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I'm With You
Joined: 01 Sep 2011
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 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:45 am Post subject: 10 Years - What Will Change in Korean EFL by 2024? |
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Yes, 10 years went by fast.
But what's the long-term prognosis for Korean EFL? Will we still have jobs here in 10 years?
Will there still be a demand for native speaking Canadians, Americans, British and South Africans, or will the Korean English teachers, at all levels, have finally taken over the reins by then?
Will forums like Dave's exist in 10 years? Or will they, disappear in favor of other social media that help link people with work?
And technology - how will that affect our jobs? Will advanced translation software take over, eliminating many of our positions as proof readers or translators - maybe as TEFL instructors?
For university teachers, will it no longer be enough to only teach EFL classes as opposed to specific content in a certain field - e.g., Philosophy, Literature, Sociology or Anthropology, etc.? The the Doctorate finally become the most basic currency by then for which foreign teachers can access such jobs?
Will North Korea have demolished Seoul with their artillery, or will the two Koreas have united by 2024? If tensions still exist, will they be so strained that native English speakers no longer want to risk their lives to come and teach in Korea, even if there are still positions open?
But back to my earlier question, though: Will we even have jobs here in 10 years?, that's the question I think we should be asking ourselves.
Is it in our interest to obtain master's degrees in linguistics or doctorates in TESOL if the TEFL landscape changes? Will it be wise to drop $25,000 on a master's degree or $40,000 on a doctorate if the entire game changes within the next 10 years?
2024 - where do you see Korean EFL by then?
10 years goes by fast. |
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creeper1
Joined: 30 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah. You are right. 10 years does go fast. And nothing much changes!
1. We will very much still have jobs in 10 years. There is no worry about that.
2. The Korean teachers will remain unable to teach English. Demand for native speakers will continue and grow.
3. Dave's esl forum will exist. World traveler will be complaining about how difficult the Korean language is.
4. Technology lacks a human touch. We will work with technology but it won't replace us.
5. An advanced degree is completely unnecessary.
Seriously man, no-one knows the future and it is kinda ridiculous to ask questions like you did.
The above are my guesses though. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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Creeper1, seeing as how you are almost 40, aren't you a little old to still be trolling Dave's? So pathetic, man.
Yes, Korean is extremely difficult. Most people don't realize that. Almost no one who tries their hand at it will advance beyond the beginner level. Straight up fact.
Can you tell us why you are posting from China on a Korean message board in an antagonistic way? You don't contribute anything of value to this forum, and you will be trolling on here polluting the board for years to come. (I won't.)
| misher wrote: |
The ESL/EFL industry won't go anywhere. There will always be jobs its just that they will pay at a fraction of what they paid 15-20 years ago.
Employers will demand more for less because they can and with the ease of getting an MA TESOL these days, its just a race to the bottom as far as I'm concerned. It's a great side job or career choice for people that want to remain single and travel but if you're thinking about family, your spouse better have some earning potential.
Japan is a great country to see where EFL is going, especially in Seoul. Starting salary for noobs is now 190,000-220,000 when it used to be 250,000 ten years ago. University English teaching now requires an MA and publications just to get an interview. And that is just to teach conversational English and TEOIC like anyone would already be doing in XYZ hagwon for 25-30 contact hours a week.
Sooner or later you'll see uni jobs in Seoul not giving housing. Then the contact hours will increase and camps REQUIRED over summer breaks for no additional pay. The writing is on the wall. Just sayin' |
| youtuber wrote: |
If you wonder what Korea's ESL industry will be like in a few years, look no further than Japan.
Japan was once a sweet place to work. High wages because there weren't many teachers.
But how did Japan deal with the constant thirst for more teachers? How were wages driven down?
Answer: they now hire teachers from the Phillipines, India, Germany, ect.
So the supply is more than adequately filled. And thus wages are driven down.
The same will probably happen in Korea. Why wouldn't it? Anything to save a buck. |
| Francis-Pax wrote: |
I taught in Korea for five years and I possess a MA in TESL/TEFL from University if Birmingham. Furthermore, I am married to a Korean. All that being said, I remained steadfast in my conviction that South Korea is not that good of a deal anymore. With exception of a few places, most of the EFL jobs offered are only entry-level class teaching positions.
I love Korea a lot, but it is highly unlikely that I will teach there again in the near future. The pay is too low and teachers are having to endure greater and greater forms of disrespect. I personally witnessed this deterioration between 2004-2009.
With EFL salaries around the world, Korea is not the best deal. There are many other places where the same amount money can be made. It is something to think about for people considering Korea for mainly financial reasons.
The golden age of teaching English in Korea is over. These people want to work teachers too hard for too little. |
| kimchipig wrote: |
| I recently saw my old job advertised at less than I was making doing the same thing in 2001 and there was no longer the free apartment. Simply not worth it anymore. |
| GENO123 wrote: |
An MA (even in TESOL) + exp will not protect anyone anymore.
Actually I don't even know what the fuss about university jobs anyway. How much do they pay anyway?
Even if they say 12- 16 hours you'll be working much more than that for zero compensation correcting papers, homework and doing administrative stuff along with excessive paperwork . Vacations? You will be spending them making reports and doing paper work as well. |
| Quote: |
| In the 12 years I've been here the cost of living has increased greatly (especially in terms of housing), yet my salary has not increased one dime in 12 years. This is despite the fact that I have furthered my education quite a great deal in during my tenure here. |
Last edited by World Traveler on Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:23 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:21 pm Post subject: |
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There will still be demand for English in 10 years time. But, what kind of market it will be is anyone's guess. Japan's economy has been crap for over 20 years and there are still jobs for native speakers. But conditions are not so great either. The 1980's and early 1990's were probably a great time to be there and make money. The rest of the 90's and into the early 2000's were probably not as good, but still ok. (This time saw wages stay the same and not rise even as other costs were going up.) The rest of the 2000's to now saw wages decline in some cases and the market shrivel up even more to the point that it's extremely competitive to get bad jobs.
How the market goes here depends very much on the economy. Many Japanese, I suspect, wouldn like to learn English more, but just can't afford it like before. If the economy recovers, Korea could have another good run in it. I suspect not like the last decade, but better than the last few years. In the last decade, Koreans were awash with money and didn't mind spending it. Demand was high and not so many were coming over.
If young Americans get job offers back home coming out of college like they did pre 2009, there will be less of those types coming over. Though more do know of this as an option. I suspect there will be less grads coming over, but more than before. I also suspect that South Africans will still come over here in droves. Not sure if that is good or bad. Market will be more flooded than before 2009, but less than the past few years. As a North American, some jobs might be easier to snag.
If the economy doesn't recover or gets really bad again, well, we already know what will happen and what was happening from 2009 to 2012ish. I do get the feeling there has been some improvement in the sense that some jobs seem to be opening up and some wages listed on here are higher.
So, in a nutshell, Korea's best days as an ESL gig are behind her. But, given an economic recovery (IE US unempoyment rate of 4 to 5 %), Korea's got enough room in her for another good mini run. Let's hope in 10 years time, you have an exit plan. Boom or no boom, Korea will eventually cut the perks and pay for us to some degree.
At the end of this year, I will celebrate my eigth anniversary here. In two and half years, it will be my tenth anniversary. I could not have anticipated during my first couple of years what Korea became and just how different and suddenly the market had changed overnight. My point being is that none us can predict with certainty wjhat will happen during the next ten years. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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Probably there will be a continued gradual decline.
| kimchipig wrote: |
| If making money is your goal, Korea is not remotely as good as it was 15 years ago. Not even close to what we made in 1995 or even in 2000. I can see the salaries posted on Dave's and I saw the cost of living in Seoul what I was there this year. I have seen the deterioration in contracts being offered. |
A recent development in China: As of now, English is worth 25% of the university entrance exam score. The government announced a plan to lower that to 20% in the future (and eventually make it 0%). I know a school owner in China. She has thirty less students this year compared to last year (just because of that 5% reduction). Park Geun Hye said she is going to reduce the number of English listening questions on the 수능 (and also the 수능 is going to focus more on Korean history, which will make young Koreans more nationalist and xenophobic I'm sure).
The Korean government is spending less money on English teachers in public schools. There are cutbacks happening big time.
Spending in the private sector for English is going down (while it is going up for math). Now only one third of private educational spending is for English.
Koreans are getting better at English. Much better. More have been overseas.
In the past it was possible to make an absolute killing in ESL. Now, that doesn't happen no matter what country you go to.
Technology changed the game. People can get a Skype tutor from the Philippines for not that much money.
I asked a high school class of twenty eight how they are studying English. Five have Filipino Skype tutor. That shocked me! Not a single one has a private Western tutor. Most no longer go to English language hagwons, though many did in the past (but many learned from Korean teachers only, and not a native teacher). Probably free English learner materials on YouTube and elsewhere are making a difference too. I just don't see how the field of ESL for a native teacher won't continue to decline. I don't think it's a good idea to encourage others to get into this over saturated (and gradually worsening) line of work. I don't think it's a good future long term career. It was, but it is less so today. |
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nicwr2002
Joined: 17 Aug 2011
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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| In 10 years English will be forgotten and Chinese hagwon chains will dominate the landscape. Not just in Korea, but the whole world. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't think so. I think English will be the global language, but because locals will have a higher level, wages for Western teachers won't be so hot. Maybe they will be more focused on kids too. Translation technology will probably mean translators and editors will be paid less. For teachers, higher credentials will be required to get less than what was given to hugely unqualified Westerners 20-30 years ago. |
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Mr. Pink
Joined: 21 Oct 2003
Location: China
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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| nicwr2002 wrote: |
| In 10 years English will be forgotten and Chinese hagwon chains will dominate the landscape. Not just in Korea, but the whole world. |
Not going to happen. The amount of people learning English in China would absolutely shock you.
World Traveler: Why didn't you put the poster you quoted as saying they didn't increase their salary at all in 12 years. I find it absolutely absurd that someone would stay at a job where they do not get at least an inflationary raise every year. My last 6 years in Korea I went from 2.5mil to 3.5mil a month and can only guess I'd be at around 4.5ish a month if I had stayed at that job (I believe the cap would have been 5mil a month).
China is where the next big ESL rush is going to happen. It has already started. The RMB is getting stronger every year, and demand is growing. A decent ESL gig here can get you about 25,000 RMB plus apartment. That's around $4000 US a month...way better than most gigs in Korea. The money one can make from privates is nuts. I am satisfied with what my contract pays me but my first year when I was making a lot less I was making around $2000 a month from privates and that was with only 3 clients...crazy money to be had here if you can handle the pollution, dirt and culture.
I get asked to do privates all the time and say no because I need a break when I get home from work. Typical rates are 40-60 an hour but I have known people to get $100 an hour.
Korea will be fine in 10 years because the massive wave will come to China. Korea will need to increase wages/benefits or they won't be able to compete. Japan has those who are goo goo eyed over everything Japanese and therefore people go there and make less money but they are doing it for other reasons. Also Japan is a 1st world nation, some people just can't handle living in a developing country. Korea is a really hard country to live in because of the xenophobia the people have and the inequality that exists for foreigners. By contrast, China has 50+ people groups and has a lot of diversity so that for the most part they don't care about foreigners in any of the same ways Korea seems to. Korea is a small country that doesn't have issues that countries like China have to focus on, so it goes on to focus on foreigners...
Lastly: World Traveler - Korean might be hard to learn but reading it is one of the easiest things about it. That makes the language a lot more accessible than say, Chinese. As someone who has lived in both places, I think Korean is easier for me than Chinese is in both reading and very much in speaking! |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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Great post. I agree with most of it, and it contains a lot of useful information.
However, I'll have to respectfully disagree with you about the last bit (or least the experience of myself and many others was different).
| redaxe wrote: |
| I studied Mandarin Chinese and I find Korean about three or four times harder, I kid you not. |
| misher wrote: |
| The only thing harder about chinese is the rote memorization and usage of characters. Everything else about Korean is 10x harder for me. |
| tomato wrote: |
| I have been here for 10 years, and I have met 2 wegukin's who could even compose a complete sentence. |
| IconsFanatic wrote: |
| I felt learning Chinese and Japanese were relatively easy, and Korean infinitely harder. |
| Observe wrote: |
| The truth is -- Foreigners do not speak Korean-- if you doubt me, count how many you know who speak it more than 'hi' 'thanks' and 'bye bye' level. |
Chinese (Difficulty Rating: 9.8/10)
The easiest of the three is Chinese (which is fortunate because it's the one we're all going to need to know). I'm serious about this. Its grammar is the same SVO used in English, for the most part. In general, each character has only one sound, whereas each character in Japanese can have two or more sounds. Most regions where Chinese is spoken use simplified characters for writing, which are easier to learn. Some people may find the tones intimidating, and they are definitely not an artificial construct, but it is possible to speak Chinese entirely through mimicry, without being able to write a single tone. After three years at Hong Kong International School, I was completely ignorant of the tones, yet the Chinese seemed able to understand me well enough. Some people assume that reading Chinese is difficult because it uses characters exclusively, without any phonetic alphabet. Japanese uses almost as many characters as Chinese, but unlike Chinese, Japanese generally assigns multiple sound values to each character, so the amount that you have to learn in Japanese is probably greater.
Japanese (Difficulty Rating: 9.9/10)
I'd say that Japanese is the second most difficult language on Earth. A case could be made for it being the most difficult, but unlike Korean, there are many fluent speakers of Japanese who are not racially Japanese, so there is a lot of living proof that Japanese is possible for non-natives. Japanese has historically been viewed as extremely difficult, but due to the prominence of Japan on the world stage, many linguists have written extremely detailed, helpful books on the Japanese language. Almost all universities, so it would seem, offer Japanese courses, these days. Japanese may be very difficult, but there is an extensive support community for Japanese learners. Learners outside of Japan have access to a wide range of Japanese exports that can be useful for practice purposes. Phonetically-speaking, Japanese is extraordinarily simple, with only five vowels and a very limited number of consonants. There is only one ending consonant in Japanese -- 'n.' For this reason, it is not as easy to mistake one Japanese word for another.
Korean (Difficulty Rating: 11/10)
Korean is impossible. How do I know this? I go to Yonsei University's Korean Language Institute. I study Korean for four hours a day, five days a week (when I'm not on this darn forum ^^). Korean has 14 simple consonants and 10 simple vowels, which means a wide range of sounds. It is easy to mistake one for another. Koreans are not used to speaking with foreigners, because foreigners generally do not bother to learn Korean. They do not, in general, know how to tone down their vocabularies or slow down their speech so that foreigners can understand them. It has been said that relative to the other Asian languages, Korean has a lot more slang and swearing, and these are things that you will not learn in the classroom. Of course, you'll be lucky to even find a Korean classroom. Japanese classrooms are everywhere, but you'll pretty much have to either have Korean parents or go to Korea to learn Korean. There are next to no resources for learning Korean, and those that exist are often horrible (just take the Romanization-only 201 Korean Verbs, for instance). Whereas Chinese only has one set of word roots, Korean has two sets of word roots: native Korean, and those imported from Chinese, so by speaking Korean, you actually know a sizable subset of Chinese. This is similar to Japanese, but I didn't say Japanese was easy, either. Unlike Chinese and Japanese words, Korean words flow into each other through processes called "liaison," and "aspiration." Korean is only marginally easier to read. You may be able to pronounce words on a piece of paper, but since Korean does not have common word roots with English, you will have absolutely no idea what the word means, unless it's a loanword. Korean has far fewer loanwords than Japanese, so you will be less able to BS your reading ability. Despite the fact that I live in Korea and go to Yonsei, I have never met a white person who spoke Korean at the university level. I really want to meet one, to know that it's possible. |
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Zyzyfer
Joined: 29 Jan 2003
Location: who, what, where, when, why, how?
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:59 pm Post subject: |
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In 10 years...
- generic hakwon (like Wonderland) will all but disappear, or make way for something more specialized
- for public schools, I expect things to go back and forth, and the next wave of openings will have slightly higher qualifications required - I'm thinking TESOL/CELTA becoming some sort of E-2 visa requirement.
- this message board will have gone up in flames as the next round of CPUs become unable to render such outdated technology
| I'm With You wrote: |
| Will advanced translation software take over, eliminating many of our positions as proof readers or translators... |
I doubt it. I don't see translating/proofreading becoming a machine-performed task until artificial intelligence has become quite developed. If a machine can learn, then it can overcome the current hurdles. I doubt there is enough interest out there right now to combine machine translating with artificial intelligence within the next 10 years (20 might be a thing), AI is capable of opening up quite a few more interesting doors than just having a computer translate crap perfectly. |
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chungbukdo
Joined: 22 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:01 am Post subject: |
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Hopefully there is some good software and access to English tutors online to fill in the gaps that software can't provide, ten years from now, for people who actually want to learn English.
Public school is different though. Its not about actually wanting to learn anything, it is about keeping people in union jobs and using the same system of educating people for the past 100 years. I think it will be resistant to change, especially since it doesn't have to change (the worse it does, generally the more tax money it gets). |
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I'm With You
Joined: 01 Sep 2011
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:24 am Post subject: |
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I do not recall where I read this, but someone said that we don't see much change in 10 year intervals, but we often see big changes in 20 year intervals. So maybe the original question should have been 15 - 20 years.
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| There will still be demand for English in 10 years time. But, what kind of market it will be is anyone's guess. Japan's economy has been crap for over 20 years and there are still jobs for native speakers. But conditions are not so great either. The 1980's and early 1990's were probably a great time to be there and make money. The rest of the 90's and into the early 2000's were probably not as good, but still ok. |
Still, I think 10 years in EFL has seen big changes in Japanese EFL. Japan is all but dead in terms of viable EFL teaching positions. I mean, the people teaching in Japan are really scraping the bottom of the barrel - ￥180,000 - ￥220,000 a month! TEFL in Japan is circling the drain. Yet, as you say, in the 1980s - early 2000s, it was a great place to work and make money. Japan is livable and clean and modern. But, as someone here already mentioned, geeks go to Japan not to teach but to study karate or jujitsu or they love manga and cosplay. But it's not to teach and earn money.
| Zyzyfer wrote: |
In 10 years...
- this message board will have gone up in flames as the next round of CPUs become unable to render such outdated technology |
I agree. The medium will be different, I imagine.
| Mr. Pink wrote: |
| China is where the next big ESL rush is going to happen. It has already started. The RMB is getting stronger every year, and demand is growing. |
This will doubtless siphon off thousands of Canadians and South Africans from coming to Korea. Once people start trusting the situation there, I think a lot of people will forego Korea and aim for China. But thinning out the number of teachers who come to Korea would be a positive change. There are just too many people here.
| World Traveler wrote: |
| ...because locals will have a higher level, wages for Western teachers won't be so hot. Maybe they will be more focused on kids too. |
If anything, kids will be the future target. That might not change much, though, as kids are an important part of the EFL business here already.
Or, maybe Kim Jong-un will bomb the shit out of South Korea and Japan and there won't be anyone left to teach English to! |
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creeper1
Joined: 30 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:36 am Post subject: |
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That post by Mr Pink was a pile of horse dung.
It's well known that TEFLers in China make an absolute PITTANCE. They can barely survive.
If you were in Korea you'd be earning 4.5 million? 
This dude has lost touch with reality.
Mr Pink has lost all credibility. |
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Threequalseven
Joined: 08 May 2012
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:30 am Post subject: |
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| Decent; Yes; Yes; No; Yes; No; Not significantly; No; No; No; No; No; No; Yes; Yes; No; Roughly the same relative to other countries. |
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I'm With You
Joined: 01 Sep 2011
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:31 am Post subject: |
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| Threequalseven wrote: |
| Decent; Yes; Yes; No; Yes; No; Not significantly; No; No; No; No; No; No; Yes; Yes; No; Roughly the same relative to other countries. |
That's pretty good. I think if a lot of TEFL teachers followed your advice they'd be better off. |
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