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chungbukdo
Joined: 22 Aug 2010
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 Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:13 am Post subject: Esl in korea after american economic collapse |
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either the US is headed into another recession again when qe2 ends and that will mean higher unemployment, especially in the worse off states like california which is full of korean americans. Or bernanke begins qe3 which causes foreign creditor nations to sell offamerican treasury bills, leaving the federal reserve in a bind where it will eventually have to monetize the debt, creating very high inflation.
In either of these scenarios I would expect thousands of unemployed korean americans to move to korea on f visas. In the latter case they might be employed but facing higher costs of living. Earning in the korean won and paying back their US debt like students loans would be desirable.
In the event that tens of thousands of fvisa holders move to korea there will be a greatersupply of labor and thus lowered real wages. It might be hard for e visa holders to get jobs since the process for hiring an f visa holder is quicker and easier[/b][/i] |
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koreatimes
Joined: 07 Jun 2011
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:26 am Post subject: Re: Esl in korea after american economic collapse |
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| chungbukdo wrote: |
either the US is headed into another recession again when qe2 ends and that will mean higher unemployment, especially in the worse off states like california which is full of korean americans. Or bernanke begins qe3 which causes foreign creditor nations to sell offamerican treasury bills, leaving the federal reserve in a bind where it will eventually have to monetize the debt, creating very high inflation.
In either of these scenarios I would expect thousands of unemployed korean americans to move to korea on f visas. In the latter case they might be employed but facing higher costs of living. Earning in the korean won and paying back their US debt like students loans would be desirable.
In the event that tens of thousands of fvisa holders move to korea there will be a greatersupply of labor and thus lowered real wages. It might be hard for e visa holders to get jobs since the process for hiring an f visa holder is quicker and easier[/b][/i] |
Not likely. This is just fear-mongering (much like what happened when people from the Philippines and India were supposed to move here en masse and take our jobs). Or EngKey. Or any other of the many "doom and gloom" scenarios that have been posted on here.
2 reasons. The Koreans who moved overseas usually did so at huge personal cost. They are not likely to move back or want their children to do so. Many end up working at small stores or dry cleaners but stay...so living in the West is clearly more desirable than back in Korea.
And as we all know, school owners prefer the "Western look". There are plenty of horror stories on this board about Korean Americans who made the move back and found that it was not all that it was cracked up to be.
Keep in mind that a f-visa means freedom to change jobs with ease...not exactly what school owners and principals are clamoring for. |
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bobrocket
Joined: 26 Jan 2011
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:11 am Post subject: |
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Just my thoughts but it seems easier to get a job with an F visa.
The tables seem to be turning, and it seems it's an employers market.
No immigration hassles, don't need to provide accommodation,
Hate to say it but American grads fresh off the boat are a dime a dozen.
A native English person that just turns up, works then goes home, now that's a different story.
I deal with a few different schools and their dream staff is American's that look pretty, lots of debt, will work cheap and just do what their told.
Now how many people are in that boat?
Just spent how many years at uni, can't find a job at home because your masters in whatever is not good enough(not everyone thou)
Just a little rant.....but as I said, just my thoughts. |
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Ramen
Joined: 15 Apr 2008
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:00 am Post subject: |
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another great predicksion.  |
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Zanniati
Joined: 04 Apr 2011
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:53 am Post subject: Re: Esl in korea after american economic collapse |
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| chungbukdo wrote: |
either the US is headed into another recession again when qe2 ends and that will mean higher unemployment, especially in the worse off states like california which is full of korean americans. Or bernanke begins qe3 which causes foreign creditor nations to sell offamerican treasury bills, leaving the federal reserve in a bind where it will eventually have to monetize the debt, creating very high inflation.
In either of these scenarios I would expect thousands of unemployed korean americans to move to korea on f visas. In the latter case they might be employed but facing higher costs of living. Earning in the korean won and paying back their US debt like students loans would be desirable.
In the event that tens of thousands of fvisa holders move to korea there will be a greatersupply of labor and thus lowered real wages. It might be hard for e visa holders to get jobs since the process for hiring an f visa holder is quicker and easier[/b][/i] |
Well, QE3 will come. We knew it would come when they did QE2. This really isn't a concern in my opinion. Most of the people that worry about this stuff are the ones that don't really know what The Fed does. Which I guess is good since that's what they're counting on.
2nd recession... yeah, maybe. Basically all the new numbers are bad. It's pretty obvious that nothing is working. TBH I dunno what they're going to do to fix it.
As far as E-2 VISA holders, I think we really have an edge by the sheer fact that (a lot of us) are white. I don't see that many people going back to Korea just to teach English either. I'm not sure the job market will really get to that point where people are fleeing the country. Maybe I'm too optimistic.
If you want to really worry, start worrying about the Chinese housing bubble. If that baby pops you wont be able to find a job in any country. |
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nathanrutledge
Joined: 01 May 2008
Location: Marakesh
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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Why do you guys even care? If you're doing your job and improving your skills, you're going to beat the other candidates, no problem. Every time I've moved to a new job, I've gotten more money. Every time I've interviewed, I've had new skills or certifications to talk about.
Some kid who just graduated and has never been overseas - come on over, he has zero chance to compete against me for the jobs I want, and I won't be competing against him for the jobs he wants. So, who cares? |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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| If the American economy collapsed (big if), there would be no esl jobs in Korea. Why would Koreans blow money on learning the language of country with a collapsed economy? |
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nathanrutledge
Joined: 01 May 2008
Location: Marakesh
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| If the American economy collapsed (big if), there would be no esl jobs in Korea. Why would Koreans blow money on learning the language of country with a collapsed economy? |
Because the US economy is still about 4 times larger than the nearest competitors, China/Japan, English is the first or second language of nearly 2 billion people, the South Korean economy is tied to the American economy like laces in a shoe, because if the US economy fails, other economies are going to fail with it (a falling tide lowers all ships), because they are addicted to English like rednecks are to meth, need I go on? |
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RangerMcGreggor
Joined: 12 Jan 2011
Location: Somewhere in Korea
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:33 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| If the American economy collapsed (big if), there would be no esl jobs in Korea. Why would Koreans blow money on learning the language of country with a collapsed economy? |
Because the USA is not the only country that uses English |
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Moldy Rutabaga
Joined: 01 Jul 2003
Location: Ansan, Korea
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:46 pm Post subject: |
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2 reasons. The Koreans who moved overseas usually did so at huge personal cost. They are not likely to move back or want their children to do so. Many end up working at small stores or dry cleaners but stay...so living in the West is clearly more desirable than back in Korea.
And as we all know, school owners prefer the "Western look". There are plenty of horror stories on this board about Korean Americans who made the move back and found that it was not all that it was cracked up to be.
Keep in mind that a f-visa means freedom to change jobs with ease...not exactly what school owners and principals are clamoring for. |
Good explanation, I think. My wife has observed that Koreans in North America tend to be either very well off or very working-class. As the USA declines as a world power (maybe temporarily and maybe not) and its economy stagnates the middle class seems hardest hit, and perhaps those Korean Americans who run little stores or have service jobs will be less affected.
I think there will be more Americans coming here to compete for teaching jobs and I already see far more Americans than Canadians here--a reversal of what I saw six or seven years ago when the Canadian economy was poorer.
But unless something really awful happens with a debt default in the US this summer, I expect the change to be more long-term, and by then China's, Vietnam's, and Thailand's ESL industries are going to be developed enough to absorb them. My long-term prediction for Korea stands that there won't be a glut of foreign teachers, but a shortage. I expect that the government and hogwan owners will be too muleheaded to raise wages and will argue that there's enough qualified Koreans to teach English by then. |
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wishfullthinkng
Joined: 05 Mar 2010
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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| RangerMcGreggor wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| If the American economy collapsed (big if), there would be no esl jobs in Korea. Why would Koreans blow money on learning the language of country with a collapsed economy? |
Because the USA is not the only country that uses English |
this. because there was never any major focus on really learning a second language in the american education system, i regrettably languished through my developmental years only learning english with sprinkles of french and spanish, but not enough to truly be useful besides cordial greetings and making comments about my pantaloons.
now when i traverse the world i have no other choice but to speak in my native tongue which also happens to be the only tongue i am completely fluent in. fortunately for me my ignorance is acceptable because anywhere i have ever been there have been english speakers. i cannot even remotely say that for any other language.
there are two points to this. english is worldwide and will not be going anywhere in anyone's lifetime, and that america needs to get on the ball with promoting real learning of a secondary language and not view it as a past time or extra-curricular activity. |
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nathanrutledge
Joined: 01 May 2008
Location: Marakesh
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:07 pm Post subject: |
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| wishfullthinkng wrote: |
| RangerMcGreggor wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| If the American economy collapsed (big if), there would be no esl jobs in Korea. Why would Koreans blow money on learning the language of country with a collapsed economy? |
Because the USA is not the only country that uses English |
this. because there was never any major focus on really learning a second language in the american education system, i regrettably languished through my developmental years only learning english with sprinkles of french and spanish, but not enough to truly be useful besides cordial greetings and making comments about my pantaloons.
now when i traverse the world i have no other choice but to speak in my native tongue which also happens to be the only tongue i am completely fluent in. fortunately for me my ignorance is acceptable because anywhere i have ever been there have been english speakers. i cannot even remotely say that for any other language.
there are two points to this. english is worldwide and will not be going anywhere in anyone's lifetime, and that america needs to get on the ball with promoting real learning of a secondary language and not view it as a past time or extra-curricular activity. |
Point of information - French was the "lingua franca" of the world within our lifetime and it's all but disappeared, replaced with English.
Second, there is no AMERICAN education system. Speak for yourself with the lack of foreign language - my district (which has one of the largest levels of children living in poverty in the US) offered Spanish and French from 8th-12th grade at all Middle/High schools, and optionally Latin, German, and I BELIEVE Italian at select schools (which anyone could attend through an open enrollment policy). To graduate, one had to take at least 2 years of foreign language - first year in middle school, second year as a freshman.
But honestly, what language is really useful to learn? Mandaran, Spanish, English, and Hindi are the top 4 languages. How many people actually learn Hindi? Arabic is number 5, yet when Islamic terrorism become the hot issue of the 2000's, countries were scrambling to find Arabic speakers. Korean has more speakers than Italian, and depending on how you measure it, French.
Long story short, plenty of options to learn a foreign language in the US, but what's the point? The languages that one would most likely use are spoken by people who most likely speak English as well, and the languages that are the most spoken in the world are in places the vast majority of Americans will never go or need to speak to someone in. |
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wishfullthinkng
Joined: 05 Mar 2010
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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| nathanrutledge wrote: |
Point of information - French was the "lingua franca" of the world within our lifetime and it's all but disappeared, replaced with English.
Second, there is no AMERICAN education system. Speak for yourself with the lack of foreign language - my district (which has one of the largest levels of children living in poverty in the US) offered Spanish and French from 8th-12th grade at all Middle/High schools, and optionally Latin, German, and I BELIEVE Italian at select schools (which anyone could attend through an open enrollment policy). To graduate, one had to take at least 2 years of foreign language - first year in middle school, second year as a freshman.
But honestly, what language is really useful to learn? Mandaran, Spanish, English, and Hindi are the top 4 languages. How many people actually learn Hindi? Arabic is number 5, yet when Islamic terrorism become the hot issue of the 2000's, countries were scrambling to find Arabic speakers. Korean has more speakers than Italian, and depending on how you measure it, French.
Long story short, plenty of options to learn a foreign language in the US, but what's the point? The languages that one would most likely use are spoken by people who most likely speak English as well, and the languages that are the most spoken in the world are in places the vast majority of Americans will never go or need to speak to someone in. |
hmm. i guess i must to be too young. i missed the time when everyone spoke french.
I'm not saying it's impossible, just highly implausible that english would go away in our lifetime or even our childrens lifetime.
as for the "usefulness" in learning a language, well that's always up for debate. i was always interested in japanese culture and should have learned the language (hell, i even worked for a major japanese company for a while and it would have been very useful there) but i didn't, because there was little reinforcement for learning it in my school system but mainly because they simply didn't offer it.
sorry about the generalization of the american education system. while there are differences in districts and states, the large majority of them do not deviate much from the general guidelines established decades ago, and one of those guidelines seems to be a complete lack of caring about other languages. yes, my school made us take two years just as yours did, but without immersion and more studying most people didn't learn much. they saw it just as it was shown, a class needed to graduate, and not something that could be useful down the line.
i compare it to korean schools where you must take english every year and if you are wealthy enough, more english classes after school. even then many korean children still have difficulty with the language. |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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| RangerMcGreggor wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| If the American economy collapsed (big if), there would be no esl jobs in Korea. Why would Koreans blow money on learning the language of country with a collapsed economy? |
Because the USA is not the only country that uses English |
The USA is the largest country that uses English and the most economically significant. Also, since China is next door, brushing up on Hanja is half the battle in communicating with the Chinese.
If the US collapsed economically, the whole world would be screwed and ESL education would no longer be a priority. |
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