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Korean Job Discussion Forums "The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
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UrbanStyle
Joined: 23 Jul 2009
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 2:00 pm Post subject: 1000 WON per 1 US dollar - Any1 know when this will happen? |
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| Anyone know if or when the won is projected to go back to 1000 won per 1 us dollar? - thanks! |
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Fazer
Joined: 17 Jul 2005
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| I think it will be a while, I think the central government is trying to keep it close to where it is in order to make Korean exports attractive. I don't understand it too well, but I read about massive dollar buying in order to keep the won de-valued and gain a competitive edge over competitors in the same export markets. Boy, I miss the 950 won to the US dollar days, I got spoiled! |
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Lokisama
Joined: 23 Nov 2009
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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According to forecasts.org, the won is slowly gaining on the dollar. They predict the exchange rate of 1100 won to 1 dollar for June 2010.
Check out http://forecasts.org/won.htm |
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UrbanStyle
Joined: 23 Jul 2009
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanx guys, that is very helpful! |
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Jane

Joined: 01 Feb 2003
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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Last week Korea more than hinted that it will no longer devalue the won in accordance with the US $. Furthermore, the US $ index is showing new lows, meaning the dollar is losing value thanks to all that inflation they're creating.
I expect to see the KRW gain some ground on the dollar in the next year or two. |
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GwangjuParents
Joined: 31 Oct 2008
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 6:00 pm Post subject: |
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Dubai is going bankrupt and people are getting nervous again, which usually results in a $$$ flight from countries like Korea to the USD and Yen.
Won dropped quite a bit today against the USD.
I say: bring it on! |
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Forever

Joined: 12 Nov 2009
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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| GwangjuParents wrote: |
Dubai is going bankrupt and people are getting nervous again, which usually results in a $$$ flight from countries like Korea to the USD and Yen.
Won dropped quite a bit today against the USD.
I say: bring it on! |
South Korea estimated the country's financial institutions have just $88 million in exposure. Construction firms from Japan, Australia and South Korea behind Dubai's recent development boom also might be on the hook. |
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Big Mac
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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I'm going to school in Australia next year and I'm more interested right now in the value of the Won versus the Australian dollar. It's been pretty crappy the last few months and seems to be getting worse. It means school is going to be a lot more expensive for me than I expected!
It's really hard to find prediction info about the KRW/AUD rate. All the information seems to be about the US dollar, which is really annoying. So I'm really in the dark about what to expect. |
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Old Gil

Joined: 26 Sep 2009 Location: Got out! olleh!
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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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| April 7th 2010, you can take that downtown and PRINT IT |
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Cerberus
Joined: 29 Oct 2009
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Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 4:35 am Post subject: |
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| Big Mac wrote: |
I'm going to school in Australia next year and I'm more interested right now in the value of the Won versus the Australian dollar. It's been pretty crappy the last few months and seems to be getting worse. It means school is going to be a lot more expensive for me than I expected!
It's really hard to find prediction info about the KRW/AUD rate. All the information seems to be about the US dollar, which is really annoying. So I'm really in the dark about what to expect. |
that's because no one cares about the KRW/AUD rate. for that matter, no one outside of us cares about the KRW/USD rate because very few people care about the KRW period.
What has happened the last year gives one a pretty good idea about how KRW/AUD do.
It will be pure ddong (not the Vietnamese currency)
As the stock markets stabilized and rallied, the recovery in the Aussie far outpaced the won and when the Dubai default shook the markets on Friday, the won was affected more than the Aussie (though only slightly)
basically, there is no way the won will win vs the aussie either in good times or bad. Both currencies will suffer if sustained selling returns to global stock markets... the aussie because it's typically used in the carry trade along with the kiwi and the won because of the opennness and liqudity in the Korean markets (unlike most others in Asia) |
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PeterDragon
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
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Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 5:01 am Post subject: |
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I've been watching the won carefully for the past several months--- checking on it almost daily by doing this Google search: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=1000+krw+to+usd&aq=f&oq=&aqi=g2
Overall the 1000 note has been going up a penny a month for the last several months. Assuming that continues, we're looking at 14-16 months before the won is neck in neck with the dollar. I certainly think the trend is going to continue upward. Whether 1000 won reaches a dollar in under a year, over a year, under two years... etc... is hard to predict on the other hand.
As for the forecast chart linked above, I've been following it for about a year. Its general predictions for growth are true, but it's overly optimistic on the rate of growth. Thus far the won has been revaluing about 50-60% slower than that chart would indicate. |
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caribmon
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 5:55 am Post subject: |
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| Because Korea imports 100% of its energy and most of its raw materials and food, the won cannot appreciate much more than 10% per annum from the 1000:1 level. It will take the US many years to rebuild the manufacturing industry. Until then, Korean currency will slowly increase. But in 2013 Korea will enter a massive depression when oil production is 75 million barrels per day and the price is $200. At that level, it is cheaper to make most everything locally. Everything is made with robots anyway so the determining factor today is shipping cost and labour cost. If you cost out injection molded parts in China or Korea, it's not much cheaper than if you do it in North America. It's just that the Chinese are pulling huge volumes with low labour cost and that more than offsets the shipping cost. Same thing with flat panel displays. They are made in huge sheets and CNC cut. All the semiconductors are robotic. Automakers are mostly robotic. At $200 oil, localization is the norm, and countries with resources begin to really starve the countries with no resources. |
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ytide
Joined: 26 Jul 2009
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Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:15 am Post subject: |
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| Lokisama wrote: |
According to forecasts.org, the won is slowly gaining on the dollar. They predict the exchange rate of 1100 won to 1 dollar for June 2010.
Check out http://forecasts.org/won.htm |
These appear to be good projections, judging by past performance. Forecast.org prediction screenshot, for the record (Not sure why I can't img tag this).
Looking at past performance of this forecasts.org group:
http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://forecasts.org/won.htm VS.
http://www.x-rates.com/d/KRW/USD/hist2007.html
------------------------------------
Forecasts published on June 12th, 2007
Predicted (Actual) [+/- Accuracy] (note: a lower "accuracy" represents a stronger KRW than predicted, i.e. is good for us)
July: 924.7 (918.1) [-6-6]
August: 938.7 (934.5) [-4.2]
September: 941.4 (928.6) [-12.8]
October: 950.8 (914.9) [-35.9]
November: 949.6 (918.4) [-31.2]
------------------------------------
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New predictions made on October 13th, 2007
Predicted (Actual)
November: 921.2 (918.4) [-2.8]
December: 924.5 (931.5) [+7.0]
January: 928.2 (942.0) [+13.8]
February: 936.6 (944.0) [+7.4]
March: 939.8 (981.7) [+41.9]
------------------------------------
GIVEN
--It is in our interest for the KRW-->USD to be as low as possible. Being that
1million KRW @ 1300 buys $769;
1million KRW @ 1200 buys $833;
1million KRW @ 1100 buys $909;
1million KRW @ 1000 buys $1,000;
1million KRW @ ...900 buys $1,111.
So, our interest in this is that we want to buy dollars (or any other currency) when the KRW is the strongest. Otherwise we are losing (potentially lots of) money.
All the 2007-early2008 predictions cited above were made up to five-months into the future. All but one of those predictions were within a few points of the predicted value, or were too-high (i.e., the KRW was stronger than they predicted). [The single too-low outlier, the prediction for March2008 made on Oct2007, was still within the 50%-margin of error].
The lesson to us is that the KRW-->USD is obviously on the longterm downward trend (i,e, strengthening, i.e. good for us). In May next year, it will most probably be below 1100, if their 2007 forecasting performance is an indication. So, anyone who wants to remit or "cash out" and leave Korea sometime in early-mid 2010 is best advised to wait as long as possible to empty your bank account. Don't remit small sums at a time. You'll lose of money doing so, and not just for the transfer fees. The longterm trend is downward (i.e., good for us) through next summer, so holding out makes most sense. If you're leaving in winter2009-2010, Spring 2010, or Summer 2010... then in your last two weeks in the country, wait for a day when the KRW-->USD is is several points lower than the previous few days, and then go to the bank to do it. Recklessly doing it now at 1175 represents losing thousands of dollars on a year's accumulated wages.
22million @ 1175 = $18,700
22million @ 1000= $22,000
...doing it earlier this year when it was in the 1400s was the stupidest of all:
22million @ 1450 = $15,100 |
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ytide
Joined: 26 Jul 2009
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Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:33 am Post subject: |
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| caribmon wrote: |
| At $200 oil, localization is the norm, and countries with resources begin to really starve the countries with no resources. |
This is Peak-Oil stuff that caribmon is referencing. Peak-Oil is genuinely intriguing because it is inevitably and indisputably true (world oil demand rising, oil production not rising because of limited world supply). Though perhaps the outcome will not be as extreme or rapid as some say. Or maybe a "cold-fusion"-style miracle will save the world economy.
This gets me thinking:
I was in a rural part of Gyeonggi over the weekend, and I saw so many ramshackle "고구마 For Sale"-type signs set up by the roadside. Many were abandoned, but others were next to basically dilapidated little tents, with the potatoes. Passing cars presumably stop and buy them. These pathetic 고구마 peddlers are a graphic representation of something fairly obvious. One realizes that these people -- people that still make their money selling the food that they grow directly -- have been socially very undynamic for 55 years in this country. Everywhere else, too, and much longer in the West, but in South Korea it is most evident. The Chaebol-slaves ("salarymen") and the types like my hagwon owner (whose money comes from Chaebol-slaves in the form of tuition) have been the arbiters of social-dynamism, and more and more so every year.
Social power has flowed to the Chaebol-slaves. Whereas rural people and farmers, are marginal. The correlation with the rise of Christianity in this country is easy to see: People in the dynamic classes are mostly Christians, and many cynical observers say it's just about status. It is, though not necessarily conscious on the part of the Korean "converts". But if Peak-Oil pans out as bad as some say it will, the tables will turn. Social power could start flowing back to the farmers soon enough. And this change will be faster than the 1953-to-Present RuralFarmer-->Chaebol social-dynamism flow.
In light of Peak Oil, I agree that having money in KRW over the very long haul is idiotic. Without export markets (mainly the USA) for the Chaebols' junk, what would the South Korean economy be? |
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