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Omkara

Joined: 18 Feb 2006 Location: USA
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Posted: Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:22 pm Post subject: Won Projections? |
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Anyone have any information about the trajectory of the won? I'd heard that there is anticipation that we'll be in the 1100's in the near term. . .I was just updated that it will stabilize at 1200 on September or October? |
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GoldMember
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
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Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2009 4:05 am Post subject: |
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Here we go again another person who thinks English Teachers are Foreign Currency Gurus. If I knew I wouldn't be here I'd be in my 200 ft yacht surrounded by a dozen babes cruising the Caribbean, because if I knew, I'd be making a fortune!
While your at it, why don't you ask if anyone on this board has cracked the secret to cold fusion. |
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okayden223
Joined: 05 Jun 2009 Location: Incheon
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Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2009 4:17 am Post subject: |
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I'm pretty sure the WON is supposed to overtake the dollar as the benchmark international currency next week. |
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teacherinseoul
Joined: 18 May 2008
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Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2009 5:04 am Post subject: |
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GoldMember wrote: |
While your at it, why don't you ask if anyone on this board has cracked the secret to cold fusion. |
Still working on it.
OP, the US government printed a fair bit of money for the last stimulus package. The safe-haven seeking investors (and government of China?) gobbled up the US dollar, so there wasn't any devaluation at the time.
Assuming the global economy recovers and the US doesn't need another stimulus package, then I think that the US dollar may still decline a bit more since the dollar fad seems to be over and the "morning-after" reality is that the US printed more money to help solve its problems.
Assuming that either a) inflation occurs in the US, or b) a second round of stimulus is needed, then the US dollar will continue to sink (perhaps rapidly).
Assuming that the world stays mired in economic problems, but the US doesn't need another stimulus package, then the dollar may stay even or climb a bit.
Anyways, that's four scenarios and only one of them has the US dollar likely to climb. That's my two cents. |
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Yaya

Joined: 25 Feb 2003 Location: Seoul
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Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:38 am Post subject: |
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The Korean won will depend on the direction of the Korean and global economies. The thing is, Korea posted growth of 2.3 percent in the second quarter, the highest in five years, BUT that was mostly due to massive government injections of funds.
And of course, money is not an infinite resource so experts are saying the second half of the year could see growth of under one percent. The job markets in both Korea and the U.S. are horrendous, and consumption in Korea has inched up barely.
The weak won has also helped Samsung and LG Electronics post record sales, but I wonder what will happen to them if the won gets stronger. Higher fuel prices are also another factor. |
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kinerry
Joined: 01 Jun 2009
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Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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With certainty, the dollar will weaken over the next year and beyond because of the inflation factors of the stimulus plans
Without certainty, we do not know where the won will head |
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Trevor
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2009 4:25 am Post subject: |
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Let's look at it from another angle. What could cause more downward pressure on the Won in the near future? The bad news is out and everybody is aware of it. They're still selling cell phones and the Korean economy has proved much more resilient than most western countries.
In my opinion, there is more upside than downside to the currency in the short-mdedium term. However, there is definitely no reason for the won to all of a sudden skyrocket out of nowhere. It is going to trade in this range for another 18 months, at least. i don't see parity with the dollar until at least 2010-11, but we'll get closer. |
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stayfocused
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 Location: Seoul
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peter07

Joined: 28 Jan 2003 Location: Gwangmyeong
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:26 am Post subject: |
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I wouldn't rule out 1,100 by year's end at the rate the Korean stock market is going. Don't forget, Korea's economy is one of the fastest rebounding in the world and experts have had to revise upward their growth forecasts for Korea.
But the second half will decide how this recovery will be. |
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