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Can someone explain this? Won dollar exchange rate
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lifeinkorea



Joined: 24 Jan 2009
Location: somewhere in China

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 9:41 am    Post subject: Can someone explain this? Won dollar exchange rate Reply with quote

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2009/05/123_44710.html

Quote:
``If the local currency continues to gain ground at the current pace, authorities will not likely sit idle and may buy dollars from the foreign exchange market to take the heat from the soaring won-dollar rate trend,'' Kim said, projecting the won-dollar rate will not fall below 1,200 won and will hover at between 1,250 won and 1,300 won for the foreseeable future.


1) Why would they do this? I understand they want to sell stuff, but why would they choose to not be at 1,000 won to 1 dollar?

2) Second, a couple years ago, it was under 1,000 won to 1 dollar. Was this a case where they didn't want that, or was there considerable "quality" to what they were selling that they could have an exchange rate more in the favor of the won?
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wish the gov't would butt out and let the Won improve, but the reason they don't want a strong Won is that it makes Korean products more expensive overseas, losing the advantage of cheaper prices.
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poet13



Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Location: Just over there....throwing lemons.

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the simplest explanation is that if the Won is too strong, it will make Korean exports too expensive. The world economy is still very troubled, and people are in general, more in a hoarding rather than spending state of mind. It doesn't take much to convince people right now that they don't absolutely need that piece of Korean electronic.
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coralreefer_1



Joined: 19 Jan 2009

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 2:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Can someone explain this? Won dollar exchange rate Reply with quote

lifeinkorea wrote:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2009/05/123_44710.html

Quote:
``If the local currency continues to gain ground at the current pace, authorities will not likely sit idle and may buy dollars from the foreign exchange market to take the heat from the soaring won-dollar rate trend,'' Kim said, projecting the won-dollar rate will not fall below 1,200 won and will hover at between 1,250 won and 1,300 won for the foreseeable future.


1) Why would they do this? I understand they want to sell stuff, but why would they choose to not be at 1,000 won to 1 dollar?

2) Second, a couple years ago, it was under 1,000 won to 1 dollar. Was this a case where they didn't want that, or was there considerable "quality" to what they were selling that they could have an exchange rate more in the favor of the won?




1. Agree with the above post - As a country largely dependent on exports, the rising value of the won which is pegged to the dollar, makes those imports more expensive. The US is the second largest destination for Korean exports, and at a time of such economic turmoil, expensive plasma T.V's may not sell so well with a $1/1,000 rate. On the flip side, a higher exchange rate makes imports more expensive here in Korea and in some ways motivates economically strapped people to buy domestic.

2. I think this is because during that time, the world was not in such an economic crisis, and competition from China for Korean goods elsewhere in the world was not a large as it is now. The production infrastructure and technology in China has grown quite a bit over the past few years and will only continue in this direction for the future. Although Korea's main exports to the world as still considered good quality and worthy of a fair market price, at this time it may be better for Korean companies and government to sacrifice a little profit and keep production and exports high to maintain brand loyalty among foreign consumers, and maintain output (jobs) at home.
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What most of you don't realize is that Korea is an export country and most of its economic success is due to production.

Due to the credit crunch crisis, a lot of countries are using les then 50% of their production capacity (Economics of Scale ...).

This means 1. less people working 2.higher unit cost 3. less margin and so on and so forth.

That is why the Korean government will focus on keeping itself competitive by keeping the value of the won low. It is a classic "beg-thy-neighbor' scenario.
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crossmr



Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Location: Hwayangdong, Seoul

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Canada does this too. When the Canadian dollar was sitting at $1.10 US last year, all the manufacturers were whining non-stop about how they needed government help. The 35 million consumers told them to go *beep* themselves because we were tired of being so screwed at the register. $6.99 US/$10.99CAD for a paperback. I'm sure they're dancing now that the dollar has tanked again.
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mayorgc



Joined: 19 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Juregen, it doesn't take a genius to realize that Korea is an export country.

btw, I think it's "Economies of scale".
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Jammer113



Joined: 13 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, one reason is definitely that Korea has been hugely helped in this economic environment by being able to export so cheaply. As long as import costs are cheap for things like oil and steel, which they currently are, Korea can afford to keep their won low.

Another thing is that businesses don't want wild gyrations in the won. Businesses are built on stability, and it is hard to invest in any sort of business when you don't know what the won will do over the next six months.

Also, the government burned a lot of money last year slowing the descent of the won, maybe they can make some of that back, now.
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Jane



Joined: 01 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes the above posters are right.

A bit more to add: Export-driven countries, particularly those in Asia, are finding it difficult lately to keep growth positive, as the US is a main buyer of Korean goods. These days, US consumers are not really buying 'luxury items' like electronic goods and cars, so Korea wants to keep the won low vis-a-vis the USD as much as possible to stimulate buying from the US side.

Second, price stability is one of the most important goals for any country, as it drives foreign investment and exports. Furthermore, Korea wants to have an attractive finance market, and to do that, they have to stabilize the won.
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Rusty Shackleford



Joined: 08 May 2008

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Korean Fed does actively manipulate the won, but they aren't actually that successful. The amount of won reserves (buying foreign currency) they put onto the exchange market, is really only a drop in the bucket. Traders generally tend to buy up all the cheap won fairly fast, so the effect is short term at best.

Govt manipulation of any market always fails.
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mayorgc wrote:
Juregen, it doesn't take a genius to realize that Korea is an export country.

btw, I think it's "Economies of scale".


Thanks for the correction.

I wasn't implying that they don't know the export part, but the result of Korea being an export country and losing it's effectiveness by having a reduced use of it's production capacity.

That is the significant issue I was trying to address Smile.
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lithium



Joined: 18 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
I wish the gov't would butt out and let the Won improve, but the reason they don't want a strong Won is that it makes Korean products more expensive overseas, losing the advantage of cheaper prices.


I can not believe it! Why don't you feel the same about the Obama government? Hypocrite... Rolling Eyes
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weatherman



Joined: 14 Jan 2003
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The strength of the won is an indication of the health of the overall korean ecomomy. The weak rates in truth helped the economy greatly, and the government is loath to have an exchange rate that threatens exports. I'm sure companies are buying raw materials on 6 month or longer contracts to lock down the value of the stronger won right now.
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michaelambling



Joined: 31 Dec 2008
Location: Paradise

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 5:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lithium wrote:
Ya-ta Boy wrote:
I wish the gov't would butt out and let the Won improve, but the reason they don't want a strong Won is that it makes Korean products more expensive overseas, losing the advantage of cheaper prices.


I can not believe it! Why don't you feel the same about the Obama government? Hypocrite... Rolling Eyes


Uh...Bush passed the first bailout.
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NCdan



Joined: 17 Apr 2009
Location: Bucheon

PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 6:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agile guitars must remain dirt cheap. The won must not go up. Cool
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