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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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 Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 4:48 pm Post subject: Iran's Election Results |
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http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090612_red_alert_irans_election_results_open_access/?utm_source=RedAlert&utm_campaign=none&utm_medium=email
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The Iranian election is currently in turmoil. Both Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi are claiming to be ahead in the vote. Preliminary results from the presidential vote show Ahmadinejad leading; Iranian Election Commission chief Kamran Daneshjoo held a press conference at 11:45 p.m. local time and announced that with some 20 percent of the votes counted, the president was leading with 3,462,548 votes (69.04 percent), while his main challenger, Mousavi, had 1, 425,678 (28.42 percent). Sources tell STRATFOR that these preliminary numbers pertain to the votes from the smaller towns and villages, where the president has considerable influence, as he has distributed a lot of cash to the poor.
However, Iran�s state-run Press TV is saying that only 10 million of 24 million votes, or around 42 percent of the vote, have been counted. At the same time, they are also claiming that 69 percent of the vote has been counted. Obviously the numbers are not adding up, and the agencies themselves appear to be in chaos.
Prior to the announcement of the results, Mousavi held a press conference in which he said he was the winner of the election. The opposition camp is greatly concerned about fraud, and STRATFOR has been told that Mousavi has vowed to resist any fraud, even if it entails taking to the streets. This means there is considerable risk of unrest should Ahmadinejad emerge as the winner. But so far there is no evidence that the government is mobilizing security forces to deal with any such eventuality. |
Should be interesting to watch. |
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Chambertin
Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Location: Gunsan
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The Great Wall of Whiner
Joined: 24 Jan 2003
Location: Middle Land
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| Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 11:49 pm Post subject: |
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Already looks like there were problems with the voting, such as people being shut out of polling stations.
I think 60%+ is a bit high for him to gain re-election, given the wall to wall people in the capital just a few days ago.
But if the rural turnout was high, who knows... maybe it was mostly legit. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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Julius
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 7:59 am Post subject: |
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We don't know if it was truly free and fair, if there was vote rigging or voter intimidation, etc. Was the opposition allowed freedom and resources to campaign? etc.
But if the Iranaians have truly elected dinnerjacket again then they deserve all that they get. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:48 am Post subject: |
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Ahmadinejad reelected under cloud of fraud
By Juan Cole
June 13, 2009 | A few thousand Iranian young people demonstrated in Iran on Saturday morning to protest the announcement by that country's Interior Ministry that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won a second term by an overwhelming margin of 63 percent. The president's rivals decried ballot fraud and many observers saw the results as a hard-liner coup. If the government really has descended to the level of fixing the presidential elections, it is a sign of deep insecurity and fear of change, as Tehran is challenged by the Obama administration's outreach and by reformist stirrings among youth and women.
Obama administration officials were privately casting doubt on the announced vote tallies. They pointed out that it was unlikely that Ahmadinejad had defeated his chief opponent, Mir-Hossein Moussavi, by a margin of 57 percent, in Moussavi's own home city of Tabriz. Nor is it plausible, as claimed, that Ahmadinejad won a majority of votes in the capital, Tehran, from which he hails. The final tally also gave only 320,000 votes to the other reformist candidate, Mehdi Karoubi, who had helped force Ahmadinejad into a runoff election when he ran in 2005. It seems odd that he get less than 1 percent of the votes in this round. Karoubi, an ethnic Lur from Iran's west, was even alleged to have done poorly in those provinces.
The final vote counts alleged for cities and provinces, even more so than the landslide claimed by the incumbent nationally, strongly suggest a last-minute and clumsy fraud. A carefully planned theft of the election would at least have conceded Tabriz to Moussavi and the rural western Iranian villages to Karoubi.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei quickly recognized Ahmadinejad's victory, hailing a remarkable turnout of 80 percent of eligible voters. With the backing of the clerical supreme leader, Ahmadinejad's victory is unassailable in the theocratic Iranian system, where Shiite clerics hold ultimate power. In the past decade, despite occasional demonstrations launched by students, the regime has easily been able to repress dissent with right-wing popular militias and other pro-conservative paramilitaries. They also succeeded in excluding reformists from political power by denying them the right to run for office on the grounds that they do not pass an ideological litmus test. The repressive abilities of the hard-liners should not be underestimated, despite the public anger over a possibly stolen election.
The primary challenger to incumbent Ahmadinejad, former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Moussavi, was widely thought to have a number of crucial constituencies behind him. Urban youth and women, who had elected a reformist president in 1997 and 2001, showed enthusiasm for Moussavi. He also showed an ability to bring out big crowds in his native Azerbaijan, where a Turkic language, Azeri, is spoken rather than Persian. (Azeris constitute about a third of the Iranian population.) It was expected that if the turnout was large, that would help Moussavi.
Quantcast
But not only did Iran's Electoral Commission announce that Ahmadinejad had won almost two-thirds of the general vote, it also gave him big majorities in major cities such as Tehran and Tabriz (the latter is the capital of Azerbaijan). These results seemed unbelievable not only to Moussavi supporters but to many professional Iran observers. Although candidates in Iran's presidential elections are closely vetted, and only four out of hundreds of applicants were allowed to run this time, once the candidates were certified the elections have been relatively free and fair in the past. If proved true, electoral fraud on the scale being charged by Ahmadinejad's rivals risks further undermining the legitimacy of the regime in the eyes of the public.
Less was at stake in these elections than many outsiders assumed, however, since the Iranian presidency is weak and most important policy is set by Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei (his title is the giveaway). The election was mostly about style, rather than substance. Mir-Hossein Moussavi complained that Ahmadinejad's bizarre downplaying of the Holocaust had made Iran a laughingstock, and that the incumbent had dictatorial tendencies. But he expressed support for the Palestinians. He objected to the cost of ramping up Iran's civilian nuclear energy research program, though he said he was committed to continuing it at a slower pace. He offered to negotiate with American President Barack Obama if the latter was found to be acting in good faith. But most of his differences with Ahmadinejad were on domestic policy, including his advocacy of more personal liberties, more rights for women, and a freer media environment, including private television channels.
The outcome of the election therefore changes little for the Obama administration. The outstanding issues between Iran and the U.S. mainly have to do with Iran's support for the Palestinians against Israel and with Iran's nuclear enrichment program, which Washington fears could ultimately be put to dual use and eventuate in a nuclear warhead. Those two outstanding issues would have remained no matter who won the presidency. Obama is determined to deal with them by undercutting Iran on the Palestine issue by making strides toward a Palestinian state, by avoiding military confrontation, and by direct talks over better safeguards that Iran's nuclear program remains purely civilian in character. These policies are the most promising ones for achieving U.S. and NATO goals with regard to Iran, and should be pursued regardless of who holds the weak and ineffectual office of president in Tehran. |
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/06/13/iran/index.html
I don't know if we can trust Cole on if the election was rigged or not. But Obama's already dealing with them appropriately, and anyways, this election is largely for a figurehead position. The power is with the clerics (less some domestic economic matters). |
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Chambertin
Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Location: Gunsan
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| Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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This will get me in LOTS of trouble. However I was a McCain supporter from the start.
More power to Mousavi for attempting to do (or pulling off ) a McCain.
While I have no idea what will happen I am suspecting he is in it for the cash only
Here�s why.
McCain ran in 2000, had full support and in many opinions would have won, but suddenly vanished just in time for W to get the nomination.
Fast forward to 2008, sure he isn�t as spunky and the Republicans have lost serious popularity but McCain is still out in front and a darn fine contender. Then he picks this ditz former beauty queen for his vice president who�s only popularity points are that most consider her a MILF and Tina Fey does a better job being her than she can.
Self tank for Obama payout.
I�m starting to think that all the hype about the election for Mousavi was a ploy to bait up the public for his large payout and swift sweep into obscurity. Three days ago the population was ready for blood, and about every news service predicted a win by Mousavi. In fact PBS affiliated news feeds had predicted civil war before the day was over. Then no win, lots of accusations about corruption but there hasn�t been report of a single incident.
To me this stinks on both sides. Nice to see modern democracy at work again.
Also I�m very bitter about this., it probably shows.
Yet another prophet of change bowing down to the old regime. |
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phoneboothface
Joined: 26 Apr 2009
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Julius wrote: |
We don't know if it was truly free and fair, if there was vote rigging or voter intimidation, etc. Was the opposition allowed freedom and resources to campaign? etc.
But if the Iranaians have truly elected dinnerjacket again then they deserve all that they get. |
Why dinnerjacket? I want to laugh. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Julius wrote: |
| We don't know if it was truly free and fair, if there was vote rigging or voter intimidation, etc. Was the opposition allowed freedom and resources to campaign? etc. |
Why should they be held to a higher standard than America?
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| But if the Iranaians have truly elected dinnerjacket again then they deserve all that they get. |
I'm a dinner jacket, too. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:28 am Post subject: |
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Protests Flare in Tehran as Opposition Disputes Vote
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Mr. Moussavi�s defiance seemed to fuel street resistance by his supporters � a coalition including women, young people, intellectuals and members of the moderate clerical establishment � who had united in opposition to Mr. Ahmadinejad�s erratic economic stewardship, confrontational foreign policy and crackdown on social freedoms.
�Death to the coup d��tat!� chanted a surging crowd of several thousand protesters, many of whom wore Mr. Moussavi�s signature bright green campaign colors, as they marched in central Tehran on Saturday afternoon. �Death to the dictator!�
Farther down the street, clusters of young men hurled rocks at a phalanx of riot police officers, and the police used their batons to beat back protesters. There were reports of demonstrations in other major Iranian cities as well.
The authorities closed universities in Tehran, blocked cellphone transmissions and access to Facebook and some other Web sites, and for a second day shut down text-messaging services.
As night settled in, the streets in northern Tehran that recently had been the scene of pre-election euphoria were lit by the flames of trash fires and blocked by tipped trash bins and at least one charred bus. Young men ran through the streets throwing paving stones at shop windows, and the police pursued them.
The turmoil on Saturday followed an extraordinary night in which the Iranian state news agency announced that Mr. Ahmadinejad had won by a vast margin just two hours after the polls closed. The timing alone provoked deep suspicion here, because the authorities have never before announced election results until the following morning. Mr. Moussavi also announced Friday night that he believed he had won by a wide margin.
Mr. Moussavi also complained about irregularities and unfairness in the election, saying there had been a lack of ballots in many areas and that some of his campaign offices had been attacked and his Web sites shut down.
The official results prompted further skepticism, in part because Mr. Ahmadinejad was said to have won by large margins even in his opponents� hometowns. Mr. Rezai�s hometown, for example, gave him less than a tenth of Mr. Ahmadinejad�s total there, the Interior Ministry said. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 7:44 am Post subject: |
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| Did they use Diebold machines? |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 8:27 am Post subject: |
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| phoneboothface wrote: |
| Julius wrote: |
We don't know if it was truly free and fair, if there was vote rigging or voter intimidation, etc. Was the opposition allowed freedom and resources to campaign? etc.
But if the Iranaians have truly elected dinnerjacket again then they deserve all that they get. |
Why dinnerjacket? I want to laugh. |
Are you asking why he's called dinnerjacket? It's a memory cue for pronoucning his name. His name sounds like "I'm a dinner jacket". |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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There's a good site on Huffington Post where Nico Pitney is Live-Blogging from Teheran (Saturday's is archived, Sunday's is still up.) It includes links to other places and also videos: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
Noteworthy bits:
There are posts about German, American and British networks being blocked.
"Rezaei, the conservative candidate and fmr head of Revolutionary Guards, apparently publishes open letter strongly contesting iran election."
"Never thought I would see [Ataollah] Mohajerani (former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance) on BBC Persian TV talking about how 'velayat faghih' (Supreme Leader) is not free from making mistakes, and he can be replaced because of dishonesty! Everything seems to point that Khamenei's days are numbered."
Fareed Zakaria has an interesting panel discussion with Reza Aslan, Afshin Molavi and Nicholas Burns here:
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2009/06/14/gps.panel.on.iran.cnn
As the OP said, this could be a very interesting development. Very. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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For people who feel like getting into a debate, here are two views from the site posted above:
(6:21 PM ET)
In support of the administration's current actions is Patrick Disney, the Acting Legislative Director at the National Iranian American Council (you can read his full post here):
Before we Americans come rushing onto the scene with an offer of help for the process of democratization in Iran, we need to be certain that the parties on the ground actually welcome our involvement, and that it won't in fact do more harm than good.
Human rights defenders in Iran are always the first to speak up in support of greater transparency and political openness in the Iranian system. Their commitment to their cause is beyond measure, and the events over the next few days will determine just how much progress they have been able to make. But these brave activists have also made it abundantly clear to policymakers in the West that we have to be very careful about how we get involved in the affairs of their country.
For now, the Obama administration is just taking a step back and assessing the situation, and rightly so--at the moment, the only certainty in this entire ordeal is that the more accurate information everyone has, the better. But the Obama administration is also making it perfectly clear that, regardless of the outcome of the next few days, they are committed to engage in direct diplomacy with the Iranian government.
At this point, that's the best we, as Americans, can do.
Taking the other view is a reader named Sohrab, who graciously agreed to write up his case in a matter of minutes (thanks again Sohrab):
The Obama Administration should speak up on behalf of the millions of embattled Iranians confronting the IRI to demand fairness and rule of law. As numerous observers have indicated, the "re-election" of Ahmadinejad was an absolute fraud. Numerous voting irregularities were reported, including severe ballot shortages in major urban centers and voter intimidation. In response to Mousavi supporters' legitimate anger, the IRI has resorted to the brutal repression widely reported in the mainstream media and on the blogosphere.
Throughout his campaign, Mr. Obama promised a "principled" approach to Iran. Showing solidarity with the protesters in the streets is, indeed, a matter of principle. Mr. Obama enjoys a great deal of moral authority in the Middle East and among Iranians - more so, perhaps, than any US President in recent memory. He should seize on the "fierce urgency of now" to take a resolute stand at this critical conjuncture. Doing so would not damage the credibility or legitimacy of the protesters, as some claim. After all, the students themselves have been heard to chant "Obama save us!" at police stations. The President simply cannot ignore this cry for help.
Sen. Lieberman seems to agree with the second view (12:01PM ET) |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:09 pm Post subject: |
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THEHRAN a political coup
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According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, in the early hours after voting had ended, the Interior Ministry had called Mr. Mousavi�s campaign headquarters to inform them that Mr. Mousavi would be the winner and, therefore, Mr. Mousavi must prepare a victory statement. Mr. Mousavi was, however, asked by the Ministry not to boast too much, in order not to upset Mr. Ahmadinejad�s supporters. Many of the president�s supporters are among the ranks of the Basij militia, and thus armed.
According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was also informed of the developments. He also recommended a �good management� of the victory statement, meaning not boasting greatly about the victory, because that would be in Iran�s national interests and stability.
At the same time, the reformist newspapers were also informed that they can prepare their Saturday edition to declare Mr. Mousavi the winner, but were not allowed to use the word pirouzi (victory) in their articles, in order not to upset Mr. Ahmadinejad�s supporters. One reformist newspaper prepared its front page with the title, �People took back the flag of their country [from Mr. Ahmadinejad].�
But, just a few hours later, a center that had been set up by Mr. Mousavi in Gheytarieh (in northern Tehran) for monitoring the election and vote counting, was attacked by armed security agents. They ransacked the center, destroyed computers, and attacked the staff. Supporters of Mr. Mousavi intervened and arrested 8 security agents. The police was called to take them to prison, but the police released the attackers.
According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, the central headquarters of Mr. Mousavi�s campaign was also surrounded by security forces, as was the Interior Ministry building. Then, new data began to be released by the Ministry, indicating that Mr. Ahmadinejad had won the elections decisively. |
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