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Obama: "...that doesn't mean I'm a sap."

 
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 4:13 pm    Post subject: Obama: "...that doesn't mean I'm a sap." Reply with quote

Here's a really good article about how Obama thinks.

"Here's the bottom line," he said. "We will do what works. It is going to take time to lay out every aspect of this plan, and there are going to be certain aspects of any plan... which will require reevaluation and... some experimentation -- [a sense that] if that doesn't work, then you do something else."...

In such comments, and his remarks about his willingness to work with or without Republican support in Congress, Obama may be revealing much about his conception of leadership. He was insistent that a president's responsibility is to resist the daily (if not hourly) scorekeeping of the modern political and media system and keep his eye on the horizon. "My job is to help the country take the long view," he said. Obama portrayed himself as willing to consider a broad range of perspectives for responding to the country's daunting problems -- "We're going to... work with anybody who wants to work with us constructively," he said at one point -- and open to adjusting his own course to bring others along or simply to respond to evidence that his ideas aren't working. But repeatedly he declared that no one should interpret that to mean he lacks any clarity about his goals: "My consistent bottom line is: How do we make sure that the American people can work, have a decent income, look after their kids and we can grow the economy." Any compromises or course corrections, he argued, must serve those overriding priorities.


http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/nj_20090214_5045.php

I have to say that I like this. It is almost exactly what FDR said in 1932:

It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.

At another time: One thing is sure. We have to do something. We have to do the best we know how at the moment... If it doesn't turn out right, we can modify it as we go along.


Some other fun FDR quotes:

Competition has been shown to be useful up to a certain point and no further, but cooperation, which is the thing we must strive for today, begins where competition leaves off.

It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

If we can boondoggle ourselves out of this depression, that word is going to be enshrined in the hearts of the American people for years to come.

Don't forget what I discovered--that over ninety percent of all national deficits from 1921 to 1939 were caused by payments for past, present, and future wars.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How do you measure whether a policy is working or not?

If you're taking the long-view, how long should you stick with the policy and at what point should you give up on a policy?

Truly I'm glad the days of right-wing ideology are behind us, but I am curious what this pragmatism really means, and whether there is some guiding ideology behind it at all (I hope there is some).
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ManintheMiddle



Joined: 20 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-Ta Boy speculated:

Quote:
It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.


Agreed, but how will we really know if it succeeds or fails since the economy might push along in spite of the stimulus bill, which any clear-eyed economist will tell you.

The fact that Obama did not insist on a bipartisan approach by his own party leaders belies his campaign pledge. Republicans were not only shut out of the closed room proceedings but given only a quarter of the time that Pelosi and Reid promised them to review the final bill before passage.

I'm beginning to think that Obama has more of the dirty Chicago politician in him than I would care to admit at this stage. We shall have to wait and see but so far I'm not impressed. Lincoln he is not.
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Jeff's Cigarettes



Joined: 27 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, I have to say that ole Jugears is off to a brilliant start. The porkulas bill shows that he knows his constituents well. No one EVER moved out of poverty as long as the gubmint checks arrived on time. Congratulations!
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Rusty Shackleford



Joined: 08 May 2008

PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 3:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The majority of the spending is to take place in 2010 and 2011. The economy will probably be recovering on it's own by then anyway, just in time for the dems to step in and claim the credit.

It's easy to say "We have to do something", but that something could just as easily make the situation worse. The most shameful part is that the so called stimulus bill has nothing to do with economics (in fact as many economists disagree with it as support it), it is purely politically motivated with no thought to the underlying systemic problems in the economy.

The Japanese suffered a lost decade from their own stimulus packages. The US is probably going to unleash a lost 3 or 4 decades on the whole world and for what?
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 6:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rusty Shackleford wrote:
The majority of the spending is to take place in 2010 and 2011. The economy will probably be recovering on it's own by then anyway, just in time for the dems to step in and claim the credit.

It's easy to say "We have to do something", but that something could just as easily make the situation worse. The most shameful part is that the so called stimulus bill has nothing to do with economics (in fact as many economists disagree with it as support it), it is purely politically motivated with no thought to the underlying systemic problems in the economy.

The Japanese suffered a lost decade from their own stimulus packages. The US is probably going to unleash a lost 3 or 4 decades on the whole world and for what?

Actually the pork barrel spending (combined with keeping losses and details of bad loans undisclosed from the public), while wasteful, was probably the only thing that saved Japan from all out collapse at the time. The burst Japanese bubble was the biggest financial collapse of all time by a fair margin...
True it took a decade for the economy to start growing again (and the ongoing effects of that bubble, even today, are part of why Japan is more vulnerable than the US or Europe), but it achieved its aims of keeping society intact and people employed. Japanese banks have never really recovered their reputation though, so the economy has always been propped up by exports and gov't spending.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
How do you measure whether a policy is working or not?


Quote:
but how will we really know if it succeeds or fails


This is really kind of an odd question. How do we know at any time if any policy has worked or not? Elements of the public, along with elected representatives make that determination and begin pressing for a change.

What I take Obama's statement (copied directly from FDR) to mean is that we now have an activist president rather than a president with the other view that has dominated for the last 3 decades.
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Rusty Shackleford



Joined: 08 May 2008

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Quote:
How do you measure whether a policy is working or not?


Quote:
but how will we really know if it succeeds or fails


This is really kind of an odd question. How do we know at any time if any policy has worked or not? Elements of the public, along with elected representatives make that determination and begin pressing for a change.

What I take Obama's statement (copied directly from FDR) to mean is that we now have an activist president rather than a president with the other view that has dominated for the last 3 decades.


So you are trying to say that every President since Nixon has had a "hands-off" approach to the economy, and the peoples' lives in general? That is a larf.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Quote:
How do you measure whether a policy is working or not?


Quote:
but how will we really know if it succeeds or fails


This is really kind of an odd question. How do we know at any time if any policy has worked or not? Elements of the public, along with elected representatives make that determination and begin pressing for a change.

What I take Obama's statement (copied directly from FDR) to mean is that we now have an activist president rather than a president with the other view that has dominated for the last 3 decades.


Oh, hogwash. It means you don't have any barometer for measuring his success. Even Obama has one:

Obama wrote:
My initial measure of success is creating or saving 4 million jobs


Obama is smart enough not to declare a timeframe, so I consider the timeframe four years, his term of office.

By the way, between TARP and the stimulus we'll be spending $1.6 trillion. That's $400,000 per job.

http://forum.alsacreations.com/upload/2043-fail-camera.jpg
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, pshaw!

People are running around in a panic saying already that the Stimulus Bill has failed and it hasn't even been signed yet. (Well, maybe it has--it's 6:30 am here in Korea.) Paul Krugman was on last night saying the stimulus parts were good--but too small--but that the tax cuts were either 'eh' or 'bad'.

Anyway, since last September 'they' have been saying things will get worse before they improve so I'm expecting a herd of talking heads who never wanted a stimulus bill of any kind in the first place to spew their negativity every 10 seconds or so.

One of Obama's biggest obstacles is that just about the whole public has been raised on TV where every plot line is resolved within the hour. People who are the nervous types are warned when they invest not to watch the market everyday. I think that's wise advice for everyone in this kind of situation.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Oh, pshaw!


ROFL
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very Happy

I've long contended that the vulgarization of American popular culture has created a virtual famine of colorful negative expressions that are useful and less boring than simply 'bs' this and 'bs' that. My grandparents could say things like, "Hogwash, you dolt!" or "Pshaw, you dunderhead!" and not blush. Our language is the poorer for the loss.

So, "Gadzooks, you nincompoop! Obama's doing a bang-up job so far."
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agentX



Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Quote:
How do you measure whether a policy is working or not?


Quote:
but how will we really know if it succeeds or fails


This is really kind of an odd question. How do we know at any time if any policy has worked or not? Elements of the public, along with elected representatives make that determination and begin pressing for a change.

What I take Obama's statement (copied directly from FDR) to mean is that we now have an activist president rather than a president with the other view that has dominated for the last 3 decades.


Oh, hogwash. It means you don't have any barometer for measuring his success. Even Obama has one:

Obama wrote:
My initial measure of success is creating or saving 4 million jobs


Obama is smart enough not to declare a timeframe, so I consider the timeframe four years, his term of office.

By the way, between TARP and the stimulus we'll be spending $1.6 trillion. That's $400,000 per job. camera.jpg

Exactly.

If there are 4 million more people out of work by 2011, then we can be sure this current stimulus package didn't do what was advertised. That synopsis only applies if there isn't another major war, major terrorist attack, major natural disaster (like an Eastern Seaboard tsunami), major oil price jump, major banking sector collapse, crushed Ponzi scheme, and so on and so forth.

The key is to get the american voting public to see success or failure in the lens the Obama admin wants them to see it, rather than how the FNC/RNC crowd wants them to see it. This package is as much a psy-ops gig as it is a financial injection. If people think they're doing better then they'll spend more, but if they think they're doing worse then they'll spend less.

I heard guillotine sales have gone up lately...
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
If there are 4 million more people out of work by 2011, then we can be sure this current stimulus package didn't do what was advertised.


I agree with the rest of the post, except for that sentence. Obama has to claim that without the stimulus there would have been 4 million MORE jobs lost than at the moment of speaking. So even if there are 8 million more jobs lost, he needs to say that without the stimulus it would have been 12 million.

The rest of the post is correct. A major goal of the stimulus is to convince people that there is a future better than scrounging food for the kids out of garbage dumps. Too much time is spent arguing over which economist is right and ignoring the psychological impact of leadership. In addition, it wouldn't hurt to think about how much of the negative talk is self-fulfilling prophecy.
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ontheway



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Obama has to claim that without the stimulus there would have been 4 million MORE jobs lost than at the moment of speaking. So even if there are 8 million more jobs lost, he needs to say that without the stimulus it would have been 12 million.



In otherwords, Obama should just lie.


The fact is, Obama is either a sap or an evil fascist-socialist for following the Ponzi economists.


Remember this proven truth:

In a free market the unemployment rate for everyone except those who have chosen not to work is always zero.


Unemployment is caused by government. It is a product of socialism and Ponzi economics.
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