Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Radius]

SK at it again. It wasn't enough to save face Monday. Thursday's military drill will be largest yet near the border:
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE6BL01S20101222

Me thinks someone is begging for war.

[bbud656]

If the situations were reversed we would be cursing the North for stiring the pot. I understand that our troops have to be prepared, but now it seems like they are really sticking their tongue out. At least wait until spring when the ground is thawed so if it does set the North off we could slow them down easier.

[Provence]

I am beginning to think the South is just using these drills as another tactic to lower the value of the won.

[ESL Milk "Everyday]

I'm beginning to think that they know the North won't respond.

My theory (just a theory) is that they're trying to force a revolt in the North by not backing down like they always used to... and are basically calling their bluff. The new leader, who was trying to impress his people by bombing that island, will suddenly have to make decisions that he isn't prepared to make... and with the currency fiasco last year and now this, the people will need something enormous to swallow him as their leader... and he has nothing to show them.

Nobody wants a war-- wars only happen when someone stands to gain, and in this one, everyone loses. This is just the South finally standing up to a big stupid bully and slapping him in the face, and the bully is going to stand there and do nothing.

There's no way they can spin bombing that island into anything positive now-- they were expecting everyone to back down and give in, but now that that's not happening, they're screwed. Now people know that they're not just some wild card, that China does NOT have their back, that the people in the North are showing signs of dissent, etc... they're weak now, and this is the push that will send them into collapse.

The South is trying to break the North and is pushing for reunification... and it's going to be a reality very soon.

I'm not at all worried.

[bbud656]

Unless instead of people revolting because of the lack of leadership the military commanders revolt and there is a coup and the new leader is more crazy, brash than the old one. Also, I think a unification would hit the South's economy pretty hard. Don't have a lot of Won sitting in the bank if this happens.

[nathanrutledge]

People have been saying it'll collapse for years and it hasn't. I'm not holding my breath.

While this is saber rattling, I think it's also indicative of the woeful inadequacies that the North exposed when it shelled the island and sunk the ship. The South might have the technological superiority, but the discipline just isn't there. This seems like a) a good show of force to the North, and b) more training that the South desperately needs.

[Old fat expat]

Would the North retaliating give the South (or some other party) an excuse to do a preemptive strike on some nuclear facilities?

[bobbybigfoot]

Ah geez.

First, the drill on Monday.
Then the Christmas tree.
Now this.

Not smart.

[ESL Milk "Everyday]

[Yaya]

South Korea called North Korea's bluff by staging a military drill in the face of threats this week, but South Koreans are now more wary about their belligerent neighbor and less willing to tolerate the North's fits of aggression.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704259704576033211932431364.html

[ESL Milk "Everyday]

The first war was about cold war tensions/the superpowers drawing lines in the sand... but what would a second war even be about? Hate? Frustration? Not takin' crap from nobody?

The North wants the world to think they're unpredictable because it's how they get what they want... they had to make the world believe that they were capable of starting a nuclear war in order to fear them into compliance... but it's pretty obvious that it's not really like that. They've already blinked... it's a matter of time now.

Reunification is about to happen, and it will be on the South's terms... and it will be pretty exciting to be here when that happens.

[oldfatfarang]

I have a theory that this latest drill is a cunning plan by the South K govt. to decrease my earnings when I cash up in Feb 2012.

I kinda thought that something was up. I was at a train station (down south) in the weekend, when a whole train load of tanks went through. I didn't notice them at first, but I saw all the Korean passengers look startled, and then I saw the tanks - going North.

Good luck.

[jvalmer]

[Steelrails]

One thing to consider is that the South can "stress" the North's military. The North cannot maintain a full alert posture or mobilization for an extended period of time. It doesn't have to do an arms race, it simply has to force the Norks to maintain a greater degree of mobilization and readiness than they can support. NKs aircraft and vehicles would suffer more breakdowns. Supplies would become scarcer, fuel would be consumed.

I'd guess the Norks have 30 days at most (probably a lot less) of constant high-level readiness before they would see serious, maybe even catastrophic declines in efficiency and effectivness.

[bobbybigfoot]