Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Omkara]

I have only reasons to believe that this positive trend in the won will continue into the summer. My information is limited.

Do you have the same thinking? Any positive or negative indications?

Why do you think it is moving in the positive direction? Owing to the rally in the States? Or a money swap (therefore, only a short-term trend to be followed by another dive)?

I feel good about this one. But I need to make some commitments, so I'm looking for the best evidence and insights I can get.

[bassexpander]

Gosh, I hope it does hold through summer.

I'd like to put my won in something other than won or dollars after that point.

[jdog2050]

[Demonicat]

prognosis is good friend. The korean finance ministry has been making some gutsy choices that are building confidence, and really working well. I'm not going to go out on a limb, but the future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

[superacidjax]

A stronger US economy = a weaker dollar.

If Barack does his thing, expect the dollar to gain strength.

In times of US economic turmoil, people tend to keep dollars as cash as opposed to investing them, thus making the dollar stronger. There are fewer in circulation, essentially. The effects of inflation and "dumping" by central banks is not as predicatable and therefore I never make my decisions on what "might" happen, only what is happening. There are no signs from any central banks that there will be a dump of US dollar, although Japan has a historical tendency to do so at opportune moments. If the dollar gets too strong, expect Japan and perhaps China to dump in order to protect their exports. This is a very simplified explanation of course. But the net result is that fewer people will invest in US securities, thus making the dollar more scarce and therefore raising its value.

Barack is not going to improve the US economy, so I would take advantage of any temporary Won upswings.

I used to be a currency trader back in 2000-2002 and we had similar issues with the dollar-euro.

Immediate short term: sell Won. Mid term (3-8 months) sell dollars. After 1 yr, probably sell Won again, unless of course there is some major tanking in the US economy.

Remember the dollar is generally INVERSE of the strength of the US economy. Counterintuitive, but that simply a function of the trade deficit.

This is also obvious advice that should be taken only within your own comfort level. I wouldn't expect the dollar to fall too much more in the near term, but use your judgement.