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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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 Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 7:49 am Post subject: New York City Reaches a New Low in a Good Way |
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from the New York Times:
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There were days upon days in New York City when not a single person was murdered in 2009. Two such stretches, in February and March, lasted nearly a week each.
There were some pockets of the city where homicide was a singular occurrence: 12 of the city�s 77 police precincts, in locations as varied as Hamilton Heights, in Upper Manhattan, and Park Slope, Brooklyn, had logged one each through Sunday.
The story line of murder in New York is one that has been undergoing constant revision since 1963, when the Police Department began tracking homicides in a way that officials now deem reliable. (Before then, homicides were not counted until they were solved.) There have been rises � the number peaked at 2,245 in 1990 � and subsequent falls. But there have never been as few homicides as this year.
The city is on track, for the second time in three years, to have the fewest homicides in a 12-month period since the current record keeping system began. As of Sunday, there had been 461; the record low was in 2007, when there were 496 for the entire year. |
Fewer than 6 homicides per 100,000 people not only makes NYC the safest city in the US, but one of the safer cities throughout the Western World. Mayor Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Ray Kelly seem to think the best way to reduce violence even more is to reduce the amount of GUNS!GUNS!GUNS!. However, I think that answer is too simple. There is a lot more going on to make NYC one of the World's safer cities.
Wikipedia has a list of 2008 crime data by US city:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate |
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wesharris
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 8:34 am Post subject: |
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| Increasing the number of guns in the hands of trained citizens is very helpful for reducing crime rates. |
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Kimbop
Joined: 31 Mar 2008
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 8:38 am Post subject: |
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Changing demographics: lower birth rate among all segments = aging population + influx of immigrants who statistically are less crime prone.
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| Increasing the number of guns in the hands of trained citizens is very helpful for reducing crime rates. |
Agreed. Key word: legal gun owners, unlike trashbags such as Little Wayne. |
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asylum seeker
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Location: On your computer screen.
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 9:11 am Post subject: |
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I think the 'zero tolerance'/'broken windows' policy should get some of the credit:
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| Thus, Giuliani's "zero tolerance" roll out was part of an interlocking set of wider reforms, crucial parts of which had been underway since 1985. Giuliani had the police even more strictly enforce the law against subway fare evasion, and stopped public drinkers, urinators, and the "squeegee men" who had been wiping windshields of stopped cars and demanding payment. According to the 2001 study of crime trends in New York by George Kelling and William Sousa,[3] rates of both petty and serious crime fell suddenly and significantly, and continued to drop for the following ten years. |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:16 am Post subject: |
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Actually AS, the book Freakanomics had evidence that the "zero tolerance" policy did not contribute much to NY's drop in crime. I don't remember the exact details, but I do remember that the authors noted how many other cities saw similar drops in crime, but did not implement the same policies as NYPD.
edit #1: to elaborate a bit.
edit 2: to explain the first edit. And yes, JMO, that was what the authors argued: that abortion was the cause. Personally I felt they made a stronger case saying why the "zero tolerance" policy wasn't the biggest factor than why abortion was the biggest cause.
I agree with kimbop, demographics were a significant reason why crime dropped. Abortion is one of the components of changing demographics.
Last edited by bucheon bum on Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:20 am; edited 2 times in total |
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JMO
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Location: Daegu
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:17 am Post subject: |
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Did anyone ever read the 'Freakonomics' take on this?
They said that Wade vs Roe and the elimination of a generation of unwanted children caused the decline in crime rates. Their theory was in direct opposition to the 'broken windows' theory. I don't really know enough about it..but it was interesting. |
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tfunk
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Location: Dublin, Ireland
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| JMO wrote: |
Did anyone ever read the 'Freakonomics' take on this?
They said that Wade vs Roe and the elimination of a generation of unwanted children caused the decline in crime rates. Their theory was in direct opposition to the 'broken windows' theory. I don't really know enough about it..but it was interesting. |
How are these theories in opposition? |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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| The key to all this was Rudy Giuliani's crackdown on crime, perhaps? Haven't they said that crime has gone down all over America? |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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| tfunk wrote: |
| JMO wrote: |
Did anyone ever read the 'Freakonomics' take on this?
They said that Wade vs Roe and the elimination of a generation of unwanted children caused the decline in crime rates. Their theory was in direct opposition to the 'broken windows' theory. I don't really know enough about it..but it was interesting. |
How are these theories in opposition? |
I think what JMO meant was the popular theory is the "broken windows" policy is the #1 cause for reduced crime in NY, while 'Freakanomics' argues that it was abortion that was the primary factor. They are in opposition because they obviously both can't be the root cause. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Adventurer wrote: |
| The key to all this was Rudy Giuliani's crackdown on crime, perhaps? Haven't they said that crime has gone down all over America? |
Yes, which would indicate that Giuliani's crack down wasn't necessarily the biggest factor in the lower crime numbers. If it were, NY would be the outlier, not the trend. |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 1:45 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="bucheon bum"]
| tfunk wrote: |
| JMO wrote: |
Did anyone ever read the 'Freakonomics' take on this?
They said that Wade vs Roe and the elimination of a generation of unwanted children caused the decline in crime rates. Their theory was in direct opposition to the 'broken windows' theory. I don't really know enough about it..but it was interesting. |
How are these theories in opposition? |
For what it's worth, a couple of economists have claimed to debunk the abortion-reduces-crime theory.
My eyes glaze over at the best of times when reading statistical arguments, and I haven't had much sleep in the past 48 hours, so I'll just post this for anyone interested. |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 7:58 am Post subject: |
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| I think there are a confluence of factors at play wrt NYC's decreasing crime rate. Kimbop is right to point out changing demographics. Also, there certainly is a correlation between legalized abortion and crime rates. However, from what I understand there would be a three year time lag between crime rates in New York and Texas. The paper argued that NY legalized abortion in 1969 and Roe v. Wade was in 1972. Should that be the case crime rates would already be as low in places like Houston and LA as they are in NYC by now. There is something else that was missed though. Another factor that I think should be considered. The murder rate reached its peak in 1990 near the height of the crack boom. If you remember, there was a movie about the crack boom in New York. Shortly after 1990 the demand for crack declined as did the crime rate. I am not suggesting that the end of the crack boom was a single factor, just one of many. |
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