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Hater Depot
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
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 Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:02 am Post subject: Researcher: Pundits are wrong about everything |
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http://www.bryanappleyard.com/blog/2009/03/pundits-are-wrong-about-everything.php
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| He took 284 pundits and asked them questions about the future. Their performance was worse than chance. With three possible answers, they were right less than 33 per cent of the time. A monkey chucking darts would have done better. |
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agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
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| Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Guess who didn't receive this memo: John McCain |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Very entertaining. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: Researcher: Pundits are wrong about everything |
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| Hater Depot wrote: |
http://www.bryanappleyard.com/blog/2009/03/pundits-are-wrong-about-everything.php
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| He took 284 pundits and asked them questions about the future. Their performance was worse than chance. With three possible answers, they were right less than 33 per cent of the time. A monkey chucking darts would have done better. |
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I wonder what the figure for Fox news is? |
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michaelambling
Joined: 31 Dec 2008
Location: Paradise
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| Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: Researcher: Pundits are wrong about everything |
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| blade wrote: |
| Hater Depot wrote: |
http://www.bryanappleyard.com/blog/2009/03/pundits-are-wrong-about-everything.php
| Quote: |
| He took 284 pundits and asked them questions about the future. Their performance was worse than chance. With three possible answers, they were right less than 33 per cent of the time. A monkey chucking darts would have done better. |
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I wonder what the figure for Fox news is? |
Yeah, they didn't say what the "monkey chucking darts" figure was. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 1:08 am Post subject: |
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| What was the technical name for that again, something like specialization blindness? I remember another article from about a year or two ago (I only saw it once so there's almost no chance I'll be able to find it again) that showed that people that had too much education in a single subject had lost their ability to think rationally about it and often came to some pretty weird conclusions where others that had only a fair amount of knowledge were correct a lot of the time. This was about the Israel-Palestine conflict in particular. |
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riverboy
Joined: 03 Jun 2003
Location: Incheon
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| Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 2:11 am Post subject: |
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| What was the technical name for that again, something like specialization blindness? I remember another article from about a year or two ago (I only saw it once so there's almost no chance I'll be able to find it again) that showed that people that had too much education in a single subject had lost their ability to think rationally about it and often came to some pretty weird conclusions where others that had only a fair amount of knowledge were correct a lot of the time. This was about the Israel-Palestine conflict in particular. |
Sounds just like Gopher. Smart guy, does'nt seem to get it though  |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 7:24 am Post subject: |
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Ha ha. Mithridates still seems to carry a chip on his shoulder re: people who finished college. And what is next, Riverboy? Going to assign me mental illness?
I just love how leftist thinkers -- the inclusive, tolerant people -- deal with those whose views do not accord with right-thinking people on the Arab-Israeli Conflict and/or depart from their dogma more generally... |
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riverboy
Joined: 03 Jun 2003
Location: Incheon
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| Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:47 pm Post subject: |
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And what is next, Riverboy? Going to assign me mental illness?
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Nope just a bitter little nerd! . Apart from you arrogance, myopia and anger for being the last one picked on the baseball team when you were young, you are probably not a bad guy. |
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agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
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| Posted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 5:38 am Post subject: |
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| riverboy wrote: |
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And what is next, Riverboy? Going to assign me mental illness?
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Nope just a bitter little nerd! . Apart from you arrogance, myopia and anger for being the last one picked on the baseball team when you were young, you are probably not a bad guy. |
Maybe he got beaned in the balls by a left-handed pitcher. |
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riverboy
Joined: 03 Jun 2003
Location: Incheon
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| Posted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 8:07 am Post subject: |
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Maybe he got beaned in the balls by a left-handed pitcher.
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You know... It took me a minute to figure that out, but that was pretty damn funny man! |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 10:05 am Post subject: |
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| mithridates wrote: |
| What was the technical name for that again, something like specialization blindness? *snip* This was about the Israel-Palestine conflict in particular. |
I don't think the Israel-Palestine conflict is precisely that representative. |
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