Korean Job Discussion Forums

[catman]

[nautilus]

I would call it "calculating" rather than "reasonable".

I don't believe South Koreans would choose "reason over confrontation" if the odds were stacked entirely in their favour...

[The Happy Warrior]

[jvalmer]

I don't care what SK does, as long as NK collapses. Unfortunately much of the younger generation have dreamy like ideals of how NK will 'cooperate' with SK and make things rosey and happy. Sadly, the next president elected will probably be a pro sunshine guy and go back to appeasing NK with money, but will get spit in the face with more missile and nuclear tests.

IMO all the sunshine policy did was prolong NK's survival. The sooner NK collapses the better, and I think 2MB's stance of being more of a hardliner towards NK will speed up the process. I just wish 2MB was politically savvy enough to convince the Chinese to cut NK off and somehow spend the rest of his term to convince the SK public to elect another hardliner. Unfortunately 2MB, and his advisers, don't seem politically astute enough to do this.

[pkang0202]

jvalmer,

So when NK collapses, you'll gladly stick around Korea while the entire South Korea's economy shatters under the weight of suddenly supporting 25 million more people?

All the wealth and savings of South Koreans will disappear when the North collapses. That 1 million dollar apartment in Gangnam will be worth jack. The KOSPI will collapse. Samsung, LG, and all other major Chaebols will go bankrupt. The South Korean government will not be able to bear the burden.


Why do you think South Koreans are so "hesitant" in reunification? If the Koreas unify, South Korea goes back to the way it was in the 1960's. Everything they have worked for will be erased.

This is not just conjecture, it WILL happen. A county with a population of 50 million people can not support another 25 million people instantly. Throw in the fact that North Koreans are malnourished, brainwashed, destitute, and extremely poor.

How would you suggest South Korea deal with that problem?

[goreality]

pkang, I think you are portraying the absolute worst case scenario (other than a reunification with KJ1 as leader), yes it will cost money to bring the north up to southern standards. Will they literally become equal citizens overnight, I doubt that. It will be managed over the course of several years, if not decades. New investment opportunities, and simply the fact that a dangerous neighbor has disappeared, could actually benefit the country. In the end, unification will result in a much more powerful country.

[jvalmer]

The economy may suffer, but SK won't lose their precious electricity, TV's, cars and ubiquitous PC bangs. I highly doubt SK would throw the doors open to NK citizens to stream into the south the same day NK were to collapse.

[pkang0202]

Germany still hasn't recovered from when the Berlin Wall came down. The disparity between East/West Germany is nothing compared to the Koreas. Its been over 20 years and you STILL have major problems in Germany in assimilating both halves.

It is not a worst case scenario. It is a very REAL scenario. This is the reason why the South Korean government is in no hurry to take down North Korea. North Korea has nothing to lose. Their economy sucks. Their people are starving. Their standard of living is in the gutter. They are rock bottom.

South Korea has everything to lose. In the 10, 20, 30 years it takes to get the unified country on the right track, other Asian countries like China, Vietnam, and Japan would choke off any chance the "Unified Korea" has of doing business overseas.

North Koreans sure aren't going to do much. What kind of capital (monetary or intellectual) can they even offer? It would be good if the North Koreans could enter the Korean market and start buying up Hyundai cars, Samsung TV's, and help drive the local economy. However, North Koreans have nothing.


People who say, "Just let the North Collapse" should really look into the after effects of such an event. The massive train wreck that would be NK collapse would make the IMF crisis look like a cakewalk.

[jvalmer]

I understand not wanting them to collapse, but ignoring their aggressive actions and blindly handing them millions of dollars is not the way.

China will prop up NK for only so long, it could be 5, 10 or even 50 years. But they will eventually pull support for the county if it doesn't change it ways. And based on the last 20 years it won't. It's almost certain that NK will collapse at some point in the future and they will be at the same dismal economic level. The later it happens the greater the difference and the more hardship. And Japan, China and the US isn't going to stand idly by and let SK handle the financial cost on their own. It's in the interest of all those countries to help develop NK.

Also, the average West German's lifestyle hasn't changed much since unification. The average South Korean's standard of living will not go down, it may stagnate though, unless SK planners are totally incompetent and decide to open up the DMZ to allow unrestricted access to SK in the event of a sudden collapse. What you'll most likely see is NK being more like a colony of SK where movement for NK citizens out of the country is restricted.

And how are countries going to 'choke' off Korea doing business overseas. Do you expect Hyundai and Samsung to close down their overseas operations? They will continue doing business as they usually do, but with the added option of throwing up a factory in NK for a cheaper price.

[Captain Corea]

Lets be clear though, the recent elections were not the presidency nor the national assembly - they were mainly for Gu offices.

[Senior]

A "reunification" of the two Koreas would be hugely disruptive, and one of the greatest upheavals in history. Obviously the border would have to be maintained in the short term.

Pkang, you talk like the North would have to be brought up to teh South's standard of living immediately. This simply is going to be the case. The immediate effect would be incredibly good for the North. They would have aid flooding in from all over the world. When private property and freer markets are allowed to work, the people will be able to independently feed themselves in a short time. The cheap labor alone, would go along way to decompensating some of the expense for the south.

The North will be looking to industrialize, which will create a massive boon for southern construction, manufacturing, engineering, whatever.

Long term, the South probably will take a minor hit to its long run trend line. However, this will be more than offset by the exponential increase in living standards for the North Korean peasants.

I don't see any reason to predict disaster for the south. The North has nothing, but neither did the South at the end of the war. The North has a massive labor pool that has a common language with the south.

[HijackedTw1light]

Any reunification scenario presented is speculation. However, saying that things will go back to the 1960s and all South Koreans' savings will be wiped out is obviously way over the top.

In any case, people who are mad at 2MB aren't mad because they think his actions will cause reunification. That's not their thought process at all.

[TheUrbanMyth]

[Moldy Rutabaga]

Partly I look at the election outcome and say, "What a bunch of pantywaists. Don't you get tired of paying this protection racket?" But in more sober moments I have to agree that the country needs to strike a delicate balance between allowing this sort of flagrant act of terror and causing a chain of events leading to mutual calamity. The president has had to act carefully. One analyst said it was brilliant for 2PM to blame North Korea and not Great Leader personally, which would allow the country to save face by denouncing whoever ordered it.

What strikes me about the entire situation is how cold-bloodedly calculating each country is. South Korea pretends it wants to reunify, but actually doesn't want to just yet. China pretends it's brothers with a country it can barely stand in order to stave off a failed state full of UN soldiers on its border. North Korea acts gonzo but is actually very skilled at maintaining the world's largest gangsterocracy through threats and criminal actions.

None of us knows how the end will come, but I think South Korea would optimally prefer to have a Chinese-UN-US-Korean occupation force run North Korea for years or decades until the country was reasonably stable and self-sufficient. It wouldn't be safe to simply allow millions of people to move south; many of them would be hostile, or at best very difficult to assimilate. Reunification would be a very gradual process.

Maybe I hate people too much? One of the visions that chills me is not Seoul being shelled but the fate of the large patch of undisturbed land on the DMZ, filled with rare and fragile animals and plants. I worry that it would be paved the next day, with a Lotte Safari park and most of the animals turning up in traditional medicine shops the only reminder.

[caniff]