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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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 Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 5:38 am Post subject: Mini Ice Age Starts Here |
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The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years. According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 26 per cent since 2007.
Much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a �warm mode� as opposed to the present �cold mode�.
Prof Latif, who leads a research team at Germany�s Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures 3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles start. He and his colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published in 2008.
"A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles � perhaps as much as 50 per cent. They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer".
The current freeze is the product of the �Arctic oscillation� � a weather pattern that sees the development of huge �blocking� areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south. However, according to Prof Latif and his colleagues, this in turn relates to much longer-term shifts � what are known as the Pacific and Atlantic �multi-decadal oscillations� (MDOs), abruptly flipping the world�s climate from a �warm mode� to a �cold mode� and back again in 20 to 30-year cycles. Prof Tsonis said that the period from 1915 to 1940 saw a strong warm mode, reflected in rising temperatures. But from 1940 until the late Seventies, the last MDO cold-mode era, the world cooled. |
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 6:21 am Post subject: |
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Very interesting. I think it's important to keep this section of text specifically in mind, though:
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Last night he told The Mail on Sunday: �A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles � perhaps as much as 50 per cent.
'They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer.
�The extreme retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to a halt. For the time being, global warming has paused, and there may well be some cooling.� |
This helps highlight that ocean-driven and cooling cycles are not necessarily incompatible with anthropogenic global warming. Indeed, such ocean-driven warming and cooling cycles could obfuscate the presence of anthropogenic global warming if it did exist without actually counteracting it. This is good data, so long as we recognize that anthropogenic global warming must be evaluated in the long term. Every time someone says, "It's the hottest/coldest year on record! This proves my point!" they're pushing an agenda. Even the scientists in question seem to recognize that this doesn't disprove anthropogenic global warming, but is rather simply data that must be taken into consideration while evaluating whether or not it really exists.
The people most likely to be hurt by this are the ones who made exaggerated claims in order to play up the threat of global warming. Unfortunately, they're so linked with the theory itself in the public eye that it's likely to hurt the entire theory rather than just them. |
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djsmnc
Joined: 20 Jan 2003
Location: Dave's ESL Cafe
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 9:53 am Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
Very interesting. I think it's important to keep this section of text specifically in mind, though:
| Quote: |
Last night he told The Mail on Sunday: �A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles � perhaps as much as 50 per cent.
'They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer.
�The extreme retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to a halt. For the time being, global warming has paused, and there may well be some cooling.� |
This helps highlight that ocean-driven and cooling cycles are not necessarily incompatible with anthropogenic global warming. Indeed, such ocean-driven warming and cooling cycles could obfuscate the presence of anthropogenic global warming if it did exist without actually counteracting it. This is good data, so long as we recognize that anthropogenic global warming must be evaluated in the long term. Every time someone says, "It's the hottest/coldest year on record! This proves my point!" they're pushing an agenda. Even the scientists in question seem to recognize that this doesn't disprove anthropogenic global warming, but is rather simply data that must be taken into consideration while evaluating whether or not it really exists.
The people most likely to be hurt by this are the ones who made exaggerated claims in order to play up the threat of global warming. Unfortunately, they're so linked with the theory itself in the public eye that it's likely to hurt the entire theory rather than just them. |
Yeah, whatever Chicken Little |
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thecount
Joined: 10 Nov 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:53 am Post subject: |
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But Fox, it says that this accounts for a significant portion of global warming...there is nothing in there, admission or omission, that supports that this warming is caused by humans.
In fact, much of it invalidates claims by AGW proponents who had dismissed such factors as un-trended "blips."
What's more, a mainstay of AGW is hubristic to insistence that man is the primary cause of global rising temperatures. It is a very basic concept because they cannot account for external factors. AGW is little more than "more co2 = more warming." They do not account for cloud cover, gulf stream, el nino, etc. But, even with a world in otherwise perfect equilibrium, such claims would fall flat. Heck, in the past 100 years, the majority of the temperature rise was BEFORE 1950. So much for an exponential increase. But obvious issues such as that never troubled the cult. With the data we've since gathered about solar radiation effect on cloud cover, carbon atmospheric lifespan (far shorter than previously predicted) and current cycles that are unrelated to man, such arguments fall flat.
We have every reason to seek renewable energy and work to decrease pollution. However, we should not do so at the cost of logic and submit to fear mongering for a phantom enemy. Those here who have lived long enough remember the "Global Cooling" fear-mongering that went on in the 70's. Every day, New York Times seemed to be printing another renowned scientists research proving we would all freeze to death in the next generation.
I just don't know how we can out there and say "co2 is responsible for all the world's ills" when we our scientists haven't even figured out the full carbon cycle. |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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| thecount wrote: |
| But Fox, it says that this accounts for a significant portion of global warming...there is nothing in there, admission or omission, that supports that this warming is caused by humans. |
I agree; there's no admission either way, other than the admission that this alone is not 100% -- or even close to 100% -- responsible for warming. So, we need to continue to look to other sources to explain the rest. One possibility that remains is anthropogenic global warming.
I'm no anthropogenic global warming true believer. I think it's a plausible possibility that needs to be fully investigated, and I think there are a number of changes that would be warranted in light of anthropogenic global warming which we should undertake even if it's not true (for example, the conversion to a clean energy economy), but I don't think it's an obvious, undeniable truth. I just also think it's not an obvious, undeniable falsehood, and given the gravity of the possibility, it needs to be taken seriously and not denied out of hand.
| thecount wrote: |
| We have every reason to seek renewable energy and work to decrease pollution. However, we should not do so at the cost of logic and submit to fear mongering for a phantom enemy. |
We needn't sacrifice logic by making changes in response to the possibilityof global warming. Any change that would benefit us in the long term even if anthropogenic global warming turns out to be false is one worth making. Many of the changes that would be needed in the face of anthropogenic global warming fall into this category anyway. Any change that would provide value if and only if anthropogenic global warming is true can wait until more data is discovered and we're more certain either way. I don't think there's anything illogical about that.
| thecount wrote: |
| I just don't know how we can out there and say "co2 is responsible for all the world's ills" when we our scientists haven't even figured out the full carbon cycle. |
Well, that's an example of what I was alluding to when I said certain individuals had overexaggerated the situation. Statements like this, statements like "All polar ice will vanish by 2013," and so forth are very extreme, and also things that might not be true even if anthropogenic global warming really is true. Frankly, they were idiotic things to say by people who didn't fully think through their positions. The fact that some people overstated, however, doesn't mean that anthropogenic global warming isn't occuring and isn't a threat. It just means some people run their mouths too much. Whether anthropogenic global warming is really occuring or not will take a much longer time than we've devoted to it to resolve. |
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young_clinton
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
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| Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 11:50 am Post subject: Re: Mini Ice Age Starts Here |
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| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
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The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years. According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 26 per cent since 2007.
Much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a �warm mode� as opposed to the present �cold mode�.
Prof Latif, who leads a research team at Germany�s Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures 3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles start. He and his colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published in 2008.
"A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles � perhaps as much as 50 per cent. They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer".
The current freeze is the product of the �Arctic oscillation� � a weather pattern that sees the development of huge �blocking� areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south. However, according to Prof Latif and his colleagues, this in turn relates to much longer-term shifts � what are known as the Pacific and Atlantic �multi-decadal oscillations� (MDOs), abruptly flipping the world�s climate from a �warm mode� to a �cold mode� and back again in 20 to 30-year cycles. Prof Tsonis said that the period from 1915 to 1940 saw a strong warm mode, reflected in rising temperatures. But from 1940 until the late Seventies, the last MDO cold-mode era, the world cooled. |
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html |
I don't believe this for a second. 2010 is predicted to be the hottest year on record for a long time. It's cool now and It's been cool for the past 10 years because of the El Nino effect. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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| 2010 is predicted to be the hottest year on record for a long time. |
Good. Let's see how that turns out. A near-term prediction. |
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thecount
Joined: 10 Nov 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 12:48 am Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
I think there are a number of changes that would be warranted in light of anthropogenic global warming which we should undertake even if it's not true (for example, the conversion to a clean energy economy), but I don't think it's an obvious, undeniable truth. I just also think it's not an obvious, undeniable falsehood, and given the gravity of the possibility, it needs to be taken seriously and not denied out of hand.
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....Any change that would provide value if and only if anthropogenic global warming is true can wait until more data is discovered and we're more certain either way. I don't think there's anything illogical about that.
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I agree with you completely, however I feel that the changes that the activists are proposing would dramatically cripple our economy at one of our most vulnerable times. Investing large portions of money into renewable energy infrastructure and research is wise. But we cannot clamp down on our economic growth before a system is in place to take over.
When it comes to global warming, talks are centered on restriction of production, not revolution of technology. Restriction raises enormous amounts of tax money for each of the countries. In fact, with the carbon credit system, we have the ultimate liberal fantasy - we end up paying people not to produce. If the activists are right, there is already enough carbon in the oceans to keep us warming for 1000 years. So slowing down in the short run is not going to stop warming; we need to use what we have today to get where we need to be tomorrow. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:56 am Post subject: Re: Mini Ice Age Starts Here |
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| young_clinton wrote: |
| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
| Quote: |
The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years. According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 26 per cent since 2007.
Much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a �warm mode� as opposed to the present �cold mode�.
Prof Latif, who leads a research team at Germany�s Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures 3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles start. He and his colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published in 2008.
"A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles � perhaps as much as 50 per cent. They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer".
The current freeze is the product of the �Arctic oscillation� � a weather pattern that sees the development of huge �blocking� areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south. However, according to Prof Latif and his colleagues, this in turn relates to much longer-term shifts � what are known as the Pacific and Atlantic �multi-decadal oscillations� (MDOs), abruptly flipping the world�s climate from a �warm mode� to a �cold mode� and back again in 20 to 30-year cycles. Prof Tsonis said that the period from 1915 to 1940 saw a strong warm mode, reflected in rising temperatures. But from 1940 until the late Seventies, the last MDO cold-mode era, the world cooled. |
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html |
I don't believe this for a second. 2010 is predicted to be the hottest year on record for a long time. It's cool now and It's been cool for the past 10 years because of the El Nino effect. |
Huh? Source? I'm skeptical because El Nino isn't a decade-long event. It happens periodically, and is more of an annual thing. Sounds like you've mixed up a couple news stories there.
Also, El Nino has a different effect on different parts of the world. For instance, in California, it means a ton of rain, and doesn't really affect temperature there. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 9:52 am Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
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| 2010 is predicted to be the hottest year on record for a long time. |
Good. Let's see how that turns out. A near-term prediction. |
But you have not factored short-term memory into this.
How many here will recall this prediction and measure the actual year's weather patterns against it in January 2011?
I predict this: the doom-and-gloom, end-of-the-world forecasts will continue indefinitely no matter what happens and not matter what anyone does or says. It is the only way so many of us know how to talk: always in dramatic, hyperbolic, superlative, and often angry and outraged terms...  |
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young_clinton
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 11:43 pm Post subject: Re: Mini Ice Age Starts Here |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| young_clinton wrote: |
| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
| Quote: |
The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years. According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 26 per cent since 2007.
Much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a �warm mode� as opposed to the present �cold mode�.
Prof Latif, who leads a research team at Germany�s Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures 3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles start. He and his colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published in 2008.
"A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles � perhaps as much as 50 per cent. They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer".
The current freeze is the product of the �Arctic oscillation� � a weather pattern that sees the development of huge �blocking� areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south. However, according to Prof Latif and his colleagues, this in turn relates to much longer-term shifts � what are known as the Pacific and Atlantic �multi-decadal oscillations� (MDOs), abruptly flipping the world�s climate from a �warm mode� to a �cold mode� and back again in 20 to 30-year cycles. Prof Tsonis said that the period from 1915 to 1940 saw a strong warm mode, reflected in rising temperatures. But from 1940 until the late Seventies, the last MDO cold-mode era, the world cooled. |
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html |
I don't believe this for a second. 2010 is predicted to be the hottest year on record for a long time. It's cool now and It's been cool for the past 10 years because of the El Nino effect. |
Huh? Source? I'm skeptical because El Nino isn't a decade-long event. It happens periodically, and is more of an annual thing. Sounds like you've mixed up a couple news stories there.
Also, El Nino has a different effect on different parts of the world. For instance, in California, it means a ton of rain, and doesn't really affect temperature there. |
The source was definetly reputable. I don't remember where i saw it, either the Economist or The International Herald. I will look for it and post it if i find it.
But the article stated that the past 10 years has been unusually cool, especially considering global warming, and that thier was specific reasons for it and that unfortunately the cool period was going to end. It also pretty much stated things were warming up this year and it would be consistent with global warming. |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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This the link you were thinking about?
http://www.economist.com/sciencetechnology/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15211377
That said, I don't think one particularly hot year means much of anything or is indicative of an overall warming trend. The sun will be getting brighter for one (which AGW scientists denied was a major factor) and the oceans will be releasing more heat.
Like the article itself states...understanding climate change is still a challenge.
Heck, even the five day forecast is likely to be as wrong as right...hard to put much stock in predictions occurring 20 or more years out. |
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