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itaewonguy
Joined: 25 Mar 2003
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 Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: Best Stocks for 2009 |
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ok guys, you got any tips for 2009?
sure pretty much any stock will be a good stock if the market rebounds.
but which stocks do you guys like? |
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Thedudeabides
Joined: 15 Jun 2008
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| Posted: Sun Dec 21, 2008 10:22 am Post subject: |
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| With a worldwide depression just getting started, I like commodities alot better than stocks. In this environment, it's a great way to hedge your bets. |
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Beeyee
Joined: 29 May 2007
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| Posted: Sun Dec 21, 2008 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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| I agree. Unless you really know what you are doing (and the fact that you had to ask makes me think that you dont), commodities are the safe bet. |
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pkang0202
Joined: 09 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Sun Dec 21, 2008 6:19 pm Post subject: |
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| I would begin to invest in alternative energy companies. This industry is going to explode soon. |
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BS.Dos.
Joined: 29 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Sun Dec 21, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Oxo. |
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mole
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Act III
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| Posted: Sun Dec 21, 2008 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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Alternative energies and food.
Again, I don't like the idea that someone starves when my soy rallies, though.
Curious, how can you guys even contemplate getting into the markets in these conditions?
Are you not aware we just had a huge crash on Wall Street?
Did you not see gold, silver, and oil make crazy gains, then plummet all within 6~7 months?
I tend to dig deep for my market commentary, but even mainstream media can't
sugar coat what we are witnessing.
Check out Exter's Pyramid.. You're discussing investments in the top, red portion.
The wise already own gold and silver. (not the paper/cyber ETF shite)
The slow are stampeding down the pyramid.
The lost sheeple are discussing fantasy land.
I don't have the stomach for it, but if you believe recovery is possible (likely? LOL)
and believe industry nationalization won't become rampant, look into junior mining operations.
http://www.miningpedia.com
You high-rollers are too rich for my blood. Let's just take a Vegas jaunt and at least have fun while our wealth evaporates. |
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Jati
Joined: 13 Dec 2008
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| Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 1:00 am Post subject: |
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| mole wrote: |
Curious, how can you guys even contemplate getting into the markets in these conditions?
Are you not aware we just had a huge crash on Wall Street?
Did you not see gold, silver, and oil make crazy gains, then plummet all within 6~7 months?
I tend to dig deep for my market commentary, but even mainstream media can't
sugar coat what we are witnessing. |
Getting into the market now makes more sense than getting into the stock market early in 2000 (at the peak), or taking out a no-down ARM mortgage in 2006, or buying oil futures at $145 (July 2008), or buying in at the peak of any bubble: ag. stocks in mid-2008, gold at $1030, copper at $4.50, etc.
Basically, our markets have been going through a period of enhanced volatility whereby everyone seems to jump into the same sector at the same time until it hits bubble heights and then crashes. (Some figure it is due to the proliferation of hedge funds, which tend to copy each other.) The best quote that I have heard regarding this is that there are three stages to any trough-to-bubble move: innovators (more like opportunists), copycats, fools.
The opportunists recognise when an asset class is undervalued as some of the big-cap, dividend-paying, low-debt companies are right now. They buy in. Prices begin to rise. Copycats jump in then, seeing where the "smart" money is going. Prices keep rising. Finally, the fools jump in saying things like:
"The fundamentals have changed; this is not a bubble, but rather a NEW economy."
or
"I will buy this house, even though I cannot afford it, because I can always turn around and sell it next year ("flip it") for a higher price. You know, housing prices always go up." <-- This is called The Greater Fool Theory, that there is always someone more foolish than you who will buy what you shouldn't have bought.
and so forth. So, it is not that there are any BAD asset classes (exception: airlines and auto manufacturers; any company with massive pension obligations), but rather the timing of your entry or exit.
Most asset classes have their positives and their negatives; it is more a matter of when to buy in, and when to sell. If you are a long-term investor, then you will see the cycles come and go, and will not be bothered too much by the fluctuations. Unrealised gains OR losses are just that: unrealised unless and until you sell. We can be fooled both on the UP side and the DOWN side.
Best to buy into some good companies that pay out dividends and keep growing those dividends year by year. There are some companies that have been increasing their dividends for YEARS running through all of this market NOISE (up, down, up, down, "It ALWAYS goes up", "The world is coming to an END!").
Keeping one's head is the most important skill.
So, yeah, run out and buy gold like everyone else. Gold is probably the next bubble. I remember last summer when oil was $145 and every talking head on TV was saying that it was going to $200, $300. It might; hahaha; but it is obviously getting there by going through $40 first! I have a feeling that gold might not go the way that every talking head is now predicting. |
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Beej
Joined: 05 Mar 2005
Location: Eungam Loop
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| Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 1:11 am Post subject: |
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| Blue Horse Shoe loves Anacot Steel. |
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itaewonguy
Joined: 25 Mar 2003
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| Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 1:42 am Post subject: |
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| Beej wrote: |
| Blue Horse Shoe loves Anacot Steel. |
ahahahahahahaahaha 
| Quote: |
| I agree. Unless you really know what you are doing (and the fact that you had to ask makes me think that you dont), commodities are the safe bet. |
I asked becuase I wanted to know what people liked!
you say Commodities well which ones? |
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Jati
Joined: 13 Dec 2008
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| Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 2:54 am Post subject: |
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| itaewonguy wrote: |
| Beej wrote: |
| Blue Horse Shoe loves Anacot Steel. |
ahahahahahahaahaha
| Quote: |
| I agree. Unless you really know what you are doing (and the fact that you had to ask makes me think that you dont), commodities are the safe bet. |
I asked becuase I wanted to know what people liked!
you say Commodities well which ones? |
How about copper? Better wait, however, until it bottoms and begins to go back up.
Better yet, buy the shares of a company that produces copper, and gold, and other materials that are needed by growing economies (China, India). Freeport-McMoran and BHP Billiton are good for this, and they pay dividends also. |
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McLovin
Joined: 17 Nov 2008
Location: Taiwan (Korea wannabe)
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| Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 7:42 am Post subject: |
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Oil Oil Oil.
The current price of oil is insanely low. I'd look at "USO" which invests in oil futures.
Financials will bounce back too from historic lows, but I'd hold off on those until mid/late 2009. |
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mole
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Act III
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| Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: |
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| Jati wrote: |
| someone wrote: |
you say Commodities well which ones? |
How about copper? Better wait, however, until it bottoms and begins to go back up.
Better yet, buy the shares of a company that produces copper, and gold, and other materials that are needed by growing economies (China, India). Freeport-McMoran and BHP Billiton are good for this, and they pay dividends also. |
You've got my attention.
Please know I hope my gloomy outlook is WRONG.
I just see no evidence otherwise.
When you mention Copper, I assume you mean mining companies or ETFs.
Digital Cyber-bytes and paper, that's all it is.
Many of us "tinfoil hatters" predict a CRIMEX gold and silver default in short order. Please read up on recent backwardation in gold.
Since I have time on my hands, I often have Bloomberg on TV as I research the financial world online.
Recently, both a democratic and republican spokesperson were debating.
When asked where the money for bailouts, loans, capital injections, etc. comes from,
both answered almost in unison, "China." |
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Jati
Joined: 13 Dec 2008
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| Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 7:46 pm Post subject: |
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| mole wrote: |
| Jati wrote: |
| someone wrote: |
you say Commodities well which ones? |
Better yet, buy the shares of a company that produces copper, and gold, and other materials that are needed by growing economies (China, India). Freeport-McMoran and BHP Billiton are good for this, and they pay dividends also. |
You've got my attention.
Please know I hope my gloomy outlook is WRONG.
I just see no evidence otherwise.
When you mention Copper, I assume you mean mining companies or ETFs.
Digital Cyber-bytes and paper, that's all it is.
Many of us "tinfoil hatters" predict a CRIMEX gold and silver default in short order. Please read up on recent backwardation in gold.
Since I have time on my hands, I often have Bloomberg on TV as I research the financial world online.
Recently, both a democratic and republican spokesperson were debating.
When asked where the money for bailouts, loans, capital injections, etc. comes from,
both answered almost in unison, "China." |
Yeah, I hear you on that China quote.
When it is said that the USA has $2.44Trillion investment deficit with other countries (Wall Street Journal, 20/12/2008), it really means that the USA holds $17.64T in the assets of other countries and those countries hold $20.08T of USA assets (including T-bills, T-notes). People say, "What if China decides not to buy our assets anymore?" Good point. China is searching around Africa and other places, looking for places in which to invest to secure long-term sources of oil, metals, and farm products. But, China also heavily depends upon the consumers in the USA to keep their export-economy moving along. If we stop buying, then they will be hurting also.
What other currency will they decide to hold for safe-keeping? Their own? Japan's? Germany's? Botswana's? Yeah, the USA is flirting with financial disaster with the massive bailouts and currency devaluation, but until some other country comes along, with a strong-enough economy AND a stable poltical environment, the rich around the world will still want to hold USA securities.
I don't like ETFs or mutual funds for various reasons, but one place where closed-end funds and ETFs work is for investing overseas (outside the USA). For example, the iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) is a good 'play' on both commodities and energy. It came to my attention last summer around $108; added it to my watch list at $79; and finally bought two weeks ago at $31.50. Now it is around $36 and moving upwards again. It is also attracting a lot of attention. But what is important to me is that it has a 4% distribution yield.
Similarly, closed-end funds for India (IFN) and Hong Kong/China (TDF) have done very well for me. I don't pay too much attention to the price, after having purchased, but rather the distributions that they pay out (dividends, short-term and long-term capital gains, and investment income). The annual return on those distributions is starting to run over 11% per year. What other asset class -including gold- gives you such a return WITHOUT having to sell the asset? And these returns are 'locked in' since I actually receive the money, it is REALISED. Most asset classes have unrealised gains and losses until and unless sold.
BTW, unlike some commentators on this topic, I actually have money invested....a significant amount. This is not idle talk for me. |
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itaewonguy
Joined: 25 Mar 2003
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| Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2008 1:18 am Post subject: |
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I saw a bank the other day offering 8% annual interest for a savings account...
seems better than most stocks will return in dividends... |
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weatherman
Joined: 14 Jan 2003
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2008 4:22 am Post subject: |
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| Bank stocks. HSBC. |
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