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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:44 am Post subject: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev warned in a speech in Berlin on Saturday that East-West tensions over the Ukraine crisis were threatening to push the world into a new Cold War, 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall..
Gorbachev, who is credited with forging a rapprochement with the West that led to the demise of communist regimes across Eastern Europe, accused the West, and the United States in particular, of not fulfilling their promises after 1989.
"And yet, while the situation is dramatic, we do not see the main international body, the U.N. Security Council, playing any role or taking any concrete action"
Speaking at an event at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate, Gorbachev said the West had exploited Russia's weakness after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
"Euphoria and triumphalism went to the heads of Western leaders," he said. "Taking advantage of Russia's weakening and the lack of a counterweight, they claimed monopoly leadership and domination of the world, refusing to heed words of caution from many of those present here," he said.
Gorbachev said the West had made mistakes that upset Russia with the enlargement of NATO, with its actions in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya and Syria and with plans for a missile defense system.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-gorbachev-new-cold-war-20141108-story.html
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Could not agree more.
The USSR changed in 1991. The US didn't. They continued to treat Russia as a cold war enemy, instead of viewing them as a potential partner. |
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aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
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| Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:35 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
Could not agree more.
The USSR changed in 1991. The US didn't. They continued to treat Russia as a cold war enemy, instead of viewing them as a potential partner. |
Everyone keeps talking about a new Cold War, but Russia isn't the Soviet Union.
The power disparity between Russia and the West is extreme. The Russians have nowhere near the same kind of economic and political clout that they had during the Cold War.
The only thing Russia has is nukes, oil and gas.
Russia should rightly be given the cold shoulder for their attempts at trying to recreate their lost empire. |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:38 pm Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| aq8knyus wrote: |
| The Russians have nowhere near the same kind of economic and political clout that they had during the Cold War. |
Actually they have more.
During the cold war the USSR economy was nowhere. Now Russias economy is a new entrant to the top ten.
http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/4f59e2e7eab8ea8a6b000000-960/image.jpg
Russia is the world largest country. Almost twice the size of the US.
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| Russia should rightly be given the cold shoulder for their attempts at trying to recreate their lost empire. |
While america is busy trying to create her own empire?
An opportunity has been lost. Russia opened up in 1991. But the west has been stuck in their old mindset: they simply continued their cold war mentality. Now they've pushed Russia into a corner. A wounded bear is dangerous. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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There are two ways to look at the enlargement of NATO.
1) It was a mistake, it angered the Russians/made them insecure, and their current aggression is because of it.
2) The ex-soviet countries that joined NATO were smart not to trust Russia, as evidenced by current Russian expansionism and aggression/Russian history
I find Gorbachev's comments especially interesting after having spent the weekend playing wargames put on by my school and facilitated by U.S. military officers from various War Colleges based on a scenario where Russia invades the Baltic states. I felt like I was back in the Cold War.
The idea that Russia was ever going to be aligned with the West is a chimera, as is the idea that there was some great chance of reconciliation. |
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Lucas
Joined: 11 Sep 2012
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| Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:07 pm Post subject: |
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This thread should give all of you 'history majors' something to debate about.
School hols fast approaching, desk warming (for some  ) - this thread could be a long one....... |
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aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
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| Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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During the Cold War the Soviet economy was at its height almost two thirds the size of the US and half of the US in 1989.
The Russian economy is now smaller than even Britain.
Also you forget that the West is not just the US, the global order rests upon the Euro Atlantic consensus as exemplified by the cosy arrangements for how the IMF and World Bank operate.
The 'West' accounts for well over 50% of global GDP, the Russians are not anywhere near that which is why they are doing their upmost to get cosy with China.
| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| Russia is the world largest country. Almost twice the size of the US. |
Thanks to immigration the US is much bigger than Russia in terms of population and the EU is far bigger than either of them. Also I am not sure what the physical size of the country has to do with anything.
| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| While america is busy trying to create her own empire? |
The US is not annexing border regions.
In anycase the US empire is far more subtle than the Russian variety. What the Russians are doing is trying to redraw borders in Europe, does that not worry you at all?
| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| An opportunity has been lost. Russia opened up in 1991. But the west has been stuck in their old mindset: they simply continued their cold war mentality. Now they've pushed Russia into a corner. A wounded bear is dangerous. |
The Russians still look upon their former empire as their 'sphere of influence'. Their 19th century outlook and inability to accept that they are no longer a superpower is at fault here, they are going through what Britain went through in the 50s and 60s, just with less grace. |
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bigverne
Joined: 12 May 2004
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| Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:54 pm Post subject: |
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| The Russians still look upon their former empire as their 'sphere of influence'. |
The US looks upon the whole world as its sphere of influence. Seems like the Russian view is far more reasonable. |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:07 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| aq8knyus wrote: |
| During the Cold War the Soviet economy was at its height almost two thirds the size of the US and half of the US in 1989. |
Not according to the stats.
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| The Russian economy is now smaller than even Britain. |
As far as I know it always was. But in the first place you should distinguish between the former USSR and Russia.
You give the impression that the Russian economy has shrunk since the soviet union disbanded. Nothing could be further from the truth, it has grown exponentially.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russian_economy_since_fall_of_Soviet_Union.PNG
Economic reforms were only begun 20 years ago but Russia has vastly more economic potential than the UK. |
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aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
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| Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:17 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| aq8knyus wrote: |
| During the Cold War the Soviet economy was at its height almost two thirds the size of the US and half of the US in 1989. |
Not according to the stats.
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| The Russian economy is now smaller than even Britain. |
the Russian economy always was smaller than Britain.
You need to distinguish between the former USSR and Russia.
You give the impression that the Russian economy has shrunk in recent decades. nothing could be further from the truth, it has grown exponentially since 91.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russian_economy_since_fall_of_Soviet_Union.PNG |
Gorbachev said that there is a danger of a new Cold War.
I said there is no danger because Russia doesn't possess anywhere near the same sort of economic, military or political strength that the Soviet Union had at its disposal. The Cold War was a struggle between two mighty superpowers and their satellites.
Russia is not a superpower and is simply not capable of facing down the power of the West. Although it could certainly be a very useful satellite of China and an important instrument of Chinese will.
You are missing the point.
Russia as the dominant force within the Soviet empire meant that it posed a threat and irregardless of how well Russia has done since the collapse, the leaders in Moscow now have nothing like the power they enjoyed during Soviet times.
Russians dominated the Politburo and every major organ of government and they also controlled the KGB in not just Russia, but every other Soviet republic. Their dominance allowed for an official policy of Russification to proceed unchecked in order to promote assimilation and control the republics.
The USSR was a Russian empire in all but name. |
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aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
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| Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:34 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| Economic reforms were only begun 20 years ago but Russia has vastly more economic potential than the UK. |
Considering it has more than twice the population and the largest country on Earth with huge natural resources, you would think Russia's nominal GDP would already be larger than that of the UK.
The fact is that as we have seen with Brazil, Russia is an unknown quantity and projections seem to paint a mixed picture.
If Russia is having trouble keeping up with the UK, how is it going to be able to face down the combined power of the West and their satellites?
Putin's answer: Nuclear and economic blackmail.
He is acting out of weakness and has been doing so since his puppet was sent packing from Kiev.
In a prolonged battle between Russia and the West, Russia will lose everytime. The only hope for Russia is to snuggle up to China and accept the role of a junior partner. |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:24 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| aq8knyus wrote: |
| how is it going to be able to face down the combined power of the West and their satellites? |
Gorbachev brought down the wall and he allowed political change in the entire eastern bloc.
The west should have changed their attitude after 1991 and viewed Russia as a potential partner in a new era.
But thats not what they did. They made Russia into an enemy all over again because their minds couldn't break out of the cold war.
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| his puppet was sent packing from Kiev. |
To be replaced by your puppet instead? And you're not aggressive and imperialist at all? |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:58 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| aq8knyus wrote: |
| how is it going to be able to face down the combined power of the West and their satellites? |
Gorbachev brought down the wall and he allowed political change in the entire eastern bloc.
The west should have changed their attitude after 1991 and viewed Russia as a potential partner in a new era.
But thats not what they did. They made Russia into an enemy all over again because their minds couldn't break out of the cold war.
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| his puppet was sent packing from Kiev. |
To be replaced by your puppet instead? And you're not aggressive and imperialist at all? |
This is a very simplistic take on it. The West was very deeply involved in the transition of the Eastern block, and Russia in particular. You're talking about the wrong things, though. If anything, Russia should be angry for the West's help, especially for promoting the policy of shock therapy.
In terms of not treating Russia as a geopolitical partner- Russia is an observer country to NATO, which is actually a serious thing. However, it's a new world, and many people in Eastern Europe reasonably don't want to be part of Russia's sphere of influence, and those that do are mainly ethnic Russians- many of which are where they are due to Stalin's policy of resettlement. |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:45 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| aq8knyus wrote: |
how is it going to be able to face down the combined power of the West and their satellites? |
Russia has the worlds second strongest and largest military, taking all factors into account. Not exactly the pipsqueak you're making them out to be. And that's not even taking nuclear weapons into account.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
China has the worlds third largest. Team them together and what do you have? yep. Check out the 2014 joint China-Russia military drills. The biggest ever.
http://rt.com/news/182400-sco-military-drills-china/ |
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aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
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| Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:45 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| aq8knyus wrote: |
| how is it going to be able to face down the combined power of the West and their satellites? |
Gorbachev brought down the wall and he allowed political change in the entire eastern bloc.
The west should have changed their attitude after 1991 and viewed Russia as a potential partner in a new era.
But thats not what they did. They made Russia into an enemy all over again because their minds couldn't break out of the cold war.
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| his puppet was sent packing from Kiev. |
To be replaced by your puppet instead? And you're not aggressive and imperialist at all? |
Your whole argument is based on a false premise.
The Russians did not change their attitude.
The Russians lost their empire because economically and politically they were a spent force. The collapse was a confused and messy process that was not desired by the government in Moscow.
After a few years the hardliners were back and Russia began to try and win its lost position of regional hegemon.
The meagre Nato forces of the Baltics and even the major European allies were never a threat to Russia. Russia instead objects to the very idea that their former possessions have the right to choose their own destiny without interference from Moscow. |
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aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
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| Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:57 am Post subject: Re: Gorbachev: the west "succumbed to triumphalism" |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| aq8knyus wrote: |
how is it going to be able to face down the combined power of the West and their satellites? |
Russia has the worlds second strongest and largest military, taking all factors into account. Not exactly the pipsqueak you're making them out to be. And that's not even taking nuclear weapons into account.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
China has the worlds third largest. Team them together and what do you have? yep. Check out the 2014 joint China-Russia military drills. The biggest ever.
http://rt.com/news/182400-sco-military-drills-china/ |
To analyse the relative strengths of a military you need to look at more than just how many poorly trained conscripts they possess.
The North Koreans have a pretty large army as did Saddam's Iraq.
The Russians have limited power projection and huge problems with obsolete equipment.
In anycase direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO is not on the cards as the results would be catastrophic. Instead the West will ultimately overcome because their economic strength and range of strategic advantages far outweigh even the power of Russia and China combined.
To understand how this future competition will evolve look at what is happening at the APEC summit. The Chinese, supported by Russia, are seeking to reconstitute the current order and replace the US and EU as the central hub of global economic power.
That is how great powers will fight it out in this century. |
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