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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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 Posted: Sat May 01, 2010 8:44 am Post subject: US military accepts peak oil theory |
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply
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The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.
The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India."
The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with "an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments."
The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has turned peak oil � the moment when demand exceeds supply � from a distant threat to a more immediate risk. |
I used to disregard the peak oil theory. I'm convinced of it now. The energy industry will be unable to keep up with demand. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat May 01, 2010 8:58 am Post subject: |
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| Last night I had dinner with someone who works for the Dept. of Energy. She said it's BS. Well not necessarily BS, but not as serious a problem as it is made out to be. We're not in danger of having an oil supply problem in our lifetimes. And it came from a well-educated, dedicated democrat who is not a fan of big oil. Perhaps I should have questioned her more to figure out why she was so nonchalant about it. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat May 01, 2010 9:00 am Post subject: |
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| And the DoD has always been concerned about energy resources, and for good reason since it is an essential component to military operations. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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.38 Special
Joined: 08 Jul 2009
Location: Pennsylvania
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| Posted: Sat May 01, 2010 9:20 am Post subject: |
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I don't know much about petroleum or its reserves. I've never seen the raw data. I wouldn't know what I was looking at if I did.
But I do know traditional wisdom says, "Don't make a habit of pissing in the lake, because sooner or later there will be more piss than lake." In other words, treat all resources with the respect necessary to manage a limited resource.
I'd really like to see more "Green Hornet" jobs from the military. While perhaps not necessarily useful on the battlefield, Bio-Blend fuels for aircraft is certainly a welcomed technology -- and that's just a single, anecdotal example. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Sat May 01, 2010 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Peak oil is real, but it's a monetary problem. There's actually more oil out there than we know what to do with, but it is all controlled by cartels. Oil scarcity is artificially induced (including blatant price fixing) and there is no real competition to bring the prices down. Also, the real cause of peak oil is monetary inflation. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 5:04 am Post subject: |
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Oxford Study Sparks New Round of "Peak Oil" Debate
The debate about �peak oil� flared up again following a new report from Oxford University claiming that conventional oil reserves are inflated by a third and that added reserves from non-conventional sources are giving a false sense of security.
The report from Oxford�s Smith School, headed by Britain�s former chief scientist, Sir David King, said it is an �open secret� that OPEC inflated its reserve figures in the 1980s as it was seeking to claim market share, and that official sources, such as the International Energy Agency, continue to use these inflated figures.
Conventional reserves should be put at 850 billion to 900 billion barrels, instead of 1,150 billion to 1,350 billion, the Oxford experts say. They estimate that supply will �peak� in about 2014 � that is, demand will outstrip supply for the first time.
Deepwater discoveries such as the Tupi field offshore Brazil, estimated to hold 5 billion to 8 billion barrels of oil, do not really change the picture, the study says. Fossil fuels in oil sands and shale formations are much more expensive to recover and have yet to be proven economically viable. Moreover, the Oxford experts say, the very recovery of these reserves generates significantly more carbon emissions than traditional drilling.
The oil and gas industry disputes the notion of peak oil, arguing that new discoveries can keep pace with demand. However, based on IEA data on the rate of decline in existing reserves, new finds with the equivalent of Saudi Arabia�s reserves would have to be found every four years just to keep steady.
The Oxford study warns that developed countries are too complacent about future supply, in contrast to a rapidly growing emerging economy like China, which is actively seeking energy resources around the globe. Industrial countries should focus more on energy efficiency, and on alternatives to fossil fuels, such as transporting freight by airships instead of conventional transportation. |
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oxford-Study-Sparks-New-Round-of-Peak-Oil-Debate.html
To prepare for the decline in supply, states should be providing major incentives for advances in efficiency (research) and efficient use (hybrids, smaller cars etc). I seldom advocate for the the state to Do Something. A dramatic, sustained and sudden rise in oil prices would be crippling for the American economy. Immediate preparations are needed now. |
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gakduki
Joined: 16 Jul 2009
Location: Passed out on line 2 going in circles
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| Posted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 8:48 am Post subject: |
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Some people suggest we have already hit peak oil. However I find that hard to believe. There are less and less discoveries being made, and what is found is very hard to reach. There is plenty of oil however, it is hard to extract, the tar sands and pits of Canada and Venezuela are massive. There are huge reserves in the arctic and deep sea as well. But it is costly to extract and due to a recent disaster even more so. The era of cheap energy has come to a grinding halt. Only a fool will believe technology will save us, perhaps in the long run, but one can bet we will be charged severely for it.
Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are arguably being fought for the control of reserves and distribution channels. More wars will likely follow. The problem is, even with cars and appliances becoming more energy efficient, we will still have problems with industrial production, transportation, agriculture, and heating requirements. Demand will outstrip supply and the price of everything will rise. It is a serious problem we will face in the near future.
Anyone who brushes it off lightly is either very optimistic or naive. |
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Koveras
Joined: 09 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| I hope we're wise enough to scale back consumption rather than shift everything into nuclear power. Probably not. |
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