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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 7:52 pm Post subject: Japan's Election on August 30th; And Ramifications of |
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Japan prepares for political upheaval
An interesting feature of the Japanese political system is the dominance of the center-right Liberal Democratic Party for over 50 years since the conclusion of the American occupation of Japan. This has caused Thomas Friedman to call Japan 'the perfect Communist country,' because it has a truly democratic one-party rule. Well, it looks like the more worker-friendly DPJ has the lead in this election.
| The Economist wrote: |
| [The incumbent] Mr Aso has questioned the DPJ�s ability to pay for expensive campaign promises, such as a �26,000 ($280) a month child allowance to push up the birth rate, heavily subsidised schooling, dropping road tolls and income support to farmers. But these counter-attacks may not be enough to quell voters� dissatisfaction with the long rule of the LDP and the leadership of gaffe-prone Mr Aso as economic conditions remain difficult. |
Apparently, the DPJ is also critical of Japan's close ties to Washington, but I doubt the DPJ will do anything beyond a few symbolic gestures of decoupling, each of which Obama will probably understand and accept.
Last edited by Kuros on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:49 am; edited 1 time in total |
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E_athlete
Joined: 09 Jun 2009
Location: Korea sparkling
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| Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:49 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm sure God will sort things out. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 11:59 pm Post subject: Re: Japan's Election on August 30th |
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| Kuros wrote: |
Japan prepares for political upheaval
An interesting feature of the Japanese political system is the dominance of the center-right Liberal Democratic Party for over 50 years since the conclusion of the American occupation of Japan. This has caused Thomas Friedman to call Japan 'the perfect Communist country,' because it has a truly democratic one-party rule. Well, it looks like the more worker-friendly DPJ has the lead in this election.
| The Economist wrote: |
| [The incumbent] Mr Aso has questioned the DPJ�s ability to pay for expensive campaign promises, such as a �26,000 ($280) a month child allowance to push up the birth rate, heavily subsidised schooling, dropping road tolls and income support to farmers. But these counter-attacks may not be enough to quell voters� dissatisfaction with the long rule of the LDP and the leadership of gaffe-prone Mr Aso as economic conditions remain difficult. |
Apparently, the DPJ is also critical of Japan's close ties to Washington, but I doubt the DPJ will do anything beyond a few symbolic gestures of decoupling, each of which Obama will probably understand and accept. |
You've heard the expression "Japan Inc." - this is basically true. Whoever is elected is basically just a figurehead reading from a teleprompter. It is doubtful the DPJ will have any power to change the status quo.
They did oppose (ostensibly at least) the conversion of Japan Post into a private bank, which was good, but a very meek effort. Taking the public's savings money (around $2 trillion worth) and effectively placing it into the bankers' hands is not good for the Japanese people.
In terms of the US military, this will most certainly be dealt with under the table, and even if operations are scaled down and the DPJ claims they pressured the US into it, it will just be nationalistic drum beating. In reality it is the US that is losing the most money on keeping the large bases there anyway (Japan has benefited greatly since WWII on saved military expenditures). |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2009 1:45 am Post subject: |
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Where the Economist provides an introduction, ATimes delivers with a more detailed view. The following snippet just tells a little about Hatoyama's family.
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Blue-blood politician
The 177-centimeter-tall Hatoyama, 62 . . . is a scion of the country's wealthiest and most politically influential family, which has been nicknamed "Japan's Kennedys" by local media.
Hatoyama is a fourth-generation politician. His paternal great-grandfather Kazuo was speaker of the House of Representatives of Japan's Diet (parliament) from 1896 to 1897 in the Meiji era. Subsequently, Kazuo also served as vice minister of foreign affairs and as president of Waseda University, one of Japan's top universities.
Yukio's paternal grandfather Ichiro was three times prime minister between 1954 and 1956, and a founder and the first president of the ruling LDP. In 1951, he restored diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union and enabled Japan to become a United Nations member, his earnest political ambition before retirement.
His father Iichiro is a former vice minister of finance and a former foreign minister. His younger brother Kunio is a LDP Lower House member and served as an internal affairs and communications minister under the current Taro Aso administration until June 2009.
Moreover, Hatoyama's maternal grandfather was the late Shojiro Ishibashi, founder of Bridgestone Corp, the world's largest tiremaker, headquartered in Tokyo. Bridgestone was named after Ishibashi; In Japanese, ishi means a "stone", and bashi(/hashi), a "bridge".
Hatoyama's mother Yasuko, 86, is called "Godmother" in Japan's political circles, as she has provided significant sums of money inherited from her father Shojiro Ishibashi to help her two sons pursue their political ambitions, especially when they created the DPJ in 1996 by donating several billions of yen. Younger brother Kunio subsequently returned to the LDP as he felt the Democrats had moved too far left from its centrist roots, while Yukio remained a major figure in the DPJ.
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The Hatoyama family is related to three former prime ministers: Ichiro Hatoyama, Hayato Ikeda, who advocated the "income-doubling plan" in the 1960s, and Kiichi Miyazawa, who served as premier from 1991 to 1993. Yukio Hatoyama owns about 8.6 billion yen (US$91.9 million) as personal assets, according to the monthly literary magazine Bungei Shunju published on August 10. He has 3.5 million shares of Bridgestone, which amounts to about 6 billion yen, according to the October 2008 financial disclosure regarding Diet members' salaries set forth by law. |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2009 3:06 am Post subject: |
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| Japan's fertility rate is a problem, but I have a hard time imagining this child subsidy is the solution. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2009 7:17 am Post subject: |
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| Japanese politics is a mess. The LDP was shown the light by Koizumi but then went back into its hole once he stepped down. The DPJ? Yeah, its platform is, "We're not the LDP!" Its members are united by their hatred for the LDP, nothing more. If the DPJ gets the majority, it won't get anything passed, and will fail even more miserably than the LDP. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 8:21 am Post subject: |
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Japan has taken corporatism to a wall. I doubt any meaningful change will come from this election. Anyways, here's how Mr. Market might see it (in the short term):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aa7Sf52dOAg4
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Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese bonds will decline while stocks rise after Japan�s opposition Democratic Party of Japan swept to power, said Yuuki Sakurai, chief executive officer of Fukoku Capital Management Inc.
The DPJ won at least 268 of 480 seats to secure a majority in Japan�s lower house, public broadcaster NHK projected. The party may almost triple its seats to more than 300, NHK and Fuji Television reported earlier. Stocks will rise on optimism DPJ policies to stimulate domestic demand will boost growth, while financing for those measures will result in further bond issuance, sending prices down, Tokyo-based Sakurai said.
Ten-year government bond yields will probably rise to 1.7 percent by year-end, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average will advance to as high as 12,000, according to the investor.
�It�s a landslide victory for the DPJ and the equity market may remain excited for a couple of days or even a couple of weeks,� said Sakurai, who helps manage about 800 billion yen ($8.6 billion) in assets. Financing for the party�s spending plans �will have to come from government bonds,� he said.
The DPJ faces accelerating deflation and record unemployment as it seeks to craft an economic recovery in a nation that only last quarter emerged from its deepest postwar recession. Japan�s consumer prices fell at an unprecedented 2.2 percent in July from a year earlier, while the jobless rate climbed to 5.7 percent, the statistics bureau said Aug. 28.
Prime Minister Taro Aso�s Liberal Democratic Party lost about two-thirds of its 303 legislators in the chamber that chooses the premier. The LDP ruled Japan for all but 10 months since 1955. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 8:52 am Post subject: |
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TOKYO (AP) - Japan's ruling conservative party suffered a crushing defeat in elections Sunday as voters overwhelmingly cast their ballots in favor of a left-of-center opposition camp that has promised to rebuild the economy and breathe new life into the country after 54 years of virtual one-party rule, media projections said.
The opposition Democratic Party of Japan was set to win 300 of the 480 seats in the lower house of parliament, ousting the Liberal Democrats, who have governed Japan for all but 11 months since 1955, according to projections by all major Japanese TV networks.
The vote was seen as a barometer of frustrations over Japan's worst economic slump since World War II and a loss of confidence in the ruling Liberal Democrats' ability to tackle tough problems such as the rising national debt and rapidly aging population.
National broadcaster NHK, using projections based on exit polls of roughly 400,000 voters, said the Democratic Party was set to win 300 seats and the Liberal Democrats only about 100. Official results were expected early Monday. |
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090830/D9AD66880.html |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:51 am Post subject: |
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Wobbles in the US-Japan Alliance
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What irks the [Obama] administration is the suggestion by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama that Japan might renege on a military agreement that arranges for a helicopter base for American marines to be relocated from crowded Futenma in southern Okinawa to a shallow sea site just off Okinawa's eastern coast, near the existing Camp Schwab. As part of the package, 8,000 marines are to be relocated to Guam. This is all part a sweeping "military realignment" on the part of America.
The agreement was 13 years in the making. But, as Katsuya Okada, the foreign minister, pointed out to my Tokyo colleague and me the other day, all the politicians opposed to the Camp Schwab site won their seats in the general election. "So there is a discrepancy," he explained, "between the thinking of the former [LDP] government and public sentiment." |
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The Happy Warrior
Joined: 10 Feb 2010
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| Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:55 pm Post subject: |
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Hatoyama's handling of the Okinawa Futenma airbase decision has prompted his resignationas Prime Minister. Mr. Ozawa has also resigned as the DPJ's Secretary-General.
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Opinion polls taken after the Futenma decision also showed a slump in Mr Hatoyama�s support, down from 71% nine months ago to as low as 17%. This lengthened the DPJ�s odds in the upper-house election. Some of the party�s lawmakers up for re-election were told by their constituents that Mr Hatoyama�s indecisiveness over Futenma and his financial scandals might cost them their re-election, which led them to openly discuss removing him.
To make things worse for the DPJ, support for the LDP, which voters dealt a long-overdue thrashing to last year, edged ahead for the first time
in the polls this week. |
It looks like Finance Minister Naoto Kan is the favorite to take over. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 1:21 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Japanese politics is a mess. The LDP was shown the light by Koizumi but then went back into its hole once he stepped down. The DPJ? Yeah, its platform is, "We're not the LDP!" Its members are united by their hatred for the LDP, nothing more. If the DPJ gets the majority, it won't get anything passed, and will fail even more miserably than the LDP. |
So far my prediction has turned out correctly. Perhaps Nan can prove me wrong. |
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The Happy Warrior
Joined: 10 Feb 2010
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| Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 6:04 pm Post subject: |
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Subtle Change of Seasons accounts the cabinet appointments of Naoto Kan.
| The Economist wrote: |
Mr Sengoku is a fiscal hawk who will attempt to keep the government�s focus on an issue that Mr Kan grew increasingly concerned about in his previous job as finance minister: the country�s precarious public finances. In an interview with The Economist in March, Mr Sengoku was shockingly candid about the dangers Japan faced by running a gross debt-to-GDP ratio of around 200%. Worries about Greece�s fiscal sustainability have brought Japan to a �turning point�, he said. The government will require far more fiscal prudence in the future. Mr Sengoku was also scathing about Japan�s habit of using public money to rescue bankrupt firms.
Mr Edano shares Mr Sengoku�s concerns about Greece�and what it means for Japan. In many ways, these two appointments, both lawyers by training, are considered closer to each other than they are to the new prime minister. Which makes Mr Kan�s selection of Mr Edano to run the party all the braver. |
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