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Swampfox10mm
Joined: 24 Mar 2011
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yodanole
Joined: 02 Mar 2003
Location: La Florida
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 Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| I would think that once the population density is low enough that real property might again become more affordable and people feel less crowded that the birth rate would pick up again. |
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Lazio
Joined: 15 Dec 2010
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| Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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South Korea has a very similar birth-rate as Japan and both countries are on the very end of the list. I expect that the birth rate here will fall below the japanese level in a decade or two. Life is getting more and more expensive here.
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If you travel through Gyeongi-do, its impossible to see where one city ends and the other starts as the concrete conurbation spreads for a hundred miles.
One friend discussed with me the fall in the birth rate and suggested to me if there are far fewer people there in the future it will be a much better place to live. |
With some modification this can describe South Korea as well. Except that the population density is much higher in Korea! (487/square km opposed to 339)
Sure it would be a much more livable country with half of the current population but that transition is a huge economical disaster. |
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pegasus64128
Joined: 20 Aug 2011
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| Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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| I remember another thread that discussed how Japanese parents were given subsidies and tax breaks for having a child. So it would seem that it's still not enough. In China, they have the one child policy but that doesn't effect the rich. I taught young students with siblings in Shanghai. We seem to live in an era of population regulation based on wealth alright. |
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PatrickGHBusan
Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -
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| Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 3:23 am Post subject: |
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Low-birth rate seems to come with a nations relative prosperity. Lots of examples out there. This can then be countered with policies to encourage having kids (tax subsidies for example) or through immigration (see Canada for example).
In Japan, so far, the response seems to be a desire to robotize work (develop robots that can take on many jobs and possibly care for people). My brother lives in Japan with his wife (she is from there) and they have kids. Most of their friends have 1 child and no intention to have more.
Korea is heading the same route with families not having many kids or even one. Things have gotten more expensive and other social issues have impacted the decision to start a family or not.
Curious to see how these two countries will deal with this ageing population issue. |
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slothrop
Joined: 03 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 7:17 am Post subject: |
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edit
Last edited by slothrop on Mon May 14, 2012 7:18 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 7:56 am Post subject: Re: Japanese going extinct! |
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Making 1000 year projections of things that involve day to day human decision making, such as reproduction rates, are foolish exercises in nonsense. There is no statistical basis to make such projections.
While much of the world seems far overpopulated today, and many call for drastic reductions in total population to hit some "sustainable" level, no one actually knows what level of human population is sustainable or optimal, either today or at some future date.
Transition to a lower population level that is sustainable may be desireable. It doesn't have to be an economic problem at all. Only our socialistic governments cause population adjustments to be financially painful because of their foolish, deleterious policies. If we change to a free market system, every individual will be able to make the adjustment without the government imposed costs.
In a free market we would hit the optimum population level based on the rational decision making of each individual. The aggregate of those decisions will represent the optimum outcome.
However, under our socialist system, there is no way for anyone to make the "best" choice, no way for individuals to make decisions based on the facts because of the socialized elements and creation of socialized externalities, so no one can determine the best choice nor the optimum level. As a result, the socialized aggregate diverges widely from the optimum due to the impossibility of rational decisionmaking. |
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motiontodismiss
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 7:58 am Post subject: |
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Natural adaptation IMO. The cost of living is rising faster than pay, children are already expensive and are expected to get even more expensive. The same thing is happening in Korea too and I believe Europe to a lesser extent.
Personally, I think the entire world is overpopulated and the population needs to go down to about 3.5 billion people worldwide. The problem with that is once that happens there will be more to go around for everyone, and then the population will rise again. Theoretically speaking. And AFAIC as long as I'm in Korea kids are completely out of the question. They're far too expensive. |
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Swampfox10mm
Joined: 24 Mar 2011
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| Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 5:07 pm Post subject: |
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| I'll tell you what, one way Korea is trying to combat this is by making divorce pretty darned difficult and expensive! I am sure this country has thousands of couples that hate each other still living together just because there is no easy way out. |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 5:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Swampfox10mm wrote: |
| I'll tell you what, one way Korea is trying to combat this is by making divorce pretty darned difficult and expensive! I am sure this country has thousands of couples that hate each other still living together just because there is no easy way out. |
Nonsense.
http://www.international-divorce.com/d-korea.htm
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Grounds for Divorce in Korea
A divorce may be obtained in Korea based on the mutual consent of the spouses. Art. 834, Korean Civil Code. Both spouses need to agree and appear in court in Korea.
Alternatively, the grounds for a judicial divorce in Korea are:
1. An unchaste act (adultery);
2. Malicious desertion;
3. Extreme maltreatment by the other spouse or by his/her lineal ascendants;
4. Extreme maltreatment of one spouse's lineal ascendant by the other spouse;
5. When the death or life of the spouse has been unknown for three years; or
6. Any other serious reason for which it is difficult to continue the marriage. |
So we have SEVEN ways for people to get a divorce. The easiest way (as in your scenario) is if couples hate each other they can simply agree to divorce and appear before a judge. A number of other ways are then listed with number 6 being extremely vague and rather broad in scope.
This is written by a Western law firm (a New York lawyer to be exact who's worked in the field of international family law for many years.
(bolding mine) |
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motiontodismiss
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Swampfox10mm wrote: |
| I'll tell you what, one way Korea is trying to combat this is by making divorce pretty darned difficult and expensive! . |
Let's assume for the sake of agrument that this is true. This increases (or slows the decrease in) the birth rate....how? The only thing it accomplishes is increase the number of unhappy DINK couples.
The biggest reason for the low (and decreasing) birth rate is because children are expensive. NOT because divorce is easy. |
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motiontodismiss
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 6:14 am Post subject: |
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| PatrickGHBusan wrote: |
Curious to see how these two countries will deal with this ageing population issue. |
Korea will just release a bunch of propaganda encouraging people to have kids or import more Southeast Asians, most likely. |
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Hokie21
Joined: 01 Mar 2011
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 6:59 am Post subject: |
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| And whales worldwide are saying..."So you're telling me there's a chance!" |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 7:02 am Post subject: |
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| Hokie21 wrote: |
| And whales worldwide are saying..."So you're telling me there's a chance!" |
indeed |
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PatrickGHBusan
Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 7:04 am Post subject: |
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| motiontodismiss wrote: |
| PatrickGHBusan wrote: |
Curious to see how these two countries will deal with this ageing population issue. |
Korea will just release a bunch of propaganda encouraging people to have kids or import more Southeast Asians, most likely. |
Possible that the government puts forth policies to increase procreation. They would not be the first government to try! All sorts of measures can be proposed to potential parents from tax-breaks to financial help to cheaper daycare. These are all valid measures if a government wishes to encourage a higher birth rate. Still, the trend will be hard to reverse.
In fact the K-government has alreadry implemented and tried to enact policies to encourage more births:
In a designated office in the Ministry for Health, Welfare, and Family Affairs, parents can find a range of services, from special tax breaks for families with more than one child to extra vacation days for men whose wives have given birth.
But bumped against this:
Although the country has seen a slight increase in its fertility rate over the past two years, it still ranks second-lowest in the world, with a rate of 1.2 births per woman, according to the United Nations Population Fund�s (UNDP) State of World Population 2008. The current rate is less than one-fifth that of the 1960s, according to statistics from the health ministry.
We live in Ontario and there is some support for young families but across the border in Quebec they took this a lot further and it did spark what they called a mini-birth boom. My friend who lives in Montreal has a child with his Korean wife. They got a lot of support from the government. Daycare is 7$ per day (waiting list however), they also get 100$ per month from the Federal Government and based on their family income they get something like 250$ per month from Fed and Prov government. On top of that they get tax breaks for lots of things like daycare costs, sports activities for their kids and so on. At the end of the year it adds up! Also, she (his wife) got 50 weeks of paid maternity leave (70% of income for the first 20-some weeks and then 55% till the end), he got 5-weeks of paternal leave at 75% of his income.
These are all measures that aim at encouraging people to start families. I am sure Korea can use a a few of these before opening up to mass-immigration.
As for immigration itself, south east asia would be a natural choice for Korea but like most homogenous populations, a mass-influx of immigration will create tensions and problems. Heck multi-culturalism in Canada is creating tensions!
Back on topic this is an interesting paper (from 2009) on the demographic crisis in Japan...
http://www.eai.nus.edu.sg/BB433.pdf |
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