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hajima 99
Joined: 13 Jun 2009
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 Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 4:36 am Post subject: Report: Traders look to S.K's Won over all others in 2010! |
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Felt this merited its own thread. Could be a good year to be raking in the manwons. High fives all around if true:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX5sGCoHPVI |
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Wangja
Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan
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| Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 5:54 am Post subject: |
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| Have to check this with the Economist BigMac index .... |
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jontpanty
Joined: 14 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 10:43 am Post subject: |
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| woo-hoo! |
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Jeonmunka
Joined: 05 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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Big Macs are not all even - NZ macs taste better because of the meat and bread; US macs are much bigger ... so the price purchasing power is not useful to compare big macs as people think.
Anyway, having been beaten up the last two years with NZ to the won, I hope this is right. But, I don't think it will be, not with NZ. NZ needs to borrow so much now as it is burgeoned with record debt. It needs to keep the interest rates up to attrract foreign investment - if Korea and others keep taking it, NZ will simply up its interest rates, as it has done. With the Aus, the only place left in the World with nice resources, is Aus. No way Aus will sell its guts cheaply.
So, vis a vis the US and Europe, maybe some of that will fly Korea's way.
As for the video she mentions that demand for commodities will bull the market with Korea in that. Well, how is that since Korea has value added but not actual commodities like lcd displays and some cars.
Thanks for the post though, makes me feel better since I do have to change 20 grand in two months time. But, I ain't keeping my optimism that high. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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Add this good news to the mix: The KOSPI is expected to go to 2000 (from just under 1700).  |
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Cerberus
Joined: 29 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 12:22 am Post subject: Re: Report: Traders look to S.K's Won over all others in 201 |
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must be the same guys who were long CMO's and sold CDS's in 2007 
the won has recovered most of the gap it put on between it and other currencies last year (meaning it got so massively crapped on as opposed to everything else, it had a far bigger bounceback if things stabilized, as they have)
so with it now being around what.. 1115 or so... I see its upside limited vs other non dollar currencies. Vs the dollar depends on a lot of things... the answers to which I don't have at the moment.. otherwise I'd be on my own Pacific island being fed grapes and fanned by the native girls.
if you're big time bullish on the won, you better hope that the hopes for a v shaped recovery aren't thwarted (as they're likely to be) |
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Jeonmunka
Joined: 05 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 5:43 am Post subject: |
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| So, how about some friggin English Cerebus, eh? |
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Cerberus
Joined: 29 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 9:51 am Post subject: |
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| Jeonmunka wrote: |
| So, how about some friggin English Cerebus, eh? |
what exactly didn't you understand?
well ok
CMO's - Collaterized Mortgage Obligations
CDS - Credit Default Swaps
I challenge any of these ANALysts to show me how they predicted that the Korean won would become the (recently dismantled) Zimbabwean dollar and would challenge it for the most useless crap of paper currency around back in 2008/2009.
Those are the same idiots who were selling Korean chaebols derivatives in form of options strangles - essentially betting that the won/dollar range would remain with roughly a 800-1200 band.. the chaebols got raped on that bet.. the Korean central bank intervened massively in the waning days of 2008 to get the rate on Dec 31 down to 1250... to help their chaebol buddies out on accounting.. and the rate plummeted.
Now Korea's "recovery" still essentially rests on the weakness of their currency, relative to the others which have recovered close to their pre economic crisis levels.
I challenge anyone to explain to me why betting on Korea or Korean currency would be a better bet than betting on Indonesia's - a real developing country with much higher upside than quasi developed Korea, with resources, minerals and commodities up the wazoo - all things which Korea lacks and has to import.
Not to mention an unstable 70 year old Commie lunatic with nukes on their northern border.
of course, the best bet would be to get long the Chinese remnimbi.. but unless you're earning it, it's almost impossible to do and the six month forwards that banks have access to are useless for longer term investment purposes. |
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Jeonmunka
Joined: 05 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 1:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanks, Mate. |
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Palladium
Joined: 26 Apr 2009
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Until the bubbles in the Chinese economy pop (land prices, Chinese stock market, commodity prices) and Korea catches the down wave as well. |
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Cerberus
Joined: 29 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Palladium wrote: |
| Until the bubbles in the Chinese economy pop (land prices, Chinese stock market, commodity prices) and Korea catches the down wave as well. |
not inaccurate, though one can make arguments the Chinese bubble isn't ready to pop just yet.
the bottom line is Korea is super vulnerable to just about any economic storm or headwind and once again, has to import just about anything and everything of mineral resource/commodity relevance.
A walking advertisement for "do you feel lucky, Punk?"
give me Brazil or Indonesia any day of the week and Sunday. |
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Jeonmunka
Joined: 05 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Indo's got oil as well. But commodities isn't always what drives speculation - high interest rates often overide even an unstable currency. The NZD has huge swings and is known as an unstable currency. Yet, investors pour their all into it to catch the interest rates and do pull out as soon as signs show the timing to do so. I wish the heck they would. |
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Cerberus
Joined: 29 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:33 am Post subject: |
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| Jeonmunka wrote: |
| Indo's got oil as well. But commodities isn't always what drives speculation - high interest rates often overide even an unstable currency. The NZD has huge swings and is known as an unstable currency. Yet, investors pour their all into it to catch the interest rates and do pull out as soon as signs show the timing to do so. I wish the heck they would. |
I'm not saying commodities and natural resources are reasons for speculation, I instead like them as a reason for a buffer if things go badly.
It's always an added plus so to speak. With Korea, that's an everpresent minus. Seems to me that unless the Korean chaebols are about to make technological breakthroughs and start beating the Japanese at the "export" game, it's not a place I'd like to put my money in. There are better options.
the Kiwi (and to lesser extent Aussie) are/were simply victims of the global carry trade (developed nation carry trade) because their interest rates were by far the highest in the first world. If NZ is paying you 8.25=8.5 percent and you could borrow your money in Japan for basically no cost, it didn't take a genius to put that kind of trade on. Legal and transparency issues (aka developed first world country) makes it more attractive than putting your money into a developing country like Turkey or somewhere else, where they can devalue at almost any moment. |
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