Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Eedoryeong]

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2904456

[excerpt]
IMF predicts Korea�s GDP to fall below $15K in 2009

Gloomy forecast for inflation rate, employment figures
May 06, 2009

Korea�s per capita income will fall below $15,000 this year and won�t recover to the $20,000 mark until 2014, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Inflation in the country, however, will hit the highest level among advanced economies beginning next year, the IMF added.

The gloomy prospects for Koreans, which connotes weakening purchasing power, was part of the IMF�s revised outlook on the world economy.

In 2007, Korea�s gross domestic product per capita stood at $21,695, but it shrank to $19,231 as the global recession began to affect the domestic economy from the second half of last year...
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Trying to figure out how this will affect exchange rates later in the year. If less people have purchasing power, but the government still has a surplus every year for the next few years, does that mean that EFL teachers will live better within the country, but get hit harder on exchanges if sending back home?

[cdninkorea]

Be careful about posting this or the government might arrest you (I'm kidding in this case of course, but still horrified that they really do interfere with journalists reporting negative economic forecasts).

[Eedoryeong]

So the way I see it is:
-government maintains a surplus = government services, civil services stay untouched (e.g. military, fire, police, hospitals, schools)
-average person has less money to spend = hagwons hit harder? public schools, int.l schools, uni posts will see more competition?
- country has less purchasing power overseas = exchange rates will worsen again, but within the country things will get cheaper...

... except for the bit about inflation anticipated to climb will mean that costs will climb faster than wages.

Is that about right?

[PRagic]

Just wait until the real estate bubble goes 'pop'. All bets are off until then. Short term, however, Korea's trade surpluses should strengthen the won. Then the government is said to be considering defending AGAINST the rise in order to spur exports. Classic.

[PEI George]

This article is very misleading. Purchasing power hasn't been affected much, since people in Korea overwhelmingly buy Korean goods. Imports are way down, but typically, there are available substitutes in Korea. The article suggests Koreans have lost 25% of their income, which is ludicrous.

[madoka]

[The Grumpy Senator]

[Yu_Bum_suk]

This just goes to show how much fluctuating currencies affect statistics that don't reflect personal wealth and comfort very accurately. Canada's GDP per capita soared last summer and then shrank sharply. The standard of living for most people only changed slightly. All it would take would be for OPEC to switch to Euros as its trading currency and suddenly Korea's GDP per capita would be back up to $20,000US and Portugal would suddenly have a higher 'standard of living'.

[Blueberry]

[Gimpokid]

[crossmr]

[grunden]

It seems like the sky will fall here, I read that report too, and it seems if this place is holding on by its fingernails, one small push and the won will slide. I already sent my paycheck home, western union, now all I am waiting for is time, it will slide

[PEI George]

[PEI George]

[jkelly80]

I'm sorry but isn't CPI/RPI pretty much the same as inflation? 1.7% is nothing in one year.