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dmbfan
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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 Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:56 pm Post subject: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts |
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Well....not that I want it to happen, it does sound like a possibility.
Be sure to look at map on the bottom of the link.......
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
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By ANDREW OSBORN
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media
In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."
Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.
Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."
Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.
Mr. Panarin's r�sum� includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.
The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."
In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."
At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.
Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.
The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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I was wondering if somebody was going to post this..
Mother Jones, of all organizations, discussed this on their blog:
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Over at the Washington Monthly, Steve Benen takes note of an increasingly popular scholar in Russia named Igor Panarin who has been predicting the demise of the United States for years. Apparently the Kremlin is a huge fan and is putting him on state television as regularly as possible. Here are some of this thoughts on the old U.S. of A.:
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."
...Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
None of that puts this Panarin character too far outside the current American mainstream. But his description of America's denouement definitely does. It's straight loony tunes:
"He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts -- the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong."
I don't think the South ("with its Hispanics") is going to rise again, to say nothing of the Native Americans in the "poorer central states" and the Canadian-sympathizers in the north. (That said, I always thought that "Minnesota Nice" business was awfully suspicious.) We Americans simply don't consider secession and violence, both of which the Kremlin must deal with regularly in Georgia and Chechnya, as solutions to political problems. This country let the idiot son of a political dynasty steal the White House without rising up. Roughly 150 years before that, it fought an unbelievably bloody war to keep two parts of the country that didn't particularly like one another under the same flag. We don't do break ups.
But just in case Igor is right, I went ahead and chartered our borders. I look forward to someday living in Berkeley, capital of Liberalstan. |
http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/new_united_states.jpg
I suppose this is just a classic case of projection. |
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dmbfan
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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Well, there is a lot I would like to say on the matter. But, it is rather difficult to put it down on PC screen. I need some time to think this one out.
dmbfan |
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Kimbop
Joined: 31 Mar 2008
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Wow, as your attorney, I advise you to disregard this utter nonsense. |
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dmbfan
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't think the South ("with its Hispanics") is going to rise again |
LOL! This makes me think of the all the fanatical Texans I know/knew. They are so proud to be Texans and what not, claiming they don't need the U.S. but he U.S. needs them.
But, I would ask them................."So, why are you allowing the people who Texas won its independence from to take over the land again?"
dmbfan
Last edited by dmbfan on Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:10 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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dmbfan
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Wow, as your attorney, I advise you to disregard this utter nonsense. |
It's possible......you have to admit it.
Nations/Empires rise and fall.
dmbfan |
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Canada will grab a group of Northern states |
 we'll take Wisconsin and Minnesota for sure, throw in the Dakotas if ya want, Washington State would be nice but not if that means Idaho as well. Michigan could be on the table if Detroit isn't. |
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samcheokguy
Joined: 02 Nov 2008
Location: Samcheok G-do
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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| the US is overdue for a fall. In fact most countries have several. It must be remembered that ethnos usually can outlast a govt. As the US is usually considered to have a poor sense of ethnic-self awareness, many non-americans feel that in case of crisis the US will fall apart. This is the whole 'american civil war 2' scenario so popular it hypothetical history. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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| The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. |
I think we have now found the definitive answer to the question: Why did the Soviet Union collapse?
Should this guy turn out to be right: A warning to imperialistic Canadians: Keep your damn hands off the Midwest! |
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Jandar
Joined: 11 Jun 2008
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dmbfan
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 6:59 pm Post subject: |
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| we'll take Wisconsin and Minnesota for sure, throw in the Dakotas if ya want, Washington State would be nice but not if that means Idaho as well. Michigan could be on the table if Detroit isn't |
.
I would be worried about Montana. The state holds the most nuclear weapons in the country.
Hell, I'd settle there.
Great weather.
Great scenery.
Great skiing.
Great food.
Great bud.
dmbfan |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 7:12 pm Post subject: |
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New England (also called New Britain or Atlantica) � an expanded version including not only Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut (although omitting the Connecticut suburbs of New York City), but also the Canadian Atlantic provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as the Gasp� Peninsula of Quebec. Capital: Boston.
Red Sox Nation, baby!!  |
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Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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What a great way to sell books to the Russian population. I think the author is right about certain things - just decay in general.
However, the power of a state to keep things together is over-riding. Take a continent like Africa with many failed states that SHOULD break apart to more natural lines (and not the colonial lines imposed upon it years ago)...but they keep existing in their status-quo.
Even Russia didn't exactly 'fall apart' as to what is it projecting onto the U.S. The author is projecting some weirdass 'free-for-all'...but the reality is you have millions of gun-toting Americans who are way too suspicious of the U.S. government let alone a Chinese government or Mexican government to take on control of them.
I also found it real odd the professor thought California would go to China..first off, the Chinese influence and population while certainly there, is rather SMALL in overall influence...Mexico dominates California if there was any one non-caucasian entity to say that does.
Last edited by Tiger Beer on Mon Dec 29, 2008 8:04 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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Russia is attempting to distract its populace from the severe economic problems it itself is facing (what with it being an energy export-based economy while oil revenue is plummeting).
"See folks, America is about to go under and break apart!! At least we don't live over there, because they're screwed!! Hail Putin!!" |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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Have any of you seen the Russia channel? I don't know the proper name... I saw while on vacation in Thailand last year. It was creepy as all hell. Featured prominently was a dude (I think I placed his accent from Ontario) who wandered around a city showcasing how modern, safe, efficient and free of corruption it was. That was all fine, but every sentence started with "The western media" or "The United States". The obsession was bizarre. It has become a frequently used inside joke with my better half. If that is how they hide their fixation to foreigners I can only imagine how extreme the domestic media is.
Anyhow, he is projecting. Russia will have a muslim majority by 2040 or so. I'm sure that will go over well with their non-muslim population, who don't seem all that fond of their mohammedan countrymen.
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2006-02/2006-02-28-voa77.cfm?CFID=84726042&CFTOKEN=44702470 |
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