro wack
Joined: 13 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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Depression? You obviously didn't major in Economics. During
the real Depression (1929-1936) unemployment in US hit
25%. It's about 7% now. |
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jt24jess
Joined: 08 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:43 pm Post subject: replies |
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thanks antonio for the input. 
caro wack (wack does seem appropriate) - you're right, i didnt major in economics. but a depression isnt only characterized by the unemployment rate. there a 10s of thousands of layoffs daily (and that rate is only accelerating), the dollar is weak, companies are going out of business, major companies are having to ask for bail out money, and there are many markets that are stagnant right now (ex: car industry, real estate, investments...i could keep going). and the mentality you seem to have (that this isnt going to become become a real depression) is exactly the same mentality they had in the late 20s (right before the economy crashed...like its kinda doing right now). but thanks for your input on my ORIGINAL question, whether or not the KOREAN WON will appreciate in the future.
if anyone else can give me some input on the exchange rate that would be much appreciated. thanks!! |
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English Matt
Joined: 12 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:53 pm Post subject: Re: replies |
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| jt24jess wrote: |
thanks antonio for the input.
caro wack (wack does seem appropriate) - you're right, i didnt major in economics. but a depression isnt only characterized by the unemployment rate. there a 10s of thousands of layoffs daily (and that rate is only accelerating), the dollar is weak, companies are going out of business, major companies are having to ask for bail out money, and there are many markets that are stagnant right now (ex: car industry, real estate, investments...i could keep going). and the mentality you seem to have (that this isnt going to become become a real depression) is exactly the same mentality they had in the late 20s (right before the economy crashed...like its kinda doing right now). but thanks for your input on my ORIGINAL question, whether or not the KOREAN WON will appreciate in the future.
if anyone else can give me some input on the exchange rate that would be much appreciated. thanks!! |
I read somewhere recently that predicting where currencies are going to go in the future is like flipping a coin....particularly now considering the uncharted economic waters the entire world is in. I think it's impossible for anybody (not least on here) to predict what will happen. And the thing is, the Korean Won could fall against some currencies and rise against others. That has happened just recently with the Won's strength against the US dollar declining but at the same time strengthening against the Pound Sterling (although there's been a reversal of fortune against the � in the past few days).
However at least Korea actually still makes stuff and doesn't rely on the service and financial sectors as much as did / does the UK / USA et al.
Despite what I just said, what I have read over the past few months seems to indicate that the Won has not bottomed out against the US dollar yet (although most do not think it has much further to fall) and that it should strengthen from it's current position by the end of 2009. It depends on a whole raft of factors, not the least of which will be the markets reaction to the new economic team that was appointed in Korea just recently to take charge of this mess and try to avert a disaster. |
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madoka
Joined: 27 Mar 2008
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| Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:57 pm Post subject: |
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FYI, just today Obama said that we haven't been in a recession this deep since the Great Depression.
Jess, to answer your question: no one knows how the won will do. If experts don't know, then certainly the peanut gallery on Dave's does not know. Most peole hope/expect it to bounce back. Since Korea is export driven, they can try to sell their products to other markets. Unfortunately, the U.S. is one of their biggest markets and people aren't buying as much as they used to. I think the popular sentiment is that the won maybe depressed for the next year or two. Most teachers hope to ride it out and not transfer their money until they have to. Hope that helps.
BTW, if you are going to participate on Dave's, it helps to grow a thick skin. There are a lot of angry nutjobs on here who are given to juvenile expressions of rage. |
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GwangjuParents
Joined: 31 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:03 am Post subject: |
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www.greaterfool.ca
If you're a Canadian, it ain't looking pretty back home. |
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jt24jess
Joined: 08 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:06 am Post subject: thanks |
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thanks english matt and madoka.^^
and yes, i do know that there are alot of jackasses on this website that just seem to browse all the topics and input only snarky, asshole comments. i dont post alot on here because of this. although i do have a thicker skin, i am korean so my 'redness' does come out once in awhile. especially if people are gonna write jerky comments on here where they can hide behind their computer screen.
but thanks again for your reply. a friend told me the US is taking out all their investments in SK so we'll see what happens. |
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runthegauntlet
Joined: 02 Dec 2007
Location: the southlands.
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| Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 1:29 am Post subject: |
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No one knows what the won will do. If they did, they could make lots of money. From most things I've read, it's "expected" that things will remain the same(read: bad) or deteriorate slightly until the fourth quarter of '09, where there is a bit of hope of a rebound. Again, it's a toss up.
My grandfather was 13 when the Great Depression hit and he recently told me that he thinks this will turn into another one of those. I argued against but he said the conditions felt similar and the attitudes were the same. No one thought it would happen and then, bam. Chaos. And let's not forget that it pretty much took a world war to bring the U.S. out of that one.
Obviously, we're all hoping the won will improve. I just started another contract and am hoping that by the time I'm done it'll have rebounded a bit. But I'm not betting the farm that it does. |
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GwangjuParents
Joined: 31 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:30 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| I argued against but he said the conditions felt similar and the attitudes were the same. No one thought it would happen and then, bam. Chaos. And let's not forget that it pretty much took a world war to bring the U.S. out of that one. |
Conditions this time are much worse.
People back in "olden days" people didn't have mega mortgage and credit card debt like they do now... |
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English Matt
Joined: 12 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:57 am Post subject: |
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| runthegauntlet wrote: |
No one knows what the won will do. If they did, they could make lots of money. From most things I've read, it's "expected" that things will remain the same(read: bad) or deteriorate slightly until the fourth quarter of '09, where there is a bit of hope of a rebound. Again, it's a toss up.
My grandfather was 13 when the Great Depression hit and he recently told me that he thinks this will turn into another one of those. I argued against but he said the conditions felt similar and the attitudes were the same. No one thought it would happen and then, bam. Chaos. And let's not forget that it pretty much took a world war to bring the U.S. out of that one.
Obviously, we're all hoping the won will improve. I just started another contract and am hoping that by the time I'm done it'll have rebounded a bit. But I'm not betting the farm that it does. |
From what I can gather it appears that we may well already be in a 'depression' of sorts, however it's of a very different character to the last. In this instance global trade has fallen to the point where several countries, such as Japan, Iceland and Ireland can all be said to already be in a 'depression'. However, unemployment levels are not expected to reach such gargantuan heights as last time around (at least not in the G6) due to the unprecedented level of public intervention in capital markets. The US government is spending more money as a percentage of it's GDP since the Second World War (when Fed spending was much higher than the 1930s, which was during the height of the Great Depression).
Nobody can really know, as it seems nobody (even world leaders and economists) really understand exactly what is happening to the global economy. But, it looks like we are in for a prolonged 'near-depression' as it's been referred to by some. Essentially the world economy is not going to recoup the losses it has endured over the past year for maybe a decade....the shrinkage in global economies will continue to contract into the end of this year, and thereafter there will be little to no growth. We could enter a period of economic stagnation across the world, which will not end until the banking and economic paradigm that the world operates within is re-engineered from the inside out. Some people think this could take more than a decade. Others are more hopeful that world leaders can coordinate their activities better this year and reduce the length of this period....or, in the best case scenario, avert it all together and bring the global economy back into positive growth by the end of 2010.
But I guess there will always be demand for English teachers in Korea....so we could all spend the next 10 years here. Oh, what joy! |
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No_hite_pls
Joined: 05 Mar 2007
Location: Don't hate me because I'm right
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| Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 8:32 am Post subject: |
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| English Matt wrote: |
| runthegauntlet wrote: |
No one knows what the won will do. If they did, they could make lots of money. From most things I've read, it's "expected" that things will remain the same(read: bad) or deteriorate slightly until the fourth quarter of '09, where there is a bit of hope of a rebound. Again, it's a toss up.
My grandfather was 13 when the Great Depression hit and he recently told me that he thinks this will turn into another one of those. I argued against but he said the conditions felt similar and the attitudes were the same. No one thought it would happen and then, bam. Chaos. And let's not forget that it pretty much took a world war to bring the U.S. out of that one.
Obviously, we're all hoping the won will improve. I just started another contract and am hoping that by the time I'm done it'll have rebounded a bit. But I'm not betting the farm that it does. |
From what I can gather it appears that we may well already be in a 'depression' of sorts, however it's of a very different character to the last. In this instance global trade has fallen to the point where several countries, such as Japan, Iceland and Ireland can all be said to already be in a 'depression'. However, unemployment levels are not expected to reach such gargantuan heights as last time around (at least not in the G6) due to the unprecedented level of public intervention in capital markets. The US government is spending more money as a percentage of it's GDP since the Second World War (when Fed spending was much higher than the 1930s, which was during the height of the Great Depression).
Nobody can really know, as it seems nobody (even world leaders and economists) really understand exactly what is happening to the global economy. But, it looks like we are in for a prolonged 'near-depression' as it's been referred to by some. Essentially the world economy is not going to recoup the losses it has endured over the past year for maybe a decade....the shrinkage in global economies will continue to contract into the end of this year, and thereafter there will be little to no growth. We could enter a period of economic stagnation across the world, which will not end until the banking and economic paradigm that the world operates within is re-engineered from the inside out. Some people think this could take more than a decade. Others are more hopeful that world leaders can coordinate their activities better this year and reduce the length of this period....or, in the best case scenario, avert it all together and bring the global economy back into positive growth by the end of 2010.
But I guess there will always be demand for English teachers in Korea....so we could all spend the next 10 years here. Oh, what joy! |
Good post, except for the part about staying in Korea. I am not so sure that is a great idea. |
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Tigerstyleone
Joined: 01 Feb 2009
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| Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 8:37 am Post subject: |
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Everyone is an expert economist these days.
So many people think the won is going to bounce back in a few months and everything will be fine.
I don't know what's going to happen.
All I know is when I came here 2 million won was like 2 thousand usd.
now its more like 1,400 usd.... and I didn't send a lot of money home. I worked my ass off teaching 6 days a week 8 classes a day to save 15 million won, and now its only worth 10 thousand usd.
It really sucks. |
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