Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Ya-ta Boy]

It's here folks The Election of '12 has just become official. Somebody named Larry Sabato has just published the first electoral map for next year's election. I don't know who he is or whether he is trustworthy, but he's the first one out with the numbers that I have seen.

As we all know, the popular vote and national popularity polls do not matter since the prez is elected by the Electoral College. Remember the magic number is 270.

Here's the rundown as Sabato sees it right now:

Safe GOP: 105
Alaska (3); Idaho (4); Montana (3); Wyoming (3); Utah (6); N Dakota (3); S Dakota (3); Nebraska (5); Kansas (6); Oklahoma (7); Arkansas (6); Louisiana (8 ); Kentucky (8 ) Tennessee (11); Mississippi (6); Alabama (9); W Virginia (5); S Carolina (9)

Likely GOP: 65
Arizona (11); Texas (38 ) Georgia (16)

Leans GOP: 10
Missouri (10)

Toss-ups: 111
Nevada (6), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Indiana (11), Ohio (18 ), Florida (29), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), New Hampshire (4).

Leans DEM: 51
New Mexico (5); Wisconsin (10); Michigan (16); Pennsylvania (20)

Likely DEM: 14
Minnesota (10); Maine (4)

Safe DEM: 182
Hawaii (4); Washington (12); Oregon (7); California (55); Illinois (20); New York (29); Vermont (3); Massachusetts (11); Rhode Island (4); Connecticutt (7); New Jersey (14); Delaware (3) Maryland (10); DC (3)

Add Safe, Likely, and Lean and the GOP has: 180
Add Safe, Likely, and Lean and the DEM has: 247

Last thing to remember: It's a loooooooong way to November 2012.

[young_clinton]

Good Obama wins the election. We need to keep the GOP out of the presidency. The idiot GOP that invaded Iraq without a single idea that there might be an insurgency just like Vietnam. The idiot GOP that arrogantly ignored the advice and opinions of other western countries like France, Germany. The idiot GOP that put our economy where it is at now.
Unfortunately it is a long way untill the election.

[Ya-ta Boy]

Once upon a time I had a debate with someone who made up statistics, a lot like Senator Kyl (is it a conservative thing?) and ended up saying, "Well, let the Republicans cut taxes and do whatever they want. Maybe the public needs a dose of unregulated capitalism to remind them why we left it in the first place."

It doesn't look like the public has had enough of it and we need a term of the Donald. And yes, Donald is a conservative and yes he is sitting on top of the pile of conservative candidates.

Are we safe from him? Not entirely:
(Two parts)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/04/21/getting_real_about_obamas_chances_part_1_109618.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/04/22/getting_real_about_obamas_chances_part_ii_109630.html

Summary of topics:

1. The writer says we have an historic record of 9-9 in dumping incumbents
2. A majority of the country thinks the economy is 'poor'
3. Obama is below the 47-48% popularity he needs to win

4. The change in demographics is not fast enough to help Obama
5. The Republican nominee will be from outside Washington, so will benefit from the anti-Washington sentiment
6. Obama's fund raising advantage in '08 only got him to an 8% win


Some of it is true, but the whole thing reads like he's whistling past the graveyard. But I still hope the wingnuts run a third party candidate.

[Kuros]

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Kuros]

[Ya-ta Boy]

As said by many people before, while not all conservatives are Republicans, all Republicans are conservative.

You didn't answer, however. What is the litmus test for being a conservative? (I think there are a lot of country club Republicans who would like to know the answer to that as well.)

[Kuros]

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Space Bar]

[Kuros]

Liberalism and conservatism are worldviews and each are a conscious socio-political approach to the world. There is no one reason why people become liberal or conservative, but there are some commonalities. For example, liberals may believe that "all things being equal, society progresses over time" or that "society is at its best when the people come together to work for a common goal" or that "society's goals should be to mitigate suffering and ensure fairness." Meanwhile, conservatives may believe that "when changes are made to institutions/laws, hidden advantages/virtues become lost" or that "society is at its best when it protects property rights and the natural family unit" or that "society should mitigate suffering and ensure fairness, but should also respect what is sacred and protect what makes us who we are."

Leftism and rightism are positions and dispositions regarding either economic or social politics. It can refer to a difference in degree: a conservative will almost never hold extreme right-wing positions. But mostly, it is a qualitative difference. A leftist or rightist may arrive at the same above values, but not in the same way as a conservative or liberal. A center-leftist and a liberal may hold the exact same positions, but the approach will be different. A liberal will be conscious of the first principles and assumptions (such as above), whereas a center-leftist may not understand how he arrived at his positions. Maybe his party told him to be center-leftist, or its roughly what his friends or family have always believed, or center-leftism just strikes him as correct. You can also have centrists, who just are predisposed to sit in the middle and want compromise partly for its own sake.

To move to concrete examples, there is very little that is conservative about Sarah Palin. She is a rightist. She adopted positions based on group mentality, disposition, and political advantage, and she will fight for those positions and try to win. Meanwhile, someone like Edward Kennedy is a liberal. Sure, he positions are pretty far left, but he is willing to compromise and move with conservatives towards larger principles rather than indulge in petty bickering. Ron Paul is almost certainly a conservative, but reflects an iteration less prone to compromise, and more prone to taking a stand on principle. Nancy Pelosi is almost definitely a leftist, as her positions reflect her marketing and coalition-gathering concerns, and her focus is more on power and political achievement. Conservatives and liberals have some personal depth and conviction beyond group-think (although they may be swayed by social pressures, too) and whether they prefer compromise or taking a stand, they do so with an eye to first principles rather than popularity or ideological purity.

There is no litmus test. This is not a science, but the sciences are for explaining the material world. Politics treats the human psyche and its social aspects. Politics has always been an art.

Lastly, yes, I realize there is a danger in labeling 'rightists I like' as conservatives and vice versa. But nevertheless, you'll see above I conceded Kennedy was a liberal, but I have little affection for him personally.

[lithium]

[Ya-ta Boy]

Interesting response, Kuros. I appreciate you taking the time and thought to give an answer.