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Population increase or decrease in economic recession?

 
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tfunk



Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Location: Dublin, Ireland

PostPosted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 6:28 pm    Post subject: Population increase or decrease in economic recession? Reply with quote

It makes sense that people would have less babies during a recession/depression. I'm retiring in about 30 years. If there's a population decrease in the 30 - 35 year old age bracket then society will be less able to support me. I guess I should start saving.
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RJjr



Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Location: Turning on a Lamp

PostPosted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If government budgets get so strapped that welfare and food stamps are cut and people have to pay for their own kids, they'll stop having so many.

But the big X factor on the population will be war. With the economies getting bad and governments getting replaced by new ones, it increases the chances of armed conflict. With the way agriculture has become more and more commercialized and some countries dependent on other countries for food imports, the food supply chain is fragile for a lot of people, when you think about it. The destruction of railways and the sinking of ships would cause major problems for millions. A lot of ships just wouldn't sail at all because the danger just wouldn't be worth it and insurance companies wouldn't insure the ship nor the freight.
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zeldalee13



Joined: 08 Nov 2008
Location: Seoul, South Korea

PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two reasons birth rates will increase in the west:

Funny- Increasing cost of outside entertainment.
Serious- Increased conservatism.
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tfunk



Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Location: Dublin, Ireland

PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

zeldalee13 wrote:
Two reasons birth rates will increase in the west:

Funny- Increasing cost of outside entertainment.
Serious- Increased conservatism.


I don't think people will choose having children as an alternative form of entertainment! Maybe you're thinking about the old/catholic/non-contraceptive days.

What do you mean by conservatism?
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mole



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Act III

PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm reading Michael J. Panzner's FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON and came across this quote last night.
I remembered this thread, because the friendly folks at Dave's off-topic are like family to me.
Quote:
The rising economic burden and dour outlook will see marriage and birth rates fall
and divorce rates rise.
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Robot_Teacher



Joined: 18 Feb 2009
Location: Robotting Around the World

PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was told by Korean teachers that during the IMF, birth rates in Korea went way down. Evidence is 1st through 4th grade classes are much smalller than than 5th grade on up. My 3rd and 4th grade classes are only 15 to 17 students while my 5th and 6th grade classes are 30 to 35 students. The 1st and 2nd grade are only 12 and 14 students with kindergarten being 10 students.

Of course, the perceived decreased birthrate might be due to the fact young adults leave smalltowns for their careers in the cities. In my smalltown and surrounding area, you have mostly elderly, a few kids, and very few in their 20's and 30's who are the teachers, nurses, and other civil service people.

In the West, I perceive that birthrates have been decreasing for some time now as people in their 20's and 30's are having fewer or no kids for economic and personal freedom reasons. I'm mid 30's, don't have kids, and don't plan to even though I think it would be a joy to raise a son. The economics and being a bachelor don't support me having kids. What Michael J. Panzner wrote has already been happening.
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Jeff's Cigarettes



Joined: 27 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty scary for the newer generations of Kimberies now. In my third and fourth grade elementary school classes now, the boys out number the girls 3 to 1. Shocked
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Robot_Teacher



Joined: 18 Feb 2009
Location: Robotting Around the World

PostPosted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 5:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jeff's Cigarettes wrote:
Pretty scary for the newer generations of Kimberies now. In my third and fourth grade elementary school classes now, the boys out number the girls 3 to 1. Shocked



Yep! I noticed many more boys in all my elementary classes. 3 to 5 boys per 1 girl is one of the 1st things I noticed.
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RACETRAITOR



Joined: 24 Oct 2005
Location: Seoul, South Korea

PostPosted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robot_Teacher wrote:
I was told by Korean teachers that during the IMF, birth rates in Korea went way down.


Korea is way different than the west. Here people are willing to punish themselves for a decreasing economy by working longer hours. In the west, the poorer you are (and the more religious), the more you hump. Let's just hope saddlebacking takes off.
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