|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
ersatzredux
Joined: 15 Dec 2007
Location: Same as it ever was, same as it ever was
|
 Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:54 pm Post subject: Seoul a sea of fire? |
 |
|
Excellent analysis by Eric Margolis, and a troubling one...
| Quote: |
OK Mr. Gates. What Now?
By Eric Margolis
June 03, 2009 "Lew Rockwell" -- PARIS � One of the first things you learn in diplomacy 101 is not to make threats you can�t back up.
But that is just what US Defense Secretary Robert Gates did last week by thundering the US "would not accept," and "would not stand idly by" while North Korea continued to develop nuclear weapons.
North Korea�s nuclear weapons threaten the entire globe, warned Gates, whose own Pentagon has some 10,000 nuclear warheads deployed at home and abroad, 28,500 troops permanently based in South Korea, and large contingents in Japan, Okinawa and Guam.
Not to be out-threatened, North Korea warned back that if attacked, it would turn South Korea�s capitol, Seoul, into "a sea of fire" and bombard Japan.
Dire threats and angry hot air always characterize poisonous relations between isolated, Stalinist North Korea and the US, Japan and South Korea. Their recriminations have become a form of ritualized kabuki theater in which snarls and grimaces replace actual violence.
After much angry posturing, the US, Japan and South Korea usually pay off North Korea�s "Dear Leader," Kim Jong-il, to stop making trouble.
But this time, both Washington and Pyongyang have gone over the top. One wonders how Secretary Gates intends to prevent North Korea from having the nuclear devices it already possesses.
The Pentagon has run out of troops and borrowed money, and is reluctant to tangle with North Korea�s tough, 1.1-million man army. Ever since Vietnam, the US has preferred to use its military only against small nations with limited defense capability, like Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq.
There is no way the US will fight a land war against North Korea. A US bombing and missile campaign against North Korea would be unlikely to cripple its nuclear program. But such an attack would certainly trigger a major war.
After North Korea�s second small nuclear test last week, there is real danger this usually harmless kabuki could turn lethal. US and South Korean forces are on high alert and North Korea says it has torn up the cease-fire that supposedly ended the Korean War. US war planes and naval units are buzzing around North Korea like angry hornets.
North Korea�s few nukes are not a world danger � at least not yet. The North has 800 inaccurate medium-ranged missiles aimed at South Korea and Japan, but they only have conventional high explosive warheads. North Korea is not believed to have yet mastered miniaturizing or hardening nuclear warheads for delivery by missile. There are suggestions it may be working on a long-ranged missile.
Pyongyang�s bloodcurdling threats notwithstanding, its infant nuclear force is primarily defensive. North Koreans have had to literally eat grass to pay for their nukes.
When eventually deployed, Kim�s nuclear-armed missiles are designed to deter potential US nuclear strikes on North Korea by threatening counter-strikes on South Korea, Japan and US bases on Okinawa and Guam. North Korea would be unlikely to initiate a nuclear war with a major nuclear power that would result in its immediate obliteration by US nuclear retaliation and vaporization of the Kim dynasty.
But after this week�s nuclear test, a new danger has emerged. The US has renewed threats to stop and search North Korean freighters on the high seas that might be carrying "weapons of mass destruction," missiles or military components to the Mideast. South Korea and Japan will do the same, but only in their coastal waters. North Korea warns, quite correctly, that such a high seas arrest would be an act of war.
The plot thickens. Israel worries that North Korea, desperate for hard cash, will sell more missiles, technology and spare parts to the Arabs or Iran, and in the future, nuclear warheads. Washington frets North Korea may sell a nuclear device to anti-American extremists.
Israel has put intense pressure on the Obama administration to stop any flow of North Korean weapons to the Mideast. The White House responded by threats of a maritime blockade of North Korea.
North Korea says it will retaliate militarily for any high seas seizures, either in its disputed coastal waters against South Korean naval forces, or by attacking US ships and spy aircraft that routinely shadow North Korea�s coast and occasionally overfly North Korea.
If this happens, the US would likely respond by missile strikes and air attacks. North Korea would then riposte with barrages of heavy artillery and long-range rocket batteries along the DMZ against South Korea�s capitol, a mere 25 miles distant. Attacks on US bases in South Korea by North Korea�s large numbers of Scud missiles could follow.
The Obama administration is playing with fire by threatening an act of war against North Korea which has so many American troops in its gun sights.
If Kim Jong-il refuses to back down, Washington will be left with the nasty choice of either taking some sort of military action that is certain to prove indecisive, or lose face with its allies and foes, and listen to Kim crow. That�s the awkward position Secretary Gates has put himself in. What happens when the Dear Leader calls his bluff?
Kim Jong-il is happy to play chicken with Washington because this dangerous game boosts his stature at home and makes him a hero to some Koreans, both North and South, who see Kim as the authentic Korean leader for defying the mighty US and refusing to give in to its threats � a sort of Korean Saddam Hussein. North Korea has long accused South Korea of being an American colony under US military occupation, and North Korea as the only "free, independent Korea."
Like his late father, Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il has repeatedly vowed to reunite the Korean Peninsula before he dies. Time is running out for the ailing Kim. His pledge should not be taken lightly. This latest crisis must thus be seen as a function of the inner-Korean struggle for unity � under the Kim dynasty, of course.
The Dear Leader faces internal challenges over plans to name one of his three sons North Korea�s next dynastic leader. The latest nuclear test and America�s threats will help Kim. Another of his foes, South Korea�s conservative, pro-American president, Lee Myung-bak, is now under siege by his own people after the tragic suicide of former president, Roh Moo-hyun, who favored reconciliation with North Korea.
If the North Asian nuclear crisis intensifies, Japan and South Korea may be forced to deploy nuclear weapons which both can do quickly. Japan can produce a nuclear weapon in less than 90 days.
Kim Jong-il has picked his time well. Iraq is heating up again. At least fifty thousand US troops are slated to remain there at least until 2011. The war in Afghanistan and now Pakistan � or Afpak � is going very badly for the US, which is rushing more troops there. Washington has provoked a volcanic upheaval in Pakistan�s Northwest Frontier Province. The US is bankrupt and living on borrowed money. What better time to show who is really boss on the Korean Peninsula.
The Obama administration should proceed with caution. This latest crisis with North Korea is clear proof that America�s world power has already reached its limits.
Eric Margolis, contributing foreign editor for Sun National Media Canada. He is the author of War at the Top of the World and the new book, American Raj: Liberation or Domination?: Resolving the Conflict Between the West and the Muslim World. See his website. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
We should be thinking less about Washington's reaction and more about Beijing's. Especially on a day like today.
| Quote: |
Certainly, Beijing hates it when important events and political summits, such as those with Japan's prime minister and the KMT chairman, are overshadowed by accidents or other unexpected occurrences - and Pyongyang is close enough to Beijing to be aware of this. Thus, we can safely assume that North Korea timed the tests to provoke China, and China understood them in that way.
Yet, this does not explain why China didn't react strongly to these provocations, as it would if they had come from different quarters.
Here, politics and geopolitics play their role. For Beijing, cutting a provocative North Korea down to size would bring more problems than it solved. China, being politically conservative and cautious, tends not to take chances without being sure of the results. And there are many uncertainties about North Korea's future.
If the country were to fall apart, who would look after the 22 million North Koreans left without a state? South Korea, Japan, the United States and China are unwilling. But China would most likely have to shoulder most of the burden since refugees would not be able to flee through the highly militarized southern border into South Korea, but they could enter China by crossing the poorly guarded Yalu River. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
|
| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:56 pm Post subject: |
|
|
We should be thinking about how we should've toppled the regime, like the Ba'athists, while they were not in possession of atomic weapons. I'm reluctant to say so, since it distracts attention from our present topic, but I supported the Iraq War because even though the intelligence as to Saddam's nukes was incorrect, it was desirable to get rid of them before they have them.
North Korea and their nukes is chilling, intuitive evidence for how correct that view was and is.
But don't fall down agreeing. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
BS.Dos.
Joined: 29 Mar 2007
|
| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:04 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Kuros wrote: |
| We should be thinking less about Washington's reaction and more about Beijing's. Especially on a day like today. |
Good piece. Thanks. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:06 pm Post subject: |
|
|
So, the North might actually attack some (carefully chosen, I assume) ROK targets in the near future:
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/worldview/090603/north-korea-watch
| Quote: |
NAGANO, Japan � Expect North Korean naval and land forces to fire missiles and guns in coming days at South Korean targets in a disputed north-south border area in the Yellow Sea, killing some South Koreans and suffering a measured military retaliation.
,,,
�The South is expecting a naval confrontation,'' said Bechtol, who chronicled past North-South naval confrontations in his 2007 book �Red Rogue,� in which he argued that the North had to have planned carefully, and trained exactingly, for previous confrontations in 1999 and 2002, although in the end it was beaten.
�Thus, the North would have to be very careful if they initiated one,� he said.
�The South Korean naval craft are distinctly superior to those of the North,� Bechtol said. �Unless the North Korean navy tricks them into an isolated event where a smaller craft is by itself, any confrontation would likely evolve into a North Korean ship or boat being sunk and Pyongyang having egg on its face as it did in 1999.� |
This is a pretty dangerous game the Norks are playing. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
|
| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:17 pm Post subject: |
|
|
With the US bogged down in two wars and broke, the Norks couldn't have a much more opportune time to attack, unfortunately.
Time to go to Taiwan? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:21 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| With the US bogged down in two wars and broke, the Norks couldn't have a much more opportune time to attack, unfortunately. |
They'd lose proper-like if Seoul was touched. I assume they're merely trying to push the envelop.
This is yet another example why the US should just stay home. Japan and the ROK can handle the Norks.
| Quote: |
| Time to go to Taiwan? |
Try SG. There is a small esl industry there. You'll have a very high standard of living. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dmbfan
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
|
| Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2009 1:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
They'd lose proper-like if Seoul was touched. I assume they're merely trying to push the envelop.
This is yet another example why the US should just stay home. Japan and the ROK can handle the Norks. |
Yeah, that is........smart. In this case, if the U.S. stays at home then people can say how the U.S. abandoned South Korea, it's ally for 50 some od years....and not to mention Japan.
Honestly, do people beleive that "staying at home" is going to solve any problems? Will people like America more?
Good thing women don't plan these things out.
dmbfan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
JMO
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Location: Daegu
|
| Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2009 2:41 am Post subject: |
|
|
| mises wrote: |
Try SG. There is a small esl industry there. You'll have a very high standard of living. |
SG? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
BS.Dos.
Joined: 29 Mar 2007
|
| Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2009 3:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Singapore. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2009 7:56 am Post subject: |
|
|
| dmbfan wrote: |
Honestly, do people beleive that "staying at home" is going to solve any problems? Will people like America more?
dmbfan |
Who cares if "people" like America more. The agressive quest for popularity is supposed to end at high school.
The United States can't afford a parking ticket, let alone another "theater" of conflict. The more you are involved in other states, the deeper in you'll get pulled. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
djsmnc
Joined: 20 Jan 2003
Location: Dave's ESL Cafe
|
| Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2009 8:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
| mises wrote: |
| dmbfan wrote: |
Honestly, do people beleive that "staying at home" is going to solve any problems? Will people like America more?
dmbfan |
Who cares if "people" like America more. The agressive quest for popularity is supposed to end at high school.
The United States can't afford a parking ticket, let alone another "theater" of conflict. The more you are involved in other states, the deeper in you'll get pulled. |
Which is why we should have stayed out of most of these places in the first place. The US has its own country to protect, like from the silent invasion from the south. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rum Jungle
Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: North Asia
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:58 am Post subject: |
|
|
But flip it the other way.
OK Mr Kim, what are you going to do now?
Asking Mr Gates is not the question.
What does North Korea want? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 9:16 am Post subject: |
|
|
| dmbfan wrote: |
| Quote: |
They'd lose proper-like if Seoul was touched. I assume they're merely trying to push the envelop.
This is yet another example why the US should just stay home. Japan and the ROK can handle the Norks. |
Yeah, that is........smart. In this case, if the U.S. stays at home then people can say how the U.S. abandoned South Korea, it's ally for 50 some od years....and not to mention Japan.
Honestly, do people beleive that "staying at home" is going to solve any problems? Will people like America more?
Good thing women don't plan these things out.
dmbfan |
You honestly care weather or not people like us? Who cares? "Bring em home" and "stay at home" will solve a lot of problems, least of all for your check book. Redeploying all troops to US and her territories will save a good $750B a year which means a smaller government, a smaller price for government and more money in your pocket.
Still conservatives seem more interested in beating their chests and measuring wee-wees, I just don't get it. I thought conservatives wanted small government and more freedom, guess not. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 9:28 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Pluto wrote: |
| dmbfan wrote: |
| Quote: |
They'd lose proper-like if Seoul was touched. I assume they're merely trying to push the envelop.
This is yet another example why the US should just stay home. Japan and the ROK can handle the Norks. |
Yeah, that is........smart. In this case, if the U.S. stays at home then people can say how the U.S. abandoned South Korea, it's ally for 50 some od years....and not to mention Japan.
Honestly, do people beleive that "staying at home" is going to solve any problems? Will people like America more?
Good thing women don't plan these things out.
dmbfan |
You honestly care weather or not people like us? Who cares? "Bring em home" and "stay at home" will solve a lot of problems, least of all for your check book. Redeploying all troops to US and her territories will save a good $750B a year which means a smaller government, a smaller price for government and more money in your pocket.
Still conservatives seem more interested in beating their chests and measuring wee-wees, I just don't get it. I thought conservatives wanted small government and more freedom, guess not. |
ha, i've enjoyed pluto's steady disillusionment with the GOP.
Honestly, if the GOP had stuck to the small gov't and more freedom mantra, and not gone off the holy man, war-crazy deep end, it wouldn't be in the political wilderness it finds itself in right now. But I digress...
I'm guessing the DPRK's recent actions are a sign that things are even worse than they normally are in Kim Jong-Il land. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
