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US Budget Simulator

 
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The Happy Warrior



Joined: 10 Feb 2010

PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 10:49 pm    Post subject: US Budget Simulator Reply with quote

Fun.

I got the Budget down to 56% of GDP by 2018 (Target is only 60%, but this figure doesn't include Fannie/Freddie exposure) without placing higher taxes on the rich, outside of totally repealing the 2001/2003 tax cuts. Of course, I did establish a 5% national VAT, imposed a Financial Crisis fee on the banks, limited itemized deductions for high-earners, reduced spending on ship building, sold gov't assets, and raised the retirement and Medicare ages by a year. Even more painful were raising Medicare Premiums, freezing discretionary spending for three years, cutting the Federal workforce 5%, cutting foreign economic aid in half, and slowing Social Security Benefit growth. I didn't touch the Health Care Reform law, only repealing the tax on high-cost tax plans.

I was surprised by the number of things that were easy choices, i.e., I would have made them without a budget crisis. Those included: Carbon Tax, $0.10 increase in Gas Tax, rapidly scaling down commitment in Iraq/Afghanistan, Eliminating Farm and Biofuel subsidies, cutting National Highway fund by 25%, abolishing the Mortgage Deductions, and Canceling TARP.

I also had money left over to: Increase number of troops by 46,000, increase mass transit funding, gradually increase dependent deduction from $3,500 to $7,000, and further extend the R&D Tax Credit and the "American Opportunity" College Credit.
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Fox



Joined: 04 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I lowered the debt to 50% of GDP by 2018. Some key points:

Military & Defense: I took the most anti-war options availible with regards to the military; if I had been given the option to end these wars rather than simply reduce the troops to 30,000 by 2018, I would have done so. I cancelled the missile defense system and accepted the proposed weapon system cuts, but I expanded veterans income security benefits. I also didn't touch foreign aid, though I'd certainly consider it in a more nuanced simulation where you could cut or increase aid to certain countries case-by-case.

Domestic and Taxation: I let the tax cuts expire and I cancelled TARP. I also cancelled the school breakfast program (needless).

Social Security: I raised the retirement age to 68; with people living longer it's only natural that they should be retiring later, especially given that more and more work is not physically strenuous. I also progressively reduced benefits, protecting low and medium earners, and mandated that new state and local workers must constribute to Social Security.

Health Care: I reduced spending on graduate medical education and enacted medical malpractice reform. I didn't tinker with the health care reform bill otherwise; my preference would be to repeal the current reform bill and replace it with a better system, but that option is not availible, so I left it as is.

Other: I eliminated certain outdated programs, cut the federal work force by 5%, and cut ear marks in half. Pretty straightfoward I think. I also increased mass transit funding.

Revenue: I increased user fees across the board (in actuality, I'd like to simply reduce spending on things like airport security rather than increase the price of them, but if we're going to have them, they need to be paid for), reformed the international tax code, increased the gas tax (this is intended in concert with more funding of mass transit to try to begin a shift of Americans away from automotive use; in a more complex simulation I'd be campaigning for cities to participate in this at a local level with regards to their city planning), and improved tax collection. I also raised the SS cap to cover 90% of earnings. I avoided the temptation to impose a financial crisis responsibility fee, I didn't tax carbon emissions, and I tried to minimize additional tax burden on the wealthy. I also didn't enact the VAT, which would have been a lot of extra money.

Honestly, I feel this was too easy. I would have preferred more options and a more challenging goal to reach. I also would have liked to see more hypothetical options that would have lured me into wanting to spend more; I could have cut quite a bit more out of the budget with a clean conscience had I cared to, but there were very few things that genuinely enticed me to spend more. Fun game, though.
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Senior



Joined: 31 Jan 2010

PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I massively cut both taxes and entitlements. I managed to get it to 62%, but that is misleading as cutting tax would improve the economy, meaning more total tax revenue for the govt.

You could also only reduce some programs which I would cut entirely. Farm subsidies for instance.
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mmstyle



Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: wherever

PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't like that simulator. Where is the option to make companies pay for all of the external costs that they are pushing onto the governments (and therefore, the taxpayer)?

I deleted a huge soapbox post, but, in short, if companies were forced to pay for all the externalized costs of doing business, I am not sure any of this would be necessary. This model seems extremely slanted, like it assumes that the taxpayers (ie, the little people) have to foot the bill.

One example: it says to change or repeal the health care bill, but offers no alternative! Very slanted!
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chellovek



Joined: 29 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 11:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Darn it doesn't work on my browser at school. I was going to go into complete libertarian-loon meltdown and abolish everything.
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Fox



Joined: 04 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 11:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chellovek wrote:
Darn it doesn't work on my browser at school. I was going to go into complete libertarian-loon meltdown and abolish everything.


I tried it. If you eliminate or reduce every tax possible and eliminate or reduce every benefit possible, you end up no where near the 60% debt goal. The simulator simply doesn't give you enough options with regards to programs to reduce or cut.
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chellovek



Joined: 29 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fox wrote:
chellovek wrote:
Darn it doesn't work on my browser at school. I was going to go into complete libertarian-loon meltdown and abolish everything.


I tried it. If you eliminate or reduce every tax possible and eliminate or reduce every benefit possible, you end up no where near the 60% debt goal. The simulator simply doesn't give you enough options with regards to programs to reduce or cut.


Bah, I'm disappointed now.
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The Happy Warrior



Joined: 10 Feb 2010

PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fox wrote:
The simulator simply doesn't give you enough options with regards to programs to reduce or cut.


And how could it?

The proposals are taken from the most common proposals out there, and also those most likely to have a chance in Congress. This actually makes sense. For example, reducing the troops in Iraq & Afghanistan to zero by next year is politically impossible (btw, that reduction to 30,000 was by 2013, not 2018). And yes, so-called 'libertarian-loon meltdown' is a political pipe-dream.

My personal belief is that we should cut corporate taxes entirely as they exist and replace it with a capital gains increase accompanied by licensing fees for corporations (an annual tax based on either the corporation's existing assets or gross profits, rather than gross minus expenses, which is subject to all kinds of abuse). But its not on the list. Why? Because I'm a political nobody and that idea won't fly.

Anyway in response to Fox's detailed list, its surprisingly a lot like mine, except even more fiscally disciplined. Outside of the defense bracket, its pretty similar. But I don't understand how Fox got as low as 50% without enacting a VAT or raising the top income bracket to ~44% for the wealthy. I'm also surprised to see Fox cutting those 5% of the Federal workforce (I did so very reluctantly, and only ultimately because I think the Federal workforce is too large as it is), not enacting a carbon tax (it lets you choose whether its that or cap-in-trade, you know), but especially Fox not enacting a VAT.
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Jeonmunka



Joined: 05 Oct 2009

PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2010 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I kept 5% of the Fed workforce as who else will implement my glorious plans towards self sufficiency.
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Italy37612



Joined: 25 Jan 2010
Location: Somewhere

PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2010 11:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have my own US budget simulation. I leave it in the toilet every morning (assuming I remember to eat my fiber) Very Happy
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The Happy Warrior



Joined: 10 Feb 2010

PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Results of the Budget Simulator
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Leon



Joined: 31 May 2010

PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Got to 58%. Cut as much military as I could as well as things like ear marks, selling off government assets, and raising retirement. Increased foreign aid, did some other things.
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