|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
placeshifter
Joined: 23 Jan 2010
|
 Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 9:01 am Post subject: Stay in S. Korea. You really do not want to be in the U.S. |
 |
|
Just my opinion of course, but the US dollar will sooner rather than later, have a crisis of confidence and approach its day of reckoning. The Fed nominally raising its discount rate was just one sign of the the Fed Reserve desperately being forced to make a symbolic (but empty) gesture in order to keep the wobbling house of cards up for the time being. They will try to inflate away their crushing national debt and 'secretly' rob the wealth of Americans, even as it becomes clear that the system is about to burst.
The USD will probably still exist, yes. But the standard of living for future generations will decline dramatically, year after year, decade after decade, as its debt becomes a permanent tax on its citizens. And that's the optimistic projection. The pessimistic projection is pure misery and chaos.
Personally, I have an online business. I earn most of my income in US dollars, a small amount in Euros/Won, so I care very much about the USD. But I am pessimistic.
I think every person, regardless of what you do, needs to start thinking like a responsible Central Bank. Diversify your income stream with different currencies. Keep a reserve in precious metals (yes, gold). Pay down ALL DEBT immediately. And stay nimble. Don't be satisfied earning your won salary and looking back to the US or another gig as your 'future plan'. Use this time to seize upon other opportunities, esp. in Asia.
Because this dance of paper currencies devaluing against one another while money printing and debt assumption goes on as far as the eye cannot end well. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
kinerry
Joined: 01 Jun 2009
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 9:08 am Post subject: Re: Stay in S. Korea. You really do not want to be in the U |
|
|
| placeshifter wrote: |
Just my opinion of course, but the US dollar will sooner rather than later, have a crisis of confidence and approach its day of reckoning. The Fed nominally raising its discount rate was just one sign of the the Fed Reserve desperately being forced to make a symbolic (but empty) gesture in order to keep the wobbling house of cards up for the time being. They will try to inflate away their crushing national debt and 'secretly' rob the wealth of Americans, even as it becomes clear that the system is about to burst.
The USD will probably still exist, yes. But the standard of living for future generations will decline dramatically, year after year, decade after decade, as its debt becomes a permanent tax on its citizens. And that's the optimistic projection. The pessimistic projection is pure misery and chaos.
Personally, I have an online business. I earn most of my income in US dollars, a small amount in Euros/Won, so I care very much about the USD. But I am pessimistic.
I think every person, regardless of what you do, needs to start thinking like a responsible Central Bank. Diversify your income stream with different currencies. Keep a reserve in precious metals (yes, gold). Pay down ALL DEBT immediately. And stay nimble. Don't be satisfied earning your won salary and looking back to the US or another gig as your 'future plan'. Use this time to seize upon other opportunities, esp. in Asia.
Because this dance of paper currencies devaluing against one another while money printing and debt assumption goes on as far as the eye cannot end well. |
the amount of errors here is mind boggling
you realize people have been saying the same thing for 50+ years right? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
placeshifter
Joined: 23 Jan 2010
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 9:18 am Post subject: Re: Stay in S. Korea. You really do not want to be in the U |
|
|
| kinerry wrote: |
| placeshifter wrote: |
Just my opinion of course, but the US dollar will sooner rather than later, have a crisis of confidence and approach its day of reckoning. The Fed nominally raising its discount rate was just one sign of the the Fed Reserve desperately being forced to make a symbolic (but empty) gesture in order to keep the wobbling house of cards up for the time being. They will try to inflate away their crushing national debt and 'secretly' rob the wealth of Americans, even as it becomes clear that the system is about to burst.
The USD will probably still exist, yes. But the standard of living for future generations will decline dramatically, year after year, decade after decade, as its debt becomes a permanent tax on its citizens. And that's the optimistic projection. The pessimistic projection is pure misery and chaos.
Personally, I have an online business. I earn most of my income in US dollars, a small amount in Euros/Won, so I care very much about the USD. But I am pessimistic.
I think every person, regardless of what you do, needs to start thinking like a responsible Central Bank. Diversify your income stream with different currencies. Keep a reserve in precious metals (yes, gold). Pay down ALL DEBT immediately. And stay nimble. Don't be satisfied earning your won salary and looking back to the US or another gig as your 'future plan'. Use this time to seize upon other opportunities, esp. in Asia.
Because this dance of paper currencies devaluing against one another while money printing and debt assumption goes on as far as the eye cannot end well. |
the amount of errors here is mind boggling
you realize people have been saying the same thing for 50+ years right? |
Uh huh. And this is just a temporary blip, a small recession on the inevitable march towards our permanent bull market.
How does it feel to be one of the sheeple? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
jugbandjames
Joined: 15 Feb 2010
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 9:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
Haha, you used the word sheeple. Now I know I can safely dismiss your opinions.
Anyways, here's a graph of US debt relative to GDP by year: http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
As you can see, it's been around 50% for about the last 100 years. So if your argument is that having national debt is going to lower the US standard of living, you'd be wrong. After the Great Depression, we were able to pay off the debt after the economy recovered and things actually got much better for people than they were before the depression. The government spending money, provided it's on the right things, during a recession is actually the right thing to do. Or at least, that's what they brain-scanned into my head at the last Obama devotion I went to w/ all the other sheeple. Perhaps I need to get my tinfoil hat repaired. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 10:20 am Post subject: |
|
|
| jugbandjames wrote: |
Haha, you used the word sheeple. Now I know I can safely dismiss your opinions.
Anyways, here's a graph of US debt relative to GDP by year: http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
As you can see, it's been around 50% for about the last 100 years. So if your argument is that having national debt is going to lower the US standard of living, you'd be wrong. After the Great Depression, we were able to pay off the debt after the economy recovered and things actually got much better for people than they were before the depression. The government spending money, provided it's on the right things, during a recession is actually the right thing to do. Or at least, that's what they brain-scanned into my head at the last Obama devotion I went to w/ all the other sheeple. Perhaps I need to get my tinfoil hat repaired. |
Hm, yet another person who doesn't understand what "money" is. Or debt for that matter (hint: they're the same thing).
All fiat money issued by the central bank (the private Fed) is debt. Debt itself is bought and sold like a commodity (one that will accrue interest), swapped back and forth to the point that total USD based debt (including derivitives) has come to be in excess of $99 trillion (according to the Dallas Fed). The US government alone owes many, many trillions. This money cannot and will not be paid back (hence the impossibility of your claim that we ever "paid back 'the debt' after the Great Depression").
Fact: the overall debt (private + public) never decreases; it increases proportionate to increases in the money supply (since all money is issued as debt by the Fed). To pay off the debt is to actually reduce the money supply in circulation, which then causes a depression. The only solution is to borrow more and more (or in the case of the government, issue treasury bonds).
So the OP is correct. The day of reckoning for the dollar will come soon. This is not the same kind of depression we had in the 30's - back then we were a nation in ascendancy, with an expanding manufacturing base and practically no competition on the world stage. Now we are bankrupt and in decline, with only Bretton Woods II propping us up. The ponzi scheme is coming apart as we speak (China is already dumping US reserves, and central banks around the world are snatching up gold any chance they get). The US dollar will probably be devalued in the near future, and eventually pegged to a new "world" fiat currency, issued by a global central bank (which basically already exists). |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 10:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
Reality check:
1) When the dollar collapses, the Korean won will race ahead and hit bottom even before the dollar.
2) The real National Debt is now, in 2010, over $100 trillion dollars:
| Quote: |
Richard W. Fisher
Chairman, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Storms on the Horizon
Remarks before the Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, California
May 28, 2008
... Add together the unfunded liabilities from Medicare and Social Security, and it comes to $99.2 trillion over the infinite horizon. Traditional Medicare composes about 69 percent, the new drug benefit roughly 17 percent and Social Security the remaining 14 percent.
I want to remind you that I am only talking about the unfunded portions of Social Security and Medicare. It is what the current payment scheme of Social Security payroll taxes, Medicare payroll taxes, membership fees for Medicare B, copays, deductibles and all other revenue currently channeled to our entitlement system will not cover under current rules. These existing revenue streams must remain in place in perpetuity to handle the �funded� entitlement liabilities. Reduce or eliminate this income and the unfunded liability grows. Increase benefits and the liability grows as well.
Let�s say you and I and Bruce Ericson and every U.S. citizen who is alive today decided to fully address this unfunded liability through lump-sum payments from our own pocketbooks, so that all of us and all future generations could be secure in the knowledge that we and they would receive promised benefits in perpetuity. How much would we have to pay if we split the tab? Again, the math is painful. With a total population of 304 million, from infants to the elderly, the per-person payment to the federal treasury would come to $330,000. This comes to $1.3 million per family of four�over 25 times the average household�s income.
Clearly, once-and-for-all contributions would be an unbearable burden. Alternatively, we could address the entitlement shortfall through policy changes that would affect ourselves and future generations. For example, a permanent 68 percent increase in federal income tax revenue�from individual and corporate taxpayers�would suffice to fully fund our entitlement programs. Or we could instead divert 68 percent of current income-tax revenues from their intended uses to the entitlement system, which would accomplish the same thing.
Suppose we decided to tackle the issue solely on the spending side. It turns out that total discretionary spending in the federal budget, if maintained at its current share of GDP in perpetuity, is 3 percent larger than the entitlement shortfall. So all we would have to do to fully fund our nation�s entitlement programs would be to cut discretionary spending by 97 percent. But hold on. That discretionary spending includes defense and national security, education, the environment and many other areas, not just those controversial earmarks that make the evening news. All of them would have to be cut�almost eliminated, really�to tackle this problem through discretionary spending.
If these possible solutions to the unfunded-liability problem seem draconian, it�s because they are draconian. But they do serve to give you a sense of the severity of the problem. To be sure, there are ways to lessen the reliance on any single policy and the burden borne by any particular set of citizens. Most proposals to address long-term entitlement debt, for example, rely on a combination of tax increases, benefit reductions and eligibility changes to find the trillions necessary to safeguard the system over the long term.
No combination of tax hikes and spending cuts, though, will change the total burden borne by current and future generations. For the existing unfunded liabilities to be covered in the end, someone must pay $99.2 trillion more or receive $99.2 trillion less than they have been currently promised. This is a cold, hard fact. The decision we must make is whether to shoulder a substantial portion of that burden today or compel future generations to bear its full weight. |
However, as is more likely, the politicians will continue to expand unfunded liabilities through new big spending on wars, national health care bills etc and, at the same time, do nothing to curb other spending with a continued geometric growth in total government debt, resulting in the total collapse of the dollar by the mid 2020s at the latest.
We must understand what this debt means: the actual value of the debt today, that is the amount each of American would have to pay today to bring the US government debt to zero is over $330,000 per person, over $1.3 million per family of four.
These numbers do not represent totals added together year by year out over the future. These amounts are discounted to the present value, the amount of money that invested would cover the total debt and unfunded liabilities already promised to be paid in future years. (The absolute amounts would be more than double the present value of the debt today - that is, more than $660,000 per person and more than $2.6 million per family of four.) Further, the amounts include no money for new wars, or continuing off budget payments for current wars, or programs like the tens of trillions required to fully fund the present value of Obama's health care bill out over the future, for example.
The debt of the US government is unpayable.
The US government is bankrupt. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:24 am Post subject: Re: Stay in S. Korea. You really do not want to be in the U |
|
|
| placeshifter wrote: |
Just my opinion of course, but the US dollar will sooner rather than later, have a crisis of confidence and approach its day of reckoning. The Fed nominally raising its discount rate was just one sign of the the Fed Reserve desperately being forced to make a symbolic (but empty) gesture in order to keep the wobbling house of cards up for the time being. They will try to inflate away their crushing national debt and 'secretly' rob the wealth of Americans, even as it becomes clear that the system is about to burst.
The USD will probably still exist, yes. But the standard of living for future generations will decline dramatically, year after year, decade after decade, as its debt becomes a permanent tax on its citizens. And that's the optimistic projection. The pessimistic projection is pure misery and chaos.
Personally, I have an online business. I earn most of my income in US dollars, a small amount in Euros/Won, so I care very much about the USD. But I am pessimistic.
I think every person, regardless of what you do, needs to start thinking like a responsible Central Bank. Diversify your income stream with different currencies. Keep a reserve in precious metals (yes, gold). Pay down ALL DEBT immediately. And stay nimble. Don't be satisfied earning your won salary and looking back to the US or another gig as your 'future plan'. Use this time to seize upon other opportunities, esp. in Asia.
Because this dance of paper currencies devaluing against one another while money printing and debt assumption goes on as far as the eye cannot end well. |
What I really do not want is your advice on where I should live or any economic advice from you. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Street Magic
Joined: 23 Sep 2009
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:43 am Post subject: |
|
|
| ontheway wrote: |
| However, as is more likely, the politicians will continue to expand unfunded liabilities through new big spending on wars, national health care bills etc and, at the same time, do nothing to curb other spending with a continued geometric growth in total government debt, resulting in the total collapse of the dollar by the mid 2020s at the latest. |
Couldn't we just use the threat of our military and nuclear arms to force other wealthy but not as well armed countries to forgive our debts and give us more money (serious question)? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kimbop
Joined: 31 Mar 2008
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 3:06 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Where's Mises? I want this summed up in 50 words or less. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
kabrams
Joined: 15 Mar 2008
Location: your Dad's house
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: Stay in S. Korea. You really do not want to be in the U |
|
|
| placeshifter wrote: |
| kinerry wrote: |
| placeshifter wrote: |
Just my opinion of course, but the US dollar will sooner rather than later, have a crisis of confidence and approach its day of reckoning. The Fed nominally raising its discount rate was just one sign of the the Fed Reserve desperately being forced to make a symbolic (but empty) gesture in order to keep the wobbling house of cards up for the time being. They will try to inflate away their crushing national debt and 'secretly' rob the wealth of Americans, even as it becomes clear that the system is about to burst.
The USD will probably still exist, yes. But the standard of living for future generations will decline dramatically, year after year, decade after decade, as its debt becomes a permanent tax on its citizens. And that's the optimistic projection. The pessimistic projection is pure misery and chaos.
Personally, I have an online business. I earn most of my income in US dollars, a small amount in Euros/Won, so I care very much about the USD. But I am pessimistic.
I think every person, regardless of what you do, needs to start thinking like a responsible Central Bank. Diversify your income stream with different currencies. Keep a reserve in precious metals (yes, gold). Pay down ALL DEBT immediately. And stay nimble. Don't be satisfied earning your won salary and looking back to the US or another gig as your 'future plan'. Use this time to seize upon other opportunities, esp. in Asia.
Because this dance of paper currencies devaluing against one another while money printing and debt assumption goes on as far as the eye cannot end well. |
the amount of errors here is mind boggling
you realize people have been saying the same thing for 50+ years right? |
Uh huh. And this is just a temporary blip, a small recession on the inevitable march towards our permanent bull market.
How does it feel to be one of the sheeple? |
Hahaha "sheeple". Come on, now. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 5:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| ontheway wrote: |
Reality check:
1) When the dollar collapses, the Korean won will race ahead and hit bottom even before the dollar. |
Will it be the same for the yen, and what currencies might fare better in this future, at least relatively? Are they all doomed, or are there any which are not fiat-based? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 6:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| bacasper wrote: |
| ontheway wrote: |
Reality check:
1) When the dollar collapses, the Korean won will race ahead and hit bottom even before the dollar. |
Will it be the same for the yen, and what currencies might fare better in this future, at least relatively? Are they all doomed, or are there any which are not fiat-based? |
Yes, a pox on all our houses I'm afraid. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 7:52 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I'm always awed that people who really know what is happening in the world of high finance spend their time as internet warriors here at Dave's instead of running national economies. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 10:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| I'm always awed that people who really know what is happening in the world of high finance spend their time as internet warriors here at Dave's instead of running national economies. |
Nah, you're just ignorant. You've shown time and again that you're just plain incapable of understanding even the most basic of economic principles. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 10:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| bacasper wrote: |
| ontheway wrote: |
Reality check:
1) When the dollar collapses, the Korean won will race ahead and hit bottom even before the dollar. |
Will it be the same for the yen, and what currencies might fare better in this future, at least relatively? Are they all doomed, or are there any which are not fiat-based? |
They're all fiat based. Moreover, most gold is in the hands of the global banking establishment. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
