Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Konglishman]

While I am no fan of wikileaks, I do find it interesting that one of their leaks appears to show the notion of China wanting to keep North Korea as a buffer state, is no longer valid.

[waynehead]

Yeah, that was a pretty big surprise, and potentially huge news.

[le-paul]

The news also mentioned this morning something about the Chinese thinking North korea behaves like a spoilt little child and being tired of them.

[crossmr]

[TL]

This will only add to NK's paranoia even if China's leaders reassure KJI today that the leaks don't reflect China's position. I hope this doesn't push the regime into doing something more provocative (i.e. shell a town or airport).

[crescent]

Why would anyone believe there is any real truth to what the Chinese officials said?
The supposed quotes come from a Korean ex-minister.

The only quote directly coming from the Chinese was that NK is behaving like a spoiled child. Yeah, that happens when big daddy looks the other way and keeps buying toys.

[Yaya]

Who knows what the Chinese really mean and well, let's see what happens if and when the communist regime in the North collapses. Who knows, there could be a collapse or it could be a false alarm.

And yes, Korean reunification gets more attractive to the Chinese if that means the exit of U.S. forces on the peninsula.

[grnmle]

This is very interesting news. Anyone care to comment on the timing of the leak? To me it would appear to totally favor the Obama administration. He really needs something positive to build on. The unification of Korea would be an enormous step towards cementing his legacy. If nothing happens here he will struggle to keep his Presidency. On the other hand, if something like this were to happen he'd totally eclipse Clinton, putting him somewhere near Roosevelt. At least, that's my opinion.

I can't see the US leaving completely even with a fully unified Korea. If the US left Korea. They would be asked to leave Japan too. I can't see either one happening. Despite being financially weakened at the moment, the U.S. is still the bad boy on the block and everyone has to behave. I don't expect to see too much change in my lifetime, unification or not. The U.S., barring total nuclear annihilation, will remain one of the greatest powers on earth.

As for the news. It could potentially do a lot to speed along the process of unification. If China is on board the time is now to take down Kim Jong Il. It's a win win situation for everyone in my opinion. This could open up a lot of jobs. Innocent North Koreans could begin to live in our world. They'd surely work in factories to earn money to but their first Nikes.

It could be like another Iraq but, it'd be a situation where the world could actually feel good to see Pyongyang in flames. Personally, from what I've read the place is worse than hell unless you are related to the SOB, even then...Anyway, I feel it would be a step in the right direction and a cause for optimism.

Financially speaking the U.S. and China are very dependent on one another. It would be awesome to see some cooperation toward a regime change. After the dirty work, the Koreas could have a referendum concerning unification and then work toward that end. Initially it would not be easy, obviously. But, the potential for growth is enormous. In the long run, nothing better could happen.

It may not happen soon. But, I truly feel the sooner this happens, the better it will be for the world at large. Just have to prey that the amount of innocent people killed in such an event is minimal.

[InDaGu]

You know who does have a problem with reunification?

South Korea

The ROK absolutely does not want to take on the burden of 24 million people, it would cripple the economy. While many South Koreans want this someday, it is not in the country's best interest to do it now (maybe ever).

[grnmle]

Why do you say it is not in it's interests? Obviously any unification would have to take into consideration the fate of the North Korean populace. Taking a long view I can see nothing but good happening.

With a more stable Korea investors would be more interested. It would open up an entirely new market. It wouldn't be too long before the standard of living of people in the north improved.

I realize the process of unification would not be free from problems but, if you ask anyone in the ROK if they would rather be living in a unified Korea I am sure the answer would be overwhelmingly yes.

It might be a good thing to control the movement of people for the first while. Companies could come in and begin setting up infrastructure that could lead toward a market economy. I don't see the movement of people as much a problem come to think of it. It's not like people are going to hop in their Hyundai's and take a Sunday drive down to Seoul. However within a few years that would be entirely possible.

[Konglishman]

[AsiaESLbound]

Everyone having freedom of movement throughout Korea including the border with China would open things up to the world round here. It is neat to think you could take a train, bus, or car up to Beijing, Vladivostok, or even London from here. Eliminating the conflict involving the 2 Korea's would encourage people to come enabling the economy and culture to further develop. I honestly don't think the South wants to truly open it up at this point and they are in fact comfortable staying in their cocoon.

[wishfullthinkng]

[interestedinhanguk]

I don't see this as too surprising. The truth is, PRC-DPRK relations are not nearly as chummy as the Western media likes to play it up as. They've never been great friends, they just push themselves as ideological allies in that they're "communist" (to some degree or another). Even during the Korean War the Chinese were critical of the Norks' treatments of POWs. Right now, China's main interest in North Korea is financial; they have resource rights there.

One must also remember, SK and the US are very important to China, as well, economically speaking.

I also read an interesting point today (can't remember where). Another reason for the Chinese growing tired of Nork misbehavior is that it ticks off Japan. This encourages re-militarization of Japan, something China wants to avoid.

[rollo]

The Chinese sent a signal that things are different. When the U.s. moved the George Washington into the yellow sea not a peep from china. The next day a Chinese professor said maybe this is saying "you are on your own" to North Korea. I dont think they would tolerate an invasion but a limited airstrike probably wouldnt upset them too much. Yes it is the remillitarization of Japan that is what China fears. I think an agreement is nearing that the zone around Seoul becomes a U.N protected area, the North has to withdraw from the area. Seoul is no longer a hostage and the North then knows that it has to behave.

South Korea and Japan are major business partners of the Chinese. North Korea is a beggar hassling them for money. Things are changing very very fast. I was chatting with a couple of Chinese profs about this, they are both party members, of course they have no insight into what is going on in the upper levels of government but they pretty well agreed that North korea is more trouble than they are worth and that a South Korean /U.S action would be welcomed.