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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005 Location: Next to a River
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Posted: Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:23 pm Post subject: Is Gaza/ West Bank a feasible long term state? |
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Just doing some reading in my holidays, looking at different issues and thought about this after looking at the map of Israel and the discussions about the wall dividing it from the West Bank.
I looked at the distance and wondered if like Pakistan in 1947, whether it would in the long term become unfeasible and probably result in the creation of two states.
I am providing some back ground.
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India�s partition and the creation of Pakistan in 1947 are among the major events in twentieth century history. The British Raj came to an end amidst unprecedented violence and social dislocation. An estimated half a million people perished while seventeen million people were forced to move across the freshly demarcated frontiers of India and Pakistan. The blood-stained legacy of 1947 has cast an enduring shadow on inter-state relations and domestic politics in post-colonial South Asia. There are few burning issues in the subcontinent which cannot be traced, directly or indirectly, to the fateful moment when the British struck the partitioner�s axe. India and Pakistan have fought two full-scale wars over the former north Indian princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. An undeclared war, also over Kashmir, following nuclear tests by both countries in May 1998, resulted in a deadly standoff in the Kargil heights during the summer of 1999. An earlier war in 1971, preceded by a civil war in which Muslims slaughtered Muslims, led to Indian intervention and the breaking away of Bangladesh. |
Now West Pakistan and East Pakistan were divided by distance, though governed the same. Time and distance lead to a creation of two states. One is Pakistan and the other is Bangladesh.
Looking at the seperation between the two areas of the Palestinians without a connected border, I wonder whether the two regions will themselves create two states. The Hamas, PA divide can be a short time issue, but in the long term, say 20 - 30 years, would they simply go thier separate ways due to simply a lack of cohesion.
What do you think? |
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Trevor
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2009 7:24 pm Post subject: |
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It's a moot point because there's not going to be a Palestinian state while Israel exists as an "ethnic democracy," the greatest misnomer since "the Patriot Act."
Between 20 to 50 years from now, the United States is going to lose its foothold in the region due to economic instability. There is going to be a nasty, nasty war. My best guess is China, perhaps in collusion with Russia, is going to pick up the pieces afterwards, and greater Israel and what we now call Palestine will be lumped together as an international zone.
It's silly to ask if Palestine can be a viable state because Israel clearly will not let it under th current power structures. Is the moon made of green cheese? |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005 Location: Next to a River
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Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 12:26 am Post subject: |
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Interesting point but I am not sure thats completely true. Its also difficult to really make any judgements about the area as it does seem to act in unforeseen ways. |
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Trevor
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 4:03 am Post subject: |
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Its also difficult to really make any judgements about the area as it does seem to act in unforeseen ways. |
Have you read the bible? Ottoman history? The region has been going in very predictable circles for 3,500 years. The Jews have never held a stable government in that region for more than 75 years, even in biblical times. Lots of people don't realize that. Were now at 60 years with the current regime. My best bet is they are going to tie their record, or maybe slightly surpass it, before being exiled again, as they were in the Babylonian Exile 2500 years ago.
One thing I'll tell you for sure, is that the power sturcture is not going to stay the same indefinitely. It never has and it never will. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005 Location: Next to a River
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Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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My best bet is they are going to tie their record, or maybe slightly surpass it, before being exiled again, as they were in the Babylonian Exile 2500 years ago.
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There are a few differences between that period and now. Technology being one of them. This time that area might not be livable afterwards as I don't see the Israelis "going quietly into that dark night".
Its one of the things that has always bothered me, do the muslims hate the idea of Jews not actually being second class people and supposed victims of Gods wrath more than they like the idea of a undestroyed palestine.
One of the disputes that doesn't seem to be raised much is that the Koran seems to describe the Jews lack of country as being due to Gods wrath. The fact that in this century they do have a country and supposedly strong relationships with certain countries does negate some of the Korans writings and must upset some conservative muslims.
(Actually I may be misconstruing what was actually written in the Koran and simply age old beliefs in the Middle east) Post editted. |
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Safron

Joined: 05 Feb 2007 Location: portland, or
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Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:30 am Post subject: |
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Israel's not going to be forced anywhere this time. The reason why is simple - Nuclear Weapons - and the will to use them if they are forced into exile. |
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Trevor
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 5:06 am Post subject: |
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It is only a matter of time before someone else gets a nuclear weapon -- or another more technologically advanced weapon.
You don't think nukes are going to be the last WMD that the human race will invent DO YA?
Safron wrote: |
Israel's not going to be forced anywhere this time. The reason why is simple - Nuclear Weapons - and the will to use them if they are forced into exile. |
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Safron

Joined: 05 Feb 2007 Location: portland, or
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Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 5:22 am Post subject: |
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So Trevor, the response to Iran or any other of Israels enemies that gets a nuclear or other WMD will be to surrender the state of Israel, and move somewhere else? |
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