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Holy Exchange Rate Batman! Dollar - Won Exchange
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asalchert



Joined: 12 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:57 am    Post subject: Holy Exchange Rate Batman! Dollar - Won Exchange Reply with quote

Hello everyone!

I'm a soon to be ESL teacher over in S.Korea (starting in March). The last two months I've been up and down with the exchange rate - as I'm sure many of you U.S. teachers have too - what a friggin nightmare - this last week it soared right back up to 1500's!

I've managed to save up enough cash to pay my cc bills for the next few months, but come June I have to start sending money back to the U.S.

Any thoughts on this? This is crazy...I'm hoping some sort of miracle will happen before I end up having to file for bankruptcy. I"m really excited to teach in S.K. and can't wait for the experience it will bring - but now I'm wondering if I can even afford it!!!!
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

South Korea has an export-based economy. Until the world starts to recover and starts buying Korean-made products again, don't expect the Won to recover. In '98 the Won fell to W2,000 to the dollar, so there is that possibility of it happening again.

People here can generally save about 1/2 of their income, which amounts to about W1,000,000 a month. Many save less than that because of their lifestyle choices.

If you budget and are capable of sticking to the budget, will W1 million allow you to meet your financial obligations? Do your math homework and check what effect the falling value of the Won will have at various exchange rates. This is not the time to cross your fingers and hope for the best.
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asalchert



Joined: 12 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well - if you can save 1,000,000/mth - and I'm used to being on a tight budget, so that's nothing new to me - and my at home monthly expenses are going to be $500/mth - so, I guess, worse case scenario - W2,000 to the dollar - happens, I'm still making ends meet.
But damn - so much for paying off huge chunks of debt. Though, here in the U.S. I wasn't making any headway anyway in my current job - and the job market isn't exactly pretty right now for me to go in any other direction...

Thanks Ya-ta though for the reality check Smile I need some good solid perspective. Optimism won't pay my student loan!
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Omkara



Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Location: USA

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone find any resources for projections?

My uneducated guess is that we'll see a mild improvement by summer. But this is based only on superstition and vasoline.

Is there any solid evidence that it will get worse by the summer?
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berrieh



Joined: 10 Feb 2009

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The fall projections from "reliable" sources had it back between 1000W-1200W to the U.S. dollar in February, which clearly isn't happening.

I think "reliable" economic information during a global economic meltdown is a bit hard to find.

Things will get worse until they start to get better. Personally, I have a gut feeling it will stabilize around 1200W/$ by August and climbing slowly after that. I've read projections in every direction, but base that theory upon a dream I had... So, I wouldn't make actual financial choices based upon it! Wink
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cedarseoul



Joined: 16 Feb 2008
Location: nowon-gu

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no more reason to assume the won will drop to 2000/1 this year than to assume it will rise to 950 again. Furthermore it is extremely unlikely that the Korean government will allow the currency to fall that far - they will almost certainly stage another FOREX intervention, along with other fiscal stimuli, before that happens.
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berrieh



Joined: 10 Feb 2009

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cedarseoul wrote:
There is no more reason to assume the won will drop to 2000/1 this year than to assume it will rise to 950 again. Furthermore it is extremely unlikely that the Korean government will allow the currency to fall that far - they will almost certainly stage another FOREX intervention, along with other fiscal stimuli, before that happens.


Oh, I agree. But I'm a "plan for the worst" sort when budgeting. It's no problem to wind up with more money than you expected; it's quite a big problem to wind up with less than you need.
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cedarseoul



Joined: 16 Feb 2008
Location: nowon-gu

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

berrieh wrote:
cedarseoul wrote:
There is no more reason to assume the won will drop to 2000/1 this year than to assume it will rise to 950 again. Furthermore it is extremely unlikely that the Korean government will allow the currency to fall that far - they will almost certainly stage another FOREX intervention, along with other fiscal stimuli, before that happens.


Oh, I agree. But I'm a "plan for the worst" sort when budgeting. It's no problem to wind up with more money than you expected; it's quite a big problem to wind up with less than you need.


Certainly agree with you there; I'm still trying to decide, myself, whether to re-up for a third year or bow out this summer...
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Real Reality



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Won plunges below 1,500, hits 3-month low
By Lee Ho-jeong, JoongAng Daily (February 21, 2009)
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2901336
Quote:
The economic research division at Korea Development Bank released a study predicting the Korean won will depreciate to 1,550 won due to the mounting financial crisis.

South Korean won nears 11-year low
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C02%5C21%5Cstory_21-2-2009_pg5_29

South Korean Won Predictions and Volatility Data
1 US dollar to South Korean won in 3 months:
Low: 1344 and High: 1980
Statistically: a 95 per cent probability that the exchange will lie within given boundaries at the end of period (in this case 3 months).
http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-krw.html

World's Weakest Currencies
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/11/1105_weakest_currencies/9.htm

South Koreans reliving nightmare of last financial crisis
By Martin Fackler, IHT (October 24, 2008)
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/24/business/24won.php
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weatherman



Joined: 14 Jan 2003
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see the won getting much worse. It might drop a bit more, but what won't happen is a recovery back to the good old days, (or back to the really good old days.) I'm thinking 1250 by the end of the year give or take 10 percent.
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Zulethe



Joined: 04 Jul 2008

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeaaaah...another won thread...bump bump bump.!!!
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Jammer113



Joined: 13 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I personally suggest to the op that if you come to Korea, keep an exit strategy. You need at least 1000 dollars in cash outside of your credit cards on hand at any given time. You don't want to be scraping by in August if the won crashes to 2500.

You're coming to a foreign country, and it's inherently risky. What if, in August, you get a new manager who is severely abusive? At that point, you'll need to leave, but you can't just pick up and find another job without cash on hand to get a new visa. Also, if you need to get new paperwork such as CRC's, it could take weeks.

Maybe your exit strategy is relying on family if you have an emergency, but just keep in mind that if you're extremely worried about money, it might just be too risky to come to Korea right now.
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bobbybigfoot



Joined: 05 May 2007
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jammer113 wrote:
You don't want to be scraping by in August if the won crashes to 2500.


Yes, and the polar ice caps may all melt and sea levels will rise 180 feet!

The sky is falling!
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asalchert



Joined: 12 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow - well I guess I asked for some opinions and I got 'em.

I'm def. with the non-sky falling people, but I'm also aware of the risk that I may end up in financial ruin, if the sky DOES in fact fall.

I'm 30 years old and have been around a bit - so, I know that playing it safe is just plain boring ...at least for me. I know a lot of people that refuse to do anything but take the safe, highly travelled road of life, and while I respect their loyalty to the solid safe route - that just doesn't really do anything for me...and since I'm not looking for a 2.5 bedroom home in the 'burbs with 2.5 kids and a .5 husband, I think taking a risk is probably not the end of the world.

Besides, being that I'm taking a risk in liquidating my life and traveling the world teaching (and hopefully writing too!) for the next few years, means taking risks financially too. No interesting person in history, 'played it safe'.

So - here I come. I've got some $$ cushion, but it's still a risk. If I go broke, life will not end - I'm sure of that. I will say a short prayer that things will go well, but if not, chalk it up as experience and start anew.

That's why we are all doing this right? For the experience, travel and teaching!
Not the money - the money is just a bonus...but I'm kinda strange that way - I'm alright with being poor. As long as I have a place to sleep Smile

Thanks for all the tips!
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Tobias



Joined: 02 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

asalchert wrote:
.
...I'm hoping some sort of miracle will happen before I end up having to file for bankruptcy. I"m really excited to teach in S.K. and can't wait for the experience it will bring - but now I'm wondering if I can even afford it!!!!


Poor guy.

The sweepstakes van ain't comin'. No miracles are in store for Mother America in the short term.
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